'Death Thro' move signals top of US Stock Market?

Don't post often these days, but when I do, I consider it significant.

My last post on January 28th https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post12725611 ( see chart below ) drew attention to the massive diversion pattern on the Dow Jones which I trade, and the rest as they say, is history.

As you all know, the pfizer vaccine news caused unbelievable moves to the upside on all the major global stock markets, and these moves are the reason for today's post.

Those who have followed me here on ff during the ten years I have been posting will know of the term ' Death Thro ', which I use to identify sudden, aggressive and exaggerated moves to the upside in an upward trend, though it can be used in bear markets as well. Time and time again, I have seen these moves signal the top or bottom of a market prior to a major reversal.

The daily Dow chart attached here shows all the hallmarks of the death thro - an extended candle closing well below its highs.

Have we just seen the death thro in US stocks? I think we may have.

Following up on yesterday's post above, attached is the Dow hourly chart for today. As you can see, the price is falling in the early New York session ( yes, I know it's a bank holiday in the US today ). The fibs you see marked are the all-important 61.8% & 76.4%, the levels I would have expected to come into play as resistance following the big pfizer moves a couple of days ago. So far, it is the 61.8% that has held the retrace. If it fails to hold, then above is the 76.4%, and if it breaks above that, then the chances are that the Dow will break to new highs. If it cannot break above either the 61.8 or the 76.4% retracement fib levels, then this could be as far as the big US indecis go, and I am looking at this purely from a technical viewpoint.

Lovely double top on Dow this morning, so we'll see if it holds. Death Throe candle shown here on this H6 chart. So far, 345 pips down off the doubler top.

90m Dow chart here showing yesterday's double top. Should hit pivot S2 today just above the 100sma though it may well be bought up a bit at the NY open, though downward momentum looking very strong atm.

Looks like the Dow is about to test a triple top.

New highs and beyond, or are we about to see a classic triple top reversal?

Every trader out there knows this is a massive level, so now the battle between the bulls and bears begins. just depends which side is more heavily weighted. The double top came down - will the triple do the same? We may find out today as the battle may end quickly and decisively, or it could continue all week.

Up, its always up, the bears won't win whilst the fed is printing/rates are low. Happy to be proved wrong though.

I agree. I can't see any reason fundamentally for stocks to come down, but these big technical levels add a bit of spice to the trading day. Remember though, that the markets are nothing more than a casino, and if this level holds for long enough, the big money, or at least some of it, begins to get jittery and starts to sell, and once more money gets taken off the table, the selling begins to snowball. At this level, it really is anyone's guess which way it'll go. As mostly intraday retail traders, we must trade only what we see, not what we think.

https://www.facebook.com/10485714479...98108416986536

Attached is a short video showing what is going on with the price on the Dow following its rejection, so far, off of the triple top mentioned in yesterday's post. It's a facebook page, but it should be viewable to anyone with a FB account.

It's a new page, so if anyone wants to follow it, just let me know, as I'll be adding content specific to the Dow from time to time, or at least as often as is convenient.

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