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  • #1,321
  • Nov 6, 2006 11:46am Nov 6, 2006 11:46am
Quoting FXopportunist
He gets the idea from the same place most of us do. From the currencies propensity to move prior to the announcment. It is pure speculation on our part. It could just be plain old traders on their best guess moving tha market but a data leak sure sounds more interesting.
I'm pretty sure there is no data leak - if there was the 'rumour' would hit the news wires and squawks but for UK releases it never does. Read here how seriously the ONS take this issue. Also sometimes a release takes the market by surprise and it moves in the opposite direction to where it was going before - the last B of E hike being a good example.
  • #1,322
  • Nov 6, 2006 11:49am Nov 6, 2006 11:49am
Quoting FXopportunist
So you are stating that candlestick trading doesn't work in forex because it is a 24 hr market? That would mean that the same corresponding daily bar strategies don't work either?

If that is what you are suggesting, I can't agree. Candlesticks and bars are a perfectly valid way to guage price action. Over the years there has been a very good language developed around both bars and candlesticks to help traders see what the market is doing.
If the price rises by 20 pips between 2200 GMT (where some charts start a new daily candle) and midnight GMT (where other charts start a new daily candle) then a doji could easily turn into a hammer or spinning top. So which candlestick do you follow?
  • #1,323
  • Nov 6, 2006 11:59am Nov 6, 2006 11:59am
Quoting notouch
If the price rises by 20 pips between 2200 GMT (where some charts start a new daily candle) and midnight GMT (where other charts start a new daily candle) then a doji could easily turn into a hammer or spinning top. So which candlestick do you follow?
They would all signal reversals so it wouldn't matter which you followed.
  • #1,324
  • Nov 6, 2006 12:15pm Nov 6, 2006 12:15pm
Quoting hidethereal
They would all signal reversals so it wouldn't matter which you followed.
True but if your strategy relies exclusively on dojis then you have a problem.
  • #1,325
  • Nov 6, 2006 12:16pm Nov 6, 2006 12:16pm
End of Day 1 Analysis: Monday Trade


GBP/USD bounced off 8953 level as expected, the difference between day high 9030 and day low 8948 stands at 82 pips suggesting a strong momemtum still exists.

The news items just fit in the daily chart as if they were decided well in advance, because daily charts also happen to be market summary of economic events, one event/data affects another, making the next move kind of predictable.

For Tuesday, Day 2; I expect GBP/USD to trade above the 8902/05 level, but still a lot of consolidation is required here.

A firm break below 8901/05 exposes the 8672 level.
  • #1,326
  • Nov 6, 2006 12:26pm Nov 6, 2006 12:26pm
Quoting notouch
True but if your strategy relies exclusively on dojis then you have a problem.
I would hope that no one would ever try to just take one peice out of candlestick trading and try to trade that without having full knowledge of the entire strategy.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #1,327
  • Nov 6, 2006 12:53pm Nov 6, 2006 12:53pm
Quoting FXopportunist
I would hope that no one would ever try to just take one peice out of candlestick trading and try to trade that without having full knowledge of the entire strategy.

Very true, never rely only on one source, I had the short signs, but no confirmation, doji gave the first confirmation, rest followed later.
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  • #1,328
  • Nov 6, 2006 1:34pm Nov 6, 2006 1:34pm
A doji is significant only depending where it happens, IE at a important SR zone... then it becomes a confluence of factors and not just a doji,, it becomes a microcosm of crowd psychology at that level... either resisting or supporting price.
  • #1,329
  • Nov 6, 2006 3:50pm Nov 6, 2006 3:50pm
I agree, sometimes the doji in 4hr chart is a consolidation to rise or a drop. but near strong swing highs on daily chart, its more than that. and I didn't go short on doji alone, it was followed by a bearish candle that had a strong close and moreover there was a prior trend to reverse.

Now, I think the close today is good enough to push the pair to 1.8900/8870 tomorrow. what you think? My RSI though is still in a positive phase on daily..
Forex is not easy!
  • #1,330
  • Nov 7, 2006 3:36am Nov 7, 2006 3:36am
Today GBP/USD bullish. I'm doing another analysis on daily chart it shows the price will touch resistance line at 1.9110 (maybe)
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"Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses" George Muzea
  • #1,331
  • Edited Mar 3, 2007 2:56pm Nov 7, 2006 3:49am | Edited Mar 3, 2007 2:56pm
Quoting Qu|cksilver
Today GBP/USD bullish. I'm doing another analysis on daily chart it shows the price will touch resistance line at 1.9110 (maybe)
complements your current median line. I have the same, but didnt show it, as the chart im posting is weekly. resistance is at the same area as you mention (according to this very young pitchfork)

g
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #1,332
  • Nov 7, 2006 4:11am Nov 7, 2006 4:11am
Quoting ghitz
complements your current median line. I have the same, but didnt show it, as the chart im posting is weekly. resistance is at the same area as you mention (according to this very young pitchfork)

g
and a minipitchfork based on the 15min chart, presented on the 60 min chart, that has the same slope as the pink fork (pink lines) which is the same you posted above.

trend is up and likely that price will test median line in your chart, and upper line in yellow weekly pitchfork.

any thoughts?
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #1,333
  • Edited Mar 3, 2007 2:56pm Nov 7, 2006 4:11am | Edited Mar 3, 2007 2:56pm
Quoting ghitz
and a minipitchfork based on the 15min chart, presented on the 60 min chart, that has the same slope as the pink fork (pink lines) which is the same you posted above.

trend is up and likely that price will test median line in your chart, and upper line in yellow weekly pitchfork.

any thoughts?
sorry, missed chart
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #1,334
  • Nov 7, 2006 4:22am Nov 7, 2006 4:22am
I dont have clear picture also today.

When are the exit pols of election ? what time ?

Thx
  • #1,335
  • Nov 7, 2006 5:34am Nov 7, 2006 5:34am
GBP/USD as expected is doing a range trading between 8953 and 9047, a break of either side is needed to break this range and form a clear direction.

In absence of any USD news this week, we are stuck in this range, unless it is broken on either side.
  • #1,336
  • Nov 7, 2006 7:53am Nov 7, 2006 7:53am
We have as of now a clear break of 9047 level [ 61.8% ], which has exposed 9124 level, which if broken could lead gbp/usd to 9330/40 or above.

Or, in scenario 2, it could bounce off the 9124 level.

We need a clear break of 9124 to march upto 9330/40 level which is 161.8% fib level.

9124 here we come !!
  • #1,337
  • Nov 7, 2006 7:57am Nov 7, 2006 7:57am
I'd be happy with scenario #1 then Lion.
  • #1,338
  • Nov 7, 2006 8:45am Nov 7, 2006 8:45am
As expected GU moves on to 9124 ; I would be cautious here, either we bounce off here or we go right through.

Either way I would prefer to keep a tight SL at 9100, once it touches 9124, to lock in profits.
  • #1,339
  • Nov 7, 2006 9:20am Nov 7, 2006 9:20am
superb trades
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  • #1,340
  • Nov 7, 2006 10:06am Nov 7, 2006 10:06am
Junglelion, very good analysis in this pair GBP/USD.. hat-off....thank for your help to all the newbies like me...
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