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  • #201
  • Jan 8, 2021 1:10am Jan 8, 2021 1:10am
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} I see where you're going but very risky IMHO

you were right

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  • #202
  • Jan 8, 2021 1:41am Jan 8, 2021 1:41am
Quoting orbwarp
Gbpjpy 15 Min. Could of had 3-1 RR but held now thinking it should hold the supply area to go down again potentially more on table looking at h4 but as per Winston trying 15 Min with a set rr as mm / risk is definitely my weak point. {image}
Hit my stop on this 14101, any reason I should not have traded this supply wrb ? Or just unlucky..
  • #203
  • Jan 8, 2021 2:15am Jan 8, 2021 2:15am
Quoting orbwarp
{quote} Hit my stop on this 14101, any reason I should not have traded this supply wrb ? Or just unlucky..
see the post #191 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/13348130#post13348130
we are in uptrend, making HH & HL, up channel, many & respected demand zones. counter trend trades are always riskier. I suggest you first do only trades with the trend before going counter trend trading, its safer and easier.
The more you learn the more you earn
  • #204
  • Jan 8, 2021 2:22am Jan 8, 2021 2:22am
Quoting orbwarp
{quote} Hit my stop on this 14101, any reason I should not have traded this supply wrb ? Or just unlucky..
Hi orb, in my humble opinion, I like to draw for zones on a 4hr chart, so for that to be a trade it would need to have rejected or given some sort of price action in that zone for it to be a trade.

Also my SL would have been above that zone if I was thinking about trading it, and with me being fairly new to trading an SL that large would have been an interesting ride

I hope this helps
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  • #205
  • Jan 8, 2021 2:24am Jan 8, 2021 2:24am
Quoting freemind
{quote} see the post #191 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/13348130#post13348130 we are in uptrend, making HH & HL, up channel, many & respected demand zones. counter trend trades are always riskier. I suggest you first do only trades with the trend before going counter trend trading, its safer and easier.
Ok thanks, in the past I have usually gone for counter trend trades on higher timeframes but I can see the WRB method quite clearly now but still new to it. Already entered this USDCAD trade to though which is also counter trend. Will take your advise on the next trade though thanks, I'm also going to stick to 3-1 RR.
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  • #206
  • Jan 8, 2021 3:10am Jan 8, 2021 3:10am
[quote = freemind; 13349018] {quote} vedi il post # 191 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/13348130#post13348130 siamo in trend rialzista, rendendo HH e HL, canale up, molte e rispettate zone di domanda . le operazioni in controtendenza sono sempre più rischiose. Ti suggerisco di fare prima solo scambi con il trend prima di fare trading in controtendenza, è più sicuro e più facile. [/ Quote]


I wanted to ask you one more question about the trend.
do you establish the trend in the time frame in which you carry out operations or go up TM to establish the main trend?
  • #207
  • Jan 8, 2021 4:04am Jan 8, 2021 4:04am
gold is a great example of why we want to respect the trend. of course all trends come to the end, but trend trading is definitely safer than counter-trend trading.
Did not have the best entry and would have added in Asia, but was sleeping. nevertheless, 1:4 RR, a good example of why I like to keep my profit open, especially with gold, as it might spike more than you have anticipated. ALTHOUGH, if we do measure the previous swing move and project it to the new one it would be almost till the pip.
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The more you learn the more you earn
  • #208
  • Jan 8, 2021 7:52am Jan 8, 2021 7:52am
does it get more obvious than this?
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The more you learn the more you earn
  • #209
  • Jan 8, 2021 8:37am Jan 8, 2021 8:37am
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  • #210
  • Jan 8, 2021 9:33am Jan 8, 2021 9:33am
Quoting freemind
does it get more obvious than this? {image}
zooming out the chart and looking at 5min we see at the highs of yesterdays WRB wick which created new lows so that's an important area (also on the previous picture the zone can be seen). was hoping the price will punch through it and move further up. but the previous days lows and highs are always important (at least in my trading) and we had a good reaction from that.
anyway, those who were able to react quickly had a good trade.
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  • #211
  • Jan 8, 2021 9:57am Jan 8, 2021 9:57am
[quote=HiddenGap;13348771]{quote} Awesome question.



Many thanks, Sossos
  • #212
  • Jan 8, 2021 1:01pm Jan 8, 2021 1:01pm
Quoting orbwarp
Gbpjpy 15 Min. Could of had 3-1 RR but held now thinking it should hold the supply area to go down again potentially more on table looking at h4 but as per Winston trying 15 Min with a set rr as mm / risk is definitely my weak point. {image}
The supply area you refer to occurred on 1/4. Price moved down nicely from there and then since 1/5 has been trending up with HHs and HLs. Since 1/5 demand has dominated. Since the supply occurred 3 days ago I would definitely want very good confirmation of which there is precious little once price re engaged the supply. Although one might consider trading down to the very strong demand just below these types of trades are very risky and revising one's R:R should be considered if taking such a trade. I would have been inclined to buy the demand instead with a 3:1 R:R. This would have been what I call a bump/gift.

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  • #213
  • Jan 8, 2021 2:00pm Jan 8, 2021 2:00pm
Hello Sir, I really appreciate your thread of WRB ,Price action and Supply n Demand.Sir I have tested it in live trading and got very amazing resulting with 90% success rate.Sir I want to clarify the points from you as follows:-
1. I am using 15m time frame in GBPUSD pair with bar chart.I am a scalp trader and I am very happy to grab 50-70 pips daily from my trading.I want to know that if I will get three to WRB gaps daily during live trading then for how much time supply n demand will be valid means how much maximum trades I can take from one WRB GAP?
2.if I get a swap of supply into demand or demand into supply can I directly take a trade after cross the of WRB Zone or I have to wait till retest the label again.
  • #214
  • Jan 9, 2021 4:27am Jan 9, 2021 4:27am
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} The supply area you refer to occurred on 1/4. Price moved down nicely from there and then since 1/5 has been trending up with HHs and HLs. Since 1/5 demand has dominated. Since the supply occurred 3 days ago I would definitely want very good confirmation of which there is precious little once price re engaged the supply. Although one might consider trading down to the very strong demand just below these types of trades are very risky and revising one's R:R should be considered if taking such a trade. I would have been inclined to buy the...
Hello Sir, I really appreciate your thread of WRB ,Price action and Supply n Demand.Sir I have tested it in live trading and got very amazing result with 90% success rate.Sir I want to clarify the points from you as follows:-
1. I am using 15m time frame in GBPUSD pair with bar chart.I am a scalp trader and I am very happy to grab 50-70 pips daily from my trading.I want to know that if I will get three to four WRB gaps daily during live trading then for how much time supply n demand will be valid means how much maximum trades I can take from one WRB GAP?
2.if I get a swap of supply into demand or demand into supply can I directly take a trade after cross the of WRB Zone or I have to wait till retest the label again.
3.For how much time supply n demand we can assume valid if i am using 15m time frame.
4.Are there any WRB types that can be use for more than one week or more.
  • #215
  • Jan 9, 2021 11:57am Jan 9, 2021 11:57am
Quoting kuku6181
.... 3.For how much time supply n demand we can assume valid if i am using 15m time frame. 4.Are there any WRB types that can be use for more than one week or more.
I know the question wasn't directed at me, but here are some generalizations with respect to Supply/Demand Zones.

* A Supply/Demand Zone is valid until it is closed.

1. A Zone can be considered closed after the first touch.
2. A Zone can be considered closed after price completely fills the zone.
3. A Zone can be considered closed after there is a full candle body (O-C) above a Supply Zone or below a Demand Zone.
4. TIME is not a factor. In fact, the longer the Zone is open, the more likely the reaction of price when it enters the Zone will be substantial.
5. Some Zones are created by events that potentially change the underlying fundamentals of the market and thus these zones never close (or always remain valid). For example, a Zone created by an FOMC rate announcement.

This was not meant to confuse. Focus on #4. TIME is not a factor. Every Zone has the potential to be open for weeks or more regardless of the time frame the Zone was created.

You need to have a specific set of rules concerning what constitutes the closing of a Zone and stick to that rule-set. But that rule-set should not include the element of TIME. This should make sense. When we look at how price moves away from an area of imbalance (a Zone), the farther away it moves and the longer it stays away, the greater the initial imbalance must have been (and continues to be). Accordingly, the eventual return to that Zone could result in another large move away.

* Point of Clarification:

The term valid should only be used in conjunction with the determination as to whether a Zone exists or does not. Once the validity of the Zone is determined. the issue shifts to what constitutes the closing of said Zone.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #216
  • Jan 9, 2021 12:49pm Jan 9, 2021 12:49pm
Quoting kuku6181
{quote} Hello Sir, I really appreciate your thread of WRB ,Price action and Supply n Demand.Sir I have tested it in live trading and got very amazing result with 90% success rate.Sir I want to clarify the points from you as follows:- 1. I am using 15m time frame in GBPUSD pair with bar chart.I am a scalp trader and I am very happy to grab 50-70 pips daily from my trading.I want to know that if I will get three to four WRB gaps daily during live trading then for how much time supply n demand will be valid means how much maximum trades I can take...
It's difficult to answer your questions in the context of scalping which I do not do. All trades I consider must have a high probability of achieving a 3:1 target so often with one trade I will achieve 50-70 pips risking 15 to 20 pips

Achieving this involves consideration of the following:
1. Trend direction using only the time frame which for now is the 15 minute time frame. As previously stated I don't consider or value multi-time-frame analysis.
2. Within the trend I identify the most relevant WRB/s
3. Supply/Demand: WRBs often highlight interesting"zones" that I may or may not consider for trading.
4. Price Action: Using a variety of price action formations that occur at bar level, swing level and structural level I plan my trade and most often do this by placing a limit order with stop and target. As previously mentioned my target will always be a minimum of 3:1 and based on price structure. If 3:1 doesn't look possible then I merely pass and look elsewhere.

I place much value on WRBs and have developed my own peculiar way of using them in my analysis. Other like HiddenGap use them similarly but with some differences. Neither is better than the other IMHO and what is important is consistency. Using them as an element in scalping may be of some value to you but I think this is something you will have to explore for yourself. I wish you luck.
  • #217
  • Jan 10, 2021 3:12am Jan 10, 2021 3:12am
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} The supply area you refer to occurred on 1/4. Price moved down nicely from there and then since 1/5 has been trending up with HHs and HLs. Since 1/5 demand has dominated. Since the supply occurred 3 days ago I would definitely want very good confirmation of which there is precious little once price re engaged the supply. Although one might consider trading down to the very strong demand just below these types of trades are very risky and revising one's R:R should be considered if taking such a trade. I would have been inclined to buy the...

Thanks Winston, appreciate the advise. One question from your comment 'Since the supply occurred 3 days ago I would definitely want very good confirmation of which there is precious little once price re engaged the supply.' , do you therefore consider s/d areas near the present time more important than older s/d areas, or is it just how price action reacts in the s/d areas, or both? I admit I wasn't considering the uptrend pushing into the supply and also tended to ignore the price action because I saw a large drop from this supply before.

Second question is do you consider larger drops from a s/d more important or is it simply a matter of being confident you will get your 3:1 RR?

I guess I should have closed the trade after it had reach the 3:1 RR in this case. See your gift bump but on this occasion it didn't reach the demand area.

Thanks
  • #218
  • Jan 10, 2021 9:01am Jan 10, 2021 9:01am
Quoting orbwarp
{quote} Thanks Winston, appreciate the advise. One question from your comment 'Since the supply occurred 3 days ago I would definitely want very good confirmation of which there is precious little once price re engaged the supply.' , do you therefore consider s/d areas near the present time more important than older s/d areas, or is it just how price action reacts in the s/d areas, or both? I admit I wasn't considering the uptrend pushing into the supply and also tended to ignore the price action because I saw a large drop from this supply before....
One question from your comment 'Since the supply occurred 3 days ago I would definitely want very good confirmation of which there is precious little once price re engaged the supply.' , do you therefore consider s/d areas near the present time more important than older s/d areas, or is it just how price action reacts in the s/d areas, or both?

I hesitate to say that older s/d areas are less important than newer areas. Personally I just don't look back that far. Some look for zones in higher time frames. I do not. If I cannot see a zone directly to my left without zooming out considerably then I pretty much ignore it and concentrate on current price action. For instance if price has been trending up for some time and any supply zone to the left is quite distant then I will concentrate on demand below current price for two things.

1: Continued up trending behavior where price reacts bullishly at demand.
2: Price action at demand that suggests at least a temporary trend reversal.

I admit I wasn't considering the uptrend pushing into the supply and also tended to ignore the price action because I saw a large drop from this supply before.

Second question is do you consider larger drops from a s/d more important or is it simply a matter of being confident you will get your 3:1 RR?

Price can move away in various ways. I concentrate more on the WRB/s where zones tend to originate from. A violent drop which to me is just a gap often acts like a black hole or a vacuum. It tends to suck price back towards itself. So I tend to look for this rather than assuming that this violent drop will surely mean that this level is strong and so will surely respond as supply when price returns.

3:1 is mandatory for me. 99% of traders are more concerned with entries than R:R and I'll just state it here again. It is the #1 reason why they are not profitable. It is exceedingly difficult to maintain profitability with <3:1.

Finally I tend to just see supply and demand zones as just zones where I can expect to see something interesting happen that will hopefully give me a clue as to direction.
  • #219
  • Jan 10, 2021 4:35pm Jan 10, 2021 4:35pm
Quoting freemind
gold is a great example of why we want to respect the trend. of course all trends come to the end, but trend trading is definitely safer than counter-trend trading. Did not have the best entry and would have added in Asia, but was sleeping. nevertheless, 1:4 RR, a good example of why I like to keep my profit open, especially with gold, as it might spike more than you have anticipated. ALTHOUGH, if we do measure the previous swing move and project it to the new one it would be almost till the pip. {image}
measuring the previous waves is something usefull to use as profit target, and adr aswell. Another tool that ive been using lately is the volume profile, if you merge the profiles volumes between the 21 and 31 in gold for example you would observe a well defined high volume node in the same area, thats often tends to slow down the price moviment
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  • #220
  • Jan 10, 2021 7:22pm Jan 10, 2021 7:22pm
Hi all, perhaps something to watch for today. GBPJPY.
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