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Bank positions for free & weekly forecast from major banks

  • #281
  • Jan 21, 2021 4:49am Jan 21, 2021 4:49am
The ECB's done great things since 2014: negative rates, QE & PEPP. But it hasn't done enough. Core inflation continues to grind lower, so - relative to the scale of the deflation problem - stimulus just hasn't been aggressive or proactive enough.
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  • #282
  • Jan 21, 2021 5:01am Jan 21, 2021 5:01am
Barclays forecast
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  • #283
  • Jan 21, 2021 5:09am Jan 21, 2021 5:09am
Quoting Bacco
HSBC Daily {image}
GU - 1.3180 / 1.3671; with the current trend now - GU above 1.37, is this not far from reality.
Please advice.
  • #284
  • Jan 21, 2021 5:19am Jan 21, 2021 5:19am
Quoting Bacco
Barclays forecast {image}
Great information. Thanks a million, Bacco.
  • #285
  • Jan 21, 2021 9:45am Jan 21, 2021 9:45am
Citibank yearly outlook
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  • #286
  • Jan 22, 2021 2:44am Jan 22, 2021 2:44am
HSBC Daily
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  • #287
  • Jan 22, 2021 2:45am Jan 22, 2021 2:45am
Barclays newsletter
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  • #288
  • Jan 22, 2021 4:09am Jan 22, 2021 4:09am
I was missing the bacco’s insights
  • #289
  • Jan 22, 2021 8:36am Jan 22, 2021 8:36am
Scotiabank daily
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File Type: pdf FX-Daily-1-22.pdf   493 KB | 199 downloads
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  • #290
  • Jan 23, 2021 9:19am Jan 23, 2021 9:19am
Dealers: (smart money). They buy when the price get cheaper (downtrend) and sell when demand increase (uptrend). So they are counter trend, but they are who sell to market. Thats why smart money.

Speculators: trend follower. In my graph are represented as gbp usd tot position, i do the calculation with both leverage fund and asset manager.

Here is my view for coming week.

Dealers long are below 10%, they are not buying at all. is when price start to make the top
Dealer short are in extreme territory, is almost 25%. Looking at the past only in 2017 and 2018 went above 30%, but looking at the average, is when they start to close the sell contracts.

Speculator: we are in positive territory and long contracts are reaching the extreme.

This doesnt mean i cant go up. I am only careful opening longs now (depends where and for how many pips).

So for intraday, you dont really need cot report. Medium term, is worth to have a look.
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Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #291
  • Jan 23, 2021 9:11pm Jan 23, 2021 9:11pm
Quoting Bacco
Dealers: (smart money). They buy when the price get cheaper (downtrend) and sell when demand increase (uptrend). So they are counter trend, but they are who sell to market. Thats why smart money. Speculators: trend follower. In my graph are represented as gbp usd tot position, i do the calculation with both leverage fund and asset manager. Here is my view for coming week. Dealers long are below 10%, they are not buying at all. is when price start to make the top Dealer short are in extreme territory, is almost 25%. Looking at the past only in 2017...
Maybe I am wrong, but it seems to me that the retail traders are the ones who are mostly trying to counter the trend, hoping to hit tops or bottoms. The smart money keeps the trend moving in the same direction, pushing it to extremes. When the extremes are met, retail finally gives up on counter trend trading and goes with the apparent trend. But it's too late. The smart money pulls the rug from under their feet and reverses the trend. Retail doesn't catch it, because they think it is just a pullback, and thus they continue to buy or sell in the wrong direction. They get lucky from time to time, but the market has a way of getting that money back. Only few retail traders really make it.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #292
  • Jan 24, 2021 12:29am Jan 24, 2021 12:29am
joined, can you also post source if its allowed
  • #293
  • Jan 24, 2021 4:34am Jan 24, 2021 4:34am
Quoting here2there
{quote} Maybe I am wrong, but it seems to me that the retail traders are the ones who are mostly trying to counter the trend, hoping to hit tops or bottoms. The smart money keeps the trend moving in the same direction, pushing it to extremes. When the extremes are met, retail finally gives up on counter trend trading and goes with the apparent trend. But it's too late. The smart money pulls the rug from under their feet and reverses the trend. Retail doesn't catch it, because they think it is just a pullback, and thus they continue to buy or sell...
I disagree. Market is driven from speculators, whom are buying from dealers. Retail simply are countertrend. I Ve seen it many times. Retail long, market short, market start to long while retail are long, they switch to short.
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  • #294
  • Jan 24, 2021 4:45am Jan 24, 2021 4:45am
Hi Bacco! What do u think about -1% reduction SMART MONEY OI SHORT?
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  • #295
  • Jan 24, 2021 4:56am Jan 24, 2021 4:56am
Quoting helioss
Hi Bacco! What do u think about -1% reduction SMART MONEY OI SHORT? {image}
Less short means less sell to the market. I look at the extremes. Catch the movement every week is hard. But when longs or short are too exposed they start to take profit.
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  • #296
  • Jan 25, 2021 2:43am Jan 25, 2021 2:43am
HSBC Daily
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File Type: pdf dfx-20210125.pdf   727 KB | 181 downloads
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  • #297
  • Jan 25, 2021 4:56am Jan 25, 2021 4:56am
Weekly sentiment ScotiaBank
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File Type: pdf FX-Weekly-Sentiment-1-22.pdf   487 KB | 188 downloads
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  • #298
  • Jan 25, 2021 7:53am Jan 25, 2021 7:53am
ScotiaBank daily
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File Type: pdf FX-Daily-1-25.pdf   487 KB | 176 downloads
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  • #299
  • Jan 25, 2021 10:13am Jan 25, 2021 10:13am
CitiBank Weekly
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File Type: pdf fx_insight_e.pdf   898 KB | 318 downloads
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  • #300
  • Jan 26, 2021 4:07am Jan 26, 2021 4:07am
HSBC daily
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File Type: pdf dfx-20210126.pdf   724 KB | 287 downloads
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