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  • #2,861
  • Jan 8, 2021 4:48pm Jan 8, 2021 4:48pm
Quoting heispark
Platts JKM hits all-time high at $20.705/MMBtu on cold snap, shipping constraints https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/m...ng-constraints Here in Seoul is really cold now......
Cold winter in north Asia could affect U.S. Nat Gas price......
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,862
  • Jan 9, 2021 6:55pm Jan 9, 2021 6:55pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Some more z-score stuff....... {file}{file}{image}{file}
Still some more z-score stuff.... I take z-score very seriously. It has a huge potential to trading application I think.
For example, this is a z-score application to MACD: https://www.tradingview.com/script/I...ator-LazyBear/
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Other Youtube videos:
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,863
  • Jan 11, 2021 6:13pm Jan 11, 2021 6:13pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Cold winter in north Asia could affect U.S. Nat Gas price...... {image}
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,864
  • Jan 12, 2021 4:26am Jan 12, 2021 4:26am
"Live TE only" thread....
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...trade-explorer

It's a funny thread. No wonder why most people in FF including me have no balls to post live TE.... What do you expect to learn from losers?
FF is just a Facebook of traders (or trader wannabes) and mostly waste of time.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,865
  • Jan 12, 2021 5:10am Jan 12, 2021 5:10am
Can I trust volume data for CFD?
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threa...or-cfd.354578/
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,866
  • Jan 12, 2021 8:51am Jan 12, 2021 8:51am
Quoting heispark
Can I trust volume data for CFD? https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threa...or-cfd.354578/
Whether we buy 0.01 or 1000 lots of a CFD the volume is 1 because we use forex dealers. Even if we used stock brokers the volume is meaningless. This is because shares of a company can be traded on more than one stock exchange so the volume will be the one traded on the stock exchange by your stock dealer.
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  • #2,867
  • Jan 12, 2021 4:45pm Jan 12, 2021 4:45pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} Whether we buy 0.01 or 1000 lots of a CFD the volume is 1 because we use forex dealers. Even if we used stock brokers the volume is meaningless. This is because shares of a company can be traded on more than one stock exchange so the volume will be the one traded on the stock exchange by your stock dealer. {image}
Yes, you're correct. Nowadays dark pools process even bigger volumes so volume data is losing edge. By the way, tick volume in Forex or CFD is still usable. I compared Nat Gas CFD (IC Markets MT4) with Nat Gas Futures (AMP Futures MT5) for VWAP z-score indicator. The result looks marginally similar.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,868
  • Jan 12, 2021 5:53pm Jan 12, 2021 5:53pm
Quoting heispark
Christopher Lewis https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...support-688919 I like his Nat Gas daily analysis and his articles are shown in various media but I don't agree his current view to Nat Gas. He lost buying opportunity as he was too conservative and now he's watching selling opportunity mainly because spring contracts are coming soon and record inventory. However, Nat Gas market has early contango which means professionals view it bullish in a longer term. Also, due to corona...
Chris is watching a selling opportunity (not sure if he really ever trades by the way) now. He was talking about H&S pattern. Personally, I don't trust H&S, pin bar, ... whatsoever patterns. If he believes in H&S, he should know the H&S failure usually targets the top of the head. Anyway, I think he sometimes over-simplifies his analysis. He also covers too many products including oil, gold, forex, .... etc. which I think doesn't allow him in-depth analysis. Even focusing on only one product takes long enough time for proper analysis.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,869
  • Jan 12, 2021 6:43pm Jan 12, 2021 6:43pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} {image}
Dangers in trading Nat Gas...... Short term weather patterns which are very difficult to predict even for the professionals rule Nat Gas prices.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,870
  • Jan 13, 2021 4:42am Jan 13, 2021 4:42am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Dangers in trading Nat Gas...... Short term weather patterns which are very difficult to predict even for the professionals rule Nat Gas prices. {image}
One more reason to trade daily and never keep a trade open at the end of the day
  • #2,871
  • Jan 14, 2021 5:49pm Jan 14, 2021 5:49pm
Goldman forecasts ‘perfect storm’ for global gas markets

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com...l-gas-markets/

Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for key natural gas price benchmarks, saying falling supplies and colder weather in Asia and Europe made for a “perfect bullish storm”.
It sees European balances even tighter on colder weather revisions in North-Western Europe and a deeper-than-expected drop in NW European Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) deliveries.
Goldman lifted its Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price forecasts for the rest of the winter, and calendar years 2021 and 2022, to $8.30 per one million British thermal units (mmBtu), $6.72/mmBtu and $6.48/mmBtu from $6.65, $5.63 and $6.03 previously.
The European benchmark Dutch month-ahead gas contract retreated slightly on Wednesday from an over two-year peak scaled in the previous session.
While Goldman expects tightness in coal markets to moderate from the summer, it sees a slower-than-expected return of Colombian coal supplies, implying higher TTF gas prices later.
“We also raise our 2021/22 winter, 2022 summer and 2022/23 winter TTF forecasts to $6.60/mmBtu, $6.30/mmBtu and $6.90/mmBtu from $5.95, $5.85 and $6.75 previously,” the bank said.
Supply disruptions, shipping delays and strong LNG demand, supported by heavy nuclear maintenance in Japan and a cold start to 2021 in North-Eastern Asia, have significantly tightened the market, Goldman analysts said in a note.
The bank also raised its Japan Korea Marker (JKM) forecasts for balance of winter for 2020/21, and calendar years 2021 and 2022, to $14.30/mmBtu, $8.73/mmBtu and $7.85/mmBtu from $12.65, $7.56 and $7.37 previously.
Goldman reiterated its expectation for a significant upside to NYMEX gas prices this summer to help correct what it sees as a 2.5 billion cubic feet per day market imbalance through October 2021, and maintained its $3.25/mmBtu 2021 summer U.S. gas price forecast.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Bharat Govind Gautam in Bengaluru; Editing by Alexander Smith)
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,872
  • Jan 14, 2021 6:30pm Jan 14, 2021 6:30pm
OTC vs. Exchange

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So I assume Nat Gas futures trading is more transparent than Forex at least in theory .......
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,873
  • Jan 20, 2021 7:06pm Jan 20, 2021 7:06pm
What’s Next For Very Volatile Natural Gas Markets

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-...s-Markets.html

Last week’s record-high spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia may not hold for long, but the surge could be a sign of what the future holds for natural gas prices globally.

The growing LNG trade and the growing importance of LNG on the global gas markets have upended the way part of global gas supply is traded and has made regional gas markets more interconnected. When spot LNG prices rally in north Asia, LNG sellers rush to send cargoes there, leaving fewer LNG supply going to Europe, where natural gas prices rise in a generally tighter market.

Gas Markets Increasingly Interconnected

This happened at the start of 2021, when surging spot LNG prices in Asia incentivized cargoes going to the region, instead of to Europe, and sent UK prompt wholesale gas prices to a two-year high amid unusually freezing temperatures across Britain.
The cold snap raised gas demand in the UK, but fewer LNG arrivals tightened the market, sending wholesale gas prices surging.
The cold spell with temperatures below seasonal norms in most of the northern hemisphere, from Madrid to Tokyo, was the main culprit for soaring spot LNG prices. Yet, the rally also showed that regional gas prices are no longer isolated within their respective region. These days with rising LNG trade globally, when Asia sneezes, Europe catches a cold.

To be sure, most of the LNG traded globally is under long-term contracts linked to oil prices.

But this leaves the spot LNG market more vulnerable to price volatility because of the smaller traded volumes and reduced flexibility to respond to market imbalances compared to other energy commodities, as Financial Times’ Energy Editor David Sheppard notes.

Higher Gas Prices Volatility Could Lie Ahead

While last week’s all-time high spot LNG prices in Asia will not last with the coming of warmer weather, the price spike could be a sign of what’s coming for global gas and LNG markets—higher volatility and generally, higher gas prices.

“While contract gas prices have been low and relatively stable in recent years, this is unlikely to last,” Bruce Robertson, Energy Finance Analyst, Gas/LNG, at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), said in a briefing note last week.

“With lower levels of drilling, financial instability in the oil and gas industry, and low levels of industry investment, it is likely that a new era of higher prices and more volatility is upon us,” Robertson added.

Reduced drilling in the United States—which is now a major LNG exporter accounting for most of the increased LNG export capacity—and the poor financial state of many oil and gas companies operating in America could unsettle the relative stability of the past three years of the Henry Hub gas prices, the U.S. benchmark, which is the reference to calculate the price of U.S. LNG exports, Robertson notes.

“We may be coming to the end of an era of stable gas prices and the effects of this will reverberate globally as the U.S. is now a major exporter,” the analyst said.
The more volatile and higher gas prices could jeopardize as much as US$50 billion of gas-fired power projects in emerging South Asia LNG markets Pakistan, Vietnam, and Bangladesh, according to Robertson.

IEEFA sees lower investment and reduced drilling activity leading to price spikes and volatility at a higher level than in the last three years.

“Gas customers globally can expect an unpredictable time ahead with substantially higher prices being a distinct possibility,” Robertson wrote in the note.

LNG Trade Will Only Grow In Coming Years

As LNG trade continues to grow, short-term and spot LNG contracts have increased as a share of global LNG flows. Even the long-term LNG contracts are indexed to the price of oil, which, history has shown time and again, is also a highly volatile commodity.

Despite the pandemic, LNG trade increased in 2020 compared to 2019, with volumes rising by 3 percent year over year in the first nine months of 2020, according to the first Annual Short Term Gas Market Report 2020 of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), an organization of countries representing 60 percent of the world’s LNG exports and including major gas exporters such as Russia and Qatar.

Spot and short-term LNG trade accounted for 34 percent of global LNG trade in 2019, up from a 31-percent share in 2018, GECF said.

“The higher share was driven by the increasing flexible LNG volumes from the U.S. and an uptick in LNG volumes traded by traders and portfolio players,” GECF says, noting that spot and short-term LNG trade is expected to increase further, driven by increasing flexible volumes from the United States.

The recent record-high spot LNG prices in Asia may have been just a short-lived blip as a result of a ‘perfect storm’ on the market, but growing LNG trade, more flexible contracts, and increasingly interlinked regional markets could put an end to the recent relative stability of global gas prices.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,874
  • Jan 21, 2021 1:21pm Jan 21, 2021 1:21pm
Quoting heispark
What’s Next For Very Volatile Natural Gas Markets
Easy to know what's next More volatility = more profit
  • #2,875
  • Edited 11:49pm Jan 26, 2021 11:37pm | Edited 11:49pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Decided to stick to MotiveWave's built-in DOM History feature instead of buying Bookmap. Bookmap looks a bit too busy to me and it costs $2K for life time license (no discount deducting monthly subscription fees). The feature is more or less similar anyway. {image} Somebody dumped 400 contracts of market order and it's absorbed immediately.... very aggressive /ES market right now. {image}
Quoting heispark
Bookmap vs. MotiveWave DOM History It doesn't look Bookmap has a competitive edge.... Iceberg detector and orderbook imbalance features sound like a joke... Anyway, let me try Bookmap for one month. {image}{image}{image}{image} NinjaTrader and Sierra Chart have similar built-in features with different names such as heatmap or something. No big difference IMHO.....
MotiveWave has changed the name of DOM History to 'Big Trades' in recent update. Especially, I like 'Auto Circle' option which displays relative volume size visually. However, it needs to be improved. When time passes, the circles becomes too small to identify. I reported this to MotiveWave support team for future improvement. Actually, I have made some decent contribution to their product improvement.
I use it as a breakout confirmation.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,876
  • Jan 26, 2021 11:44pm Jan 26, 2021 11:44pm
Quoting heispark
This is official. I am done with day trading. After 10 years of very hard working endeavour, finally I have concluded there's no way to consistently make money in this game. Even if I can make some money, it doesn't big enough to justify my time spending. I am getting old now and I hate spending 4-6 hours a day watching computer monitors. Life is short and this is absolutely waste of my time. I regret I didn't give up earlier or even I started this gambling. It's shame there are so many people waste their time in this gambling. Work hard and save...
Perhaps, I have to lie again. I am coming back to day trading arena. I have made some serious technical break-through recently and have made pretty impressive forward test result. I will be back as early as next month for live day trading. Wish me luck.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,877
  • Feb 1, 2021 11:36pm Feb 1, 2021 11:36pm
What I found in Nat Gas trading (perhaps it's also true to others including forex) is very often market makers run in opposite direction before it finally discloses true direction of the day. You may call it Wykoff spring theory or whatever but anyway it's a repeating behavioral pattern. Also, NG often decides its direction of the day during European session while it often has full of noise during NY session. If you wait until CME market open, you can miss good opportunities.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,878
  • Feb 2, 2021 3:03am Feb 2, 2021 3:03am
Quoting heispark
Nat Gas is in a critical moment..... Up or down? Very interesting. My gut feeling is selling at this time is not very good idea..... Currently I have March-April spread (widow maker spread) trading which is in some drawdown. It may end in BE or small loss. Anyway, it still has some time to recover. https://youtu.be/mL4aw5ETV3k https://youtu.be/rWpbQgmrQxo https://www.barchart.com/story/futur...ish-eia-report Feb Nymex...
Closed this widow spread with $540 loss including commission due to unexpected warmer than normal U.S. winter. For me, this is the first loss trading calendar spread. Better not to touch shoulder months spread. Anyway, it was small leverage due to high volatility and I am glad I am out safely.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,879
  • Feb 2, 2021 6:55pm Feb 2, 2021 6:55pm
I heard Mladen's father has passed away recently. I am so sorry to hear that. May he rest in peace......
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,880
  • Feb 2, 2021 9:43pm Feb 2, 2021 9:43pm
US natural gas storage fields set to post largest withdrawal of heating season

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/m...heating-season
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
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