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What have you learned?

  • #61
  • Jan 10, 2021 5:09am Jan 10, 2021 5:09am
Trading statistics are important.
With them, you learn
1. where to place your stops
2. what is a dead market or a parabolic market in the absence of true volume
3. about how much time you should give for a trade to get to your target
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #62
  • Jan 10, 2021 4:26pm Jan 10, 2021 4:26pm
Not to listen to financial news is probably the most beneficial !
  • #63
  • Jan 11, 2021 9:00pm Jan 11, 2021 9:00pm
Quoting jmn5611
I guess I will post cryptic charts here and the experienced will see my simple strategy. The rest, well, we will see what is next. There are no secrets and no edges. This thread will remain open, post whatever you like. I repeat, this will be random. It is not a system thread as much as philosophy thread.
WCB jmn. Looking forward for your posts
Videsha Mudal Welenda
  • #64
  • Jan 12, 2021 2:18am Jan 12, 2021 2:18am
New TDI/RSI/MACD traders make a common error.

They try to trade dead markets. They do not know their asset, so they will take a crossover on a candle that is well below the average range of a candle in an active market.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #65
  • Jan 12, 2021 2:52am Jan 12, 2021 2:52am
Quoting jmn5611
New TDI/RSI/MACD traders make a common error. They try to trade dead markets. They do not know their asset, so they will take a crossover on a candle that is well below the average range of a candle in an active market.
Hello jmn5611
how can a trader know the average range of a candle in an active market?
and any indicator to figure that out?
Thanks
  • #66
  • Jan 12, 2021 3:45am Jan 12, 2021 3:45am
Quoting learnfast
{quote} Hello jmn5611 how can a trader know the average range of a candle in an active market? and any indicator to figure that out? Thanks
Have you heard of ATR indicator ? (Average True Range).
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #67
  • Jan 12, 2021 6:11am Jan 12, 2021 6:11am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Have you heard of ATR indicator ? (Average True Range).
Hi Shabs, thanks for posting.

The problem with the ATR is that it calculates the range of ALL the bars on the charts. This means that it will include outliers that will impact the accuracy of your results. This is called Kurtosis. What needs to happens is that the kurtosis of the data must be cleansed, and the ATR alone cannot do that.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #68
  • Jan 12, 2021 6:42am Jan 12, 2021 6:42am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Hi Shabs, thanks for posting. The problem with the ATR is that it calculates the range of ALL the bars on the charts. This means that it will include outliers that will impact the accuracy of your results. This is called Kurtosis. What needs to happens is that the kurtosis of the data must be cleansed, and the ATR alone cannot do that.
https://www.macroption.com/atr-explained/

I realise it is a moving average based smoothing. But for my purposes of setting stoplosses it works well.
Maybe that's why its called the average true range.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #69
  • Jan 12, 2021 7:14am Jan 12, 2021 7:14am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} https://www.macroption.com/atr-explained/ I realise it is a moving average based smoothing. But for my purposes of setting stoplosses it works well. Maybe that's why its called the average true range.
Again, the problem with the ATR is that it is not a clean average. It averages all data, it does not filter outliers. This means that your ATR does not filter for truly relevant data. The data is dirty. Dirty data leads to dirty results.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #70
  • Jan 12, 2021 7:41am Jan 12, 2021 7:41am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Hi Shabs, thanks for posting. The problem with the ATR is that it calculates the range of ALL the bars on the charts. This means that it will include outliers that will impact the accuracy of your results. This is called Kurtosis. What needs to happens is that the kurtosis of the data must be cleansed, and the ATR alone cannot do that.
Great, that is why I asked if you mind throwing us a bone , I don't mind doing the home work, just point me towards the right direction. Thanks
  • #71
  • Jan 12, 2021 8:06am Jan 12, 2021 8:06am
Quoting learnfast
{quote} Great, that is why I asked if you mind throwing us a bone , I don't mind doing the home work, just point me towards the right direction. Thanks
What do you mean by throwing you a bone ?
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #72
  • Jan 12, 2021 8:17am Jan 12, 2021 8:17am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Again, the problem with the ATR is that it is not a clean average. It averages all data, it does not filter outliers. This means that your ATR does not filter for truly relevant data. The data is dirty. Dirty data leads to dirty results.
Trading can be as Complicated or as Simple as you want it to be.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #73
  • Jan 12, 2021 8:25am Jan 12, 2021 8:25am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Trading can be as Complicated or as Simple as you want it to be.
Yes, trading is like transportation. A bicycle will get you to where you want to go, but a car will get you there faster, more efficiently, and under more diverse conditions.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #74
  • Jan 12, 2021 8:26am Jan 12, 2021 8:26am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Yes, trading is like transportation. A bicycle will get you to where you want to go, but a car will get you there faster, more efficiently, and under more diverse conditions.
And you don't need to know how the bicycle or the car works.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #75
  • Jan 12, 2021 8:54am Jan 12, 2021 8:54am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} And you don't need to know how the bicycle or the car works.
Well, not quite.

If you do not know that the bicycle needs you to pedal it, you will go nowhere.
In a car, if you step on the break instead of the gas, you will also go nowhere.

A lot of retail traders look at a chart with that same mindset, they buy into selling, and sell into buying. They also take on risk while losing, and avoid risk while winning.
Both of those behaviors are exactly backwards, and that is why they lose.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #76
  • Jan 12, 2021 9:14am Jan 12, 2021 9:14am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Well, not quite. If you do not know that the bicycle needs you to pedal it, you will go nowhere. In a car, if you step on the break instead of the gas, you will also go nowhere. A lot of retail traders look at a chart with that same mindset, they buy into selling, and sell into buying. They also take on risk while losing, and avoid risk while winning. Both of those behaviors are exactly backwards, and that is why they lose.
You're being Pedantic with the metaphor.

You know what I meant.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #77
  • Jan 12, 2021 9:20am Jan 12, 2021 9:20am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} You're being Pedantic with the metaphor. You know what I meant.
Maybe I did not.

You seem to suggest that a trader does not need to know how their market works.

Did I miss read you?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #78
  • Jan 12, 2021 9:44am Jan 12, 2021 9:44am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Maybe I did not. You seem to suggest that a trader does not need to know how their market works. Did I miss read you?
Of course you need to know how the market works. Knowledge is important, You never stop learning.
Of course you need the basics as a foundation, like learning to drive a car or ride a bicycle.
But do you need to know applied physics or advanced mathematics to get from point A to Point B ?

What I meant is that a trader often makes things more complicated than they need it to be.

Einstein quotes that come to mind :
"If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough".
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not Simpler".
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #79
  • Jan 12, 2021 2:02pm Jan 12, 2021 2:02pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Of course you need to know how the market works. Knowledge is important, You never stop learning. Of course you need the basics as a foundation, like learning to drive a car or ride a bicycle. But do you need to know applied physics or advanced mathematics to get from point A to Point B ? What I meant is that a trader often makes things more complicated than they need it to be. Einstein quotes that come to mind : "If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough". "Make everything as simple as possible, but not Simpler"....
Market is complex, if it was simple everybody makes money. Simple ideas from retail traders forum are not solution to a complex market. That's why most people lose. Twisting this around is silly and arrogant with no basis.
Know what you trade
  • #80
  • Jan 12, 2021 2:28pm Jan 12, 2021 2:28pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Again, the problem with the ATR is that it is not a clean average. It averages all data, it does not filter outliers. This means that your ATR does not filter for truly relevant data. The data is dirty. Dirty data leads to dirty results.
Hi jmn5611

The ATR can tell us everything if we have a better source of volume and have access to delta values. We need to know if there is a battle occurring in a large wide ranging candle between buyers or sellers, or in a smaller candle, are we looking at primary buyers or sellers.

Personally for example, I trade small bullish ATR candles after a big bearish move on the rebound once I know the orders are all coming from buyers. The reason it’s small is because there is no battle field within that candle.
Basically I trade when the sellers have F....d off.
The ATR is very important.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
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