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(binned per thread starter’s request) 200MA f(x) Trading

  • #21
  • Jan 12, 2021 10:58pm Jan 12, 2021 10:58pm
there maybe some development coming from a 1-2-3 pattern on e/u using the high 1.23500 to low 1.21300 with a fib retrace between the 50 and 61.8 area- or it will reject this 38.2 area as a false break and head down further/ Look left on the 4hr chart for the current support, on it now, and if you see any price action signals between the 50 and 61.8 area jump in there.
  • #22
  • Jan 13, 2021 1:13am Jan 13, 2021 1:13am
Quoting peterhenders
{quote} and what pattern is that?
Long long story,i will explain soon,i hope you are a fan of price action and little or no indicators :-)
  • #23
  • Jan 13, 2021 2:56am Jan 13, 2021 2:56am
Would love to learn from this thread! Thanks a ton
  • #24
  • Jan 13, 2021 4:01am Jan 13, 2021 4:01am
Quoting scsstnt
{quote} Long long story,i will explain soon,i hope you are a fan of price action and little or no indicators :-)
yes mate I am a fan of price action but there seems no connection to any patterns, from what I can see, in the area you have mentioned .
  • #25
  • Jan 13, 2021 4:02am Jan 13, 2021 4:02am
Hats off to you for being able to quit your job and trade currencies full-time. Well done.

Happy pipping.
  • #26
  • Jan 13, 2021 4:12am Jan 13, 2021 4:12am
Hello MnrComposite, my longer term strategy is also based on the 200 eMA and it's pretty much similar to yours. I'd like to ask how do you choose when it's time to close the trade? I use a second faster eMA and trail the stop gradually as the trend develop but sometimes i give back a lot of pips. I don't really mind that much but i'm curious if you have a better exit strategy.
Personally i think exit a trade is as much as difficult as enter (if not more difficult sometimes).

Cheers.
  • #27
  • Jan 13, 2021 8:58am Jan 13, 2021 8:58am
Thank you for the thread. On the trade mechanics side, how frequently do you monitor the charts? Do you use an alert indicator. Do you trade during the London Open period when it is 3am for you? When you trade 1H charts, the days can become unending and the sleep non-existent.
  • #28
  • Jan 13, 2021 10:25am Jan 13, 2021 10:25am
Quoting Ryder
Thank you for the thread. On the trade mechanics side, how frequently do you monitor the charts? Do you use an alert indicator. Do you trade during the London Open period when it is 3am for you? When you trade 1H charts, the days can become unending and the sleep non-existent.
So once I put on a trade, I don't really monitor it (or shouldn't haha). Because again, I am ONLY focused on RISK TAKING. Once I take the risk of putting the position on, my work is done and however the die is cast, is how its cast.

In terms of looking for entries, I have what I call a "live watchlist" which constantly monitors all 28 pairs and shows which ones are "in play" by definition of the f(x) (will cover this later, what makes one in play), but in other words, if it's in play, it means statistically, entering now should yield a +EV (expected value) decision.

But this still doesn't mean you trade whatever is in play because you need to worry about overall exposure to any one currency, available margin, etc to stabilize your equity curve and reduce variance as much as possible.

The reason is, just because every decision we take is +EV in space, doesn't mean our equity curve will realize that in time.

My next post is going to really cover this idea between the differences in space analysis and time analysis when it comes to statistics and probabilities.

The simplest way to put the idea though is, what we will observe in time can be completely different than what is calculated from the space of all our observations.

I will explain this in great detail later, along with why rule #2 is important in terms of positioning ourselves to benefit from this idea that the averages observed in any one obversation will never equal the average we calculate from the ensemble of all our obvseration.
Viewing the market through f(x)
  • #29
  • Jan 13, 2021 11:00am Jan 13, 2021 11:00am
Taking USDJPY Long.

Setup forming just as we would like to see it. The model suggests this is a pretty high probability setup (greater than 50% probability of profit). With RR being offered by the market, it worth taking the risk!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Only downside is it's adding to our JPY exposure, but as I said, you want to strive to be as neutral as possible but you can't be perfect. It won't mean you will lose in the long run if you don't, all it means is what you observe in time in terms of PnL will not match what you theoretically are observing in space (ev of each deal).
Viewing the market through f(x)
  • #30
  • Edited 3:08pm Jan 13, 2021 2:46pm | Edited 3:08pm
Interesting thread, subscribed!.
  • #31
  • Edited 4:00pm Jan 13, 2021 3:09pm | Edited 4:00pm
AUDJPY and USDJPY trades are basically stuck at entry.

Shorting EURJPY to hedge the JPY exposure a bit.

Will be looking to short another JPY pair if it's in play to be hedged completely on JPY. We will see what the market provides though.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Viewing the market through f(x)
  • #32
  • Jan 13, 2021 3:12pm Jan 13, 2021 3:12pm
Quoting MnrComposite
Taking USDJPY Long. Setup forming just as we would like to see it. The model suggests this is a pretty high probability setup (greater than 50% probability of profit). With RR being offered by the market, it worth taking the risk! {image} Only downside is it's adding to our JPY exposure, but as I said, you want to strive to be as neutral as possible but you can't be perfect. It won't mean you will lose in the long run if you don't, all it means is what you observe in time in terms of PnL will not match what you theoretically are observing in space...
i think this is the best thread what i have seen on FF.

i dont understad the entry complettely. i understand that you are looking for the turning point. But how do you know that where is the turning point?
  • #33
  • Jan 13, 2021 3:12pm Jan 13, 2021 3:12pm
Quoting MnrComposite
EURUSD looks to be heading for the stop. Very likely to get stopped out. We are setting up to watch a great development for our next entry though. {image} You can see that we are below the 200 MA and have recently made a nice lower low around 1.2130. We are currently in a pullback heading back towards the MA. We will want to watch here for a new lower high to be formed, and once price starts consolidating around here and turning back down, we will look to short again. You want to picture this playing out before it does, so if/when it does, it's...

This played out exactly as expected. Too bad I missed the entry while sleeping
Viewing the market through f(x)
  • #34
  • Jan 13, 2021 3:19pm Jan 13, 2021 3:19pm
thanks
  • #35
  • Jan 13, 2021 3:20pm Jan 13, 2021 3:20pm
Quoting Tylerz
{quote} i think this is the best thread what i have seen on FF. i dont understad the entry complettely. i understand that you are looking for the turning point. But how do you know that where is the turning point?
So the general, intuitive way to describe it that most traders will understand/relate to is, if we are trending up, we are looking for a lower high and then a continuation of anywhere from 20-40 pips from that area. Typically looking for RR anywhere from 1:4 to 1:1.5 (sometimes even closer to 1:1 but typically don't go lower than 1:1.5).

The close we are to the lower high, the higher the RR. around 20 pips will produce about 1:4-1:3 area. The 40 pip range gets us close to the 1:2-1:1.5 range.

I will explain the data behind this later, just need to find time to write the post. I am currently drafting the space and time one now and will get into the data around entries after that.
Viewing the market through f(x)
  • #36
  • Jan 13, 2021 3:56pm Jan 13, 2021 3:56pm
Once spreads tighten again after the close will be looking to get short NZDUSD.

Set up looks really nice...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Need to free up some margin though so we will see...
Viewing the market through f(x)
  • #37
  • Jan 14, 2021 1:53am Jan 14, 2021 1:53am
hi mates
any idea for gold?
  • #38
  • Jan 14, 2021 5:35am Jan 14, 2021 5:35am
Quoting MnrComposite
{quote} So the general, intuitive way to describe it that most traders will understand/relate to is, if we are trending up, we are looking for a lower high ....
Do you mean "higher low"?

And do you have an objective definition of a swing?

Regards,
Blackeagle
  • #39
  • Jan 14, 2021 5:54am Jan 14, 2021 5:54am
You better get back to that work in IT as you will blow your account sooner or later by it, its works for now because of situation of the market, later it will stop working and what you will do? also "we are looking for a lower high" lmao you need to lower your high before posting
  • #40
  • Jan 14, 2021 7:03am Jan 14, 2021 7:03am
Quoting Blackeagle
{quote} Do you mean "higher low"? And do you have an objective definition of a swing? Regards, Blackeagle
Yes that is what I mean! I normally don’t use these terms that often and just trade on the data but trying to explain it to others this way before diving into data!


above MA, we want higher lows. Below MA we want lower highs.

im sure I’ll mix it up plenty more!
Viewing the market through f(x)
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