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95% failure rate?

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  • Post #121
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  • Jan 7, 2021 7:39pm Jan 7, 2021 7:39pm
  •  Proflection
  • | Additional Username | Joined Jan 2021 | 4 Posts
Quoting fxprocessor
Disliked
{quote} Can you please point me in the right direction for the study that came up with this figure of 95%? thanks
Ignored
Of course there is no real company that sat down and worked out the statistics, it's just that the majority of retail traders lose money because they don't have enough information about the following.

- What the market is
- Who really controls the market against you
- How support and resistance levels are used to set you up to lose (Unless you know the real way of using them correctly)
- How to trade the news

Mainly the third statement I have given here is what every traders first learns, when really they should learn about what the market means and what it shows, apart from some candles hitting lines and expecting it to go in the direction you want it to because

"Wow this is some real support here, let me just go long"
The Banks: Lol let's steal his money

That is how the "95% Statistic" is shown.
 
 
  • Post #122
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  • Jan 9, 2021 6:59am Jan 9, 2021 6:59am
  •  MarcoDresner
  • | Additional Username | Joined Jul 2020 | 131 Posts
For the long run vast majority of traders fail to make continuous profit. Some make occasional profit and not at all. Very few retail traders make good amount of money for the long run. One of the reasons of failure is lack of discipline.
 
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  • Post #123
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  • Jan 12, 2021 3:40pm Jan 12, 2021 3:40pm
  •  lucvixx
  • | Joined Oct 2019 | Status: Junior Member | 5 Posts
Although I agree that effort, patience, discipline and realistic goals are very important, I have become increasingly convinced that most people fail at Forex because Forex is a rigged game.

I've been studying it daily for five years, two of them spent trying to write an EA that is profitable. I've read about a very large number of strategies, tried to implement them all in the EAs, and none of them really works. I've also devised my own strategies by making changes to widely known strategies. I've been programming for almost 20 years and I am quite creative while hammering at obstacles and finding ways around them.

But it seems whoever is behind the Forex structure has already thought about everything and closed every door. You wanna swing? Your stoploss mark will be hit. No stoploss? Well, the price is going to oscillate so much you're going to need a lot of equity and margin to weather it all without any stoploss. Unless you place orders with very tiny lots, but then you won't make enough money for anything in your life. Scalping? Nope. The price will drop as soon as you go long or soar as soon as you go short. Not always, but often enough to keep you losing a lot more than winning, like video poker. Close the trade as soon as it goes negative? It will happen so many times it will just drain your equity slowly but surely. Ignore the whipsaw and hold the position? The position is going to stray so far away you will regret you ever entered it. If your lot is large, you will have to close it and stomach considerable losses or else you might break your account. If your lot is small, your revenue will be so paltry you're better off getting a job. They have covered everything against you.

If you don't use EAs, you're going to use some less rigid logic than that of robots, but there has to be some logic. Whatever it is, it's very flawed. It's magical thinking at best. I have read many books and "courses" found on the Internet. They will make you read thousands and thousands of words that sound wise and knowledgeable, but the summary of them all is always the same: Forex is completely random, nobody really knows where the price is going. No shit. Thousands and thousands of words to say that.

Then how do some people make it? My answer is, do they? How many people make it? Nobody knows. Those who really make it may just have been lucky, assuming they don't have huge wads of money to throw at a trade and know that it is not going to break their large account (for example, if I open a 1.00 lot in EURUSD right now at 1.22017 and set stop loss at 1.11740, I can make 2 thousand dollars in about a week while risking 10 thousand dollars, but the price would have to plunge to seven months ago level to hit that stoploss; what are the odds?), and they make mistakes too, and they don't really know why their entry or exit was wrong. If they did, they would NEVER be wrong. While chance breaks most, it does actually make a few. The price has to go somewhere. Whichever way it goes, somebody is going to win, and those who win occasionally will feel encouraged to keep trying. It's a gold rush, and those who make or sell shovels are the only real winners.

I don't think it's really that random anyway. Like I said, all pathways are blocked to make sure you can't win, at least not much. I am increasingly convinced that is so by design. Knowing the world and human nature, I just cannot believe that such a gigantic gold mine would be left to chance. Why would it??? Somebody somewhere has to be pulling strings to keep most people losing and a few winning sometimes so they won't go away. The "right" numbers are broadcast worldwide and the game goes on. You spot a very clear trend and enter, but it is a bull/bear trap, and you gladly walk right into it. You will curse your own incompetence and will never blame the puppeteers. The great magic of Forex is that it seems to have some logic so we're tricked into believing it's not gambling. But it is. Deep down, you know it. You just don't want to let go of the dream.

Sweet dreams are made of this. Viva Las Vegas.
 
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  • Post #124
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  • Jan 15, 2021 10:51am Jan 15, 2021 10:51am
  •  mlawson71
  • | Additional Username | Joined Dec 2015 | 3,529 Posts
Quoting MarcoDresner
Disliked
For the long run vast majority of traders fail to make continuous profit. Some make occasional profit and not at all. Very few retail traders make good amount of money for the long run. One of the reasons of failure is lack of discipline.
Ignored
True, a lack of discipline is a serious problem. However, people often underestimate how much responsibility brokers carry too. According to a survey conducted by the Australian financial regulator ASIC, a serious reason for trader losses are various shady and unethical practices by the brokers providing the service - ASIC points out that actual client profits are inconsistent with marketing materials; risk management practices for client money are outdated; some referral arrangements may be in breach of selling prohibitions and last but not least that some brokers are providing wholesale services or allowing third parties to ‘white label’ their products without operational capital to supervise counterparties and support their exposures.

This is a serious issue and unfortunately brokers usually get away with it.
 
 
  • Post #125
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  • Jan 15, 2021 12:32pm Jan 15, 2021 12:32pm
  •  ViktorDanie
  • | Additional Username | Joined Jul 2020 | 130 Posts
Quoting MarcoDresner
Disliked
For the long run vast majority of traders fail to make continuous profit. Some make occasional profit and not at all. Very few retail traders make good amount of money for the long run. One of the reasons of failure is lack of discipline.
Ignored
True. Traders also need patience to make consistent profit in trading.
 
 
  • Post #126
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  • Jan 22, 2021 5:00am Jan 22, 2021 5:00am
  •  DexterDuncan
  • | Additional Username | Joined Jul 2020 | 133 Posts
I think most of the traders lose their money in the forex market because of their low knowledge and experience.
 
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  • Post #127
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  • Jan 23, 2021 11:10am Jan 23, 2021 11:10am
  •  mlawson71
  • | Additional Username | Joined Dec 2015 | 3,529 Posts
That is true and it does happen a lot. But I think we should never underestimate what a detrimental effect unethical advertising by brokers has on the newbie traders.
 
 
  • Post #128
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  • Jan 23, 2021 1:00pm Jan 23, 2021 1:00pm
  •  tiborf71
  • Joined Apr 2011 | Status: rookie | 3,099 Posts
Quoting lucvixx
Disliked
Although I agree that effort, patience, discipline and realistic goals are very important, I have become increasingly convinced that most people fail at Forex because Forex is a rigged game. I've been studying it daily for five years, two of them spent trying to write an EA that is profitable. I've read about a very large number of strategies, tried to implement them all in the EAs, and none of them really works. I've also devised my own strategies by making changes to widely known strategies. I've been programming for almost 20 years and I am quite...
Ignored
Well, it's enough to find a strategy where about 3-4 of your trades win. meanwhile, you use martingale wisely.
this is just a suggestion.
 
1
  • Post #129
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  • Feb 2, 2021 6:03am Feb 2, 2021 6:03am
  •  MarcoDresner
  • | Additional Username | Joined Jul 2020 | 131 Posts
Success is achieved by those who are patient and have the determination it takes. The right choice of broker greatly determines your success, since a broker can kill your trading career. Your choice of currencies to trade, trading strategy as well as your level of research and forex market knowledge are also important for your success
 
 
  • Post #130
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  • Feb 2, 2021 8:29pm Feb 2, 2021 8:29pm
  •  SamGoi
  • | Additional Username | Joined Aug 2020 | 109 Posts
A proper trading mindset is required to get success. It is never possible to make money without a trading mindset.
 
 
  • Post #131
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  • Feb 3, 2021 4:42am Feb 3, 2021 4:42am
  •  AlexImam
  • | Additional Username | Joined Apr 2018 | 323 Posts
mind set is important to bring good profit but honestly speaking any level of planning can be useless if there is no money management. so we the traders first of all have to make sure real risk management.
 
 
  • Post #132
  • Quote
  • Feb 3, 2021 11:07am Feb 3, 2021 11:07am
  •  mlawson71
  • | Additional Username | Joined Dec 2015 | 3,529 Posts
Quoting SamGoi
Disliked
A proper trading mindset is required to get success. It is never possible to make money without a trading mindset.
Ignored
What is the proper trading mindset?
 
 
  • Post #133
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  • Feb 3, 2021 10:00pm Feb 3, 2021 10:00pm
  •  lucvixx
  • | Joined Oct 2019 | Status: Junior Member | 5 Posts
Quoting tiborf71
Disliked
{quote} Well, it's enough to find a strategy where about 3-4 of your trades win. meanwhile, you use martingale wisely. this is just a suggestion.
Ignored
"use martingale wisely" is an oxymoron. There is nothing wise about Martingale.
 
 
  • Post #134
  • Quote
  • Feb 9, 2021 11:31am Feb 9, 2021 11:31am
  •  mlawson71
  • | Additional Username | Joined Dec 2015 | 3,529 Posts
I have never know how to use martingale, to be honest.
 
 
  • Post #135
  • Quote
  • Feb 12, 2021 6:50pm Feb 12, 2021 6:50pm
  •  robbydineroz
  • | Joined Feb 2021 | Status: Junior Member | 1 Post
I think it's probably true but you can grow to reach the 5th percentile.
 
 
  • Post #136
  • Quote
  • Feb 13, 2021 6:16am Feb 13, 2021 6:16am
  •  keeleytan
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2016 | 82 Posts
Quoting SamGoi
Disliked
A proper trading mindset is required to get success. It is never possible to make money without a trading mindset.
Ignored
Totally. A good mindset and believing and sticking to your proven system can get you far. You dont have to win much as long as the risk to reward ratio is in your favor. Of course sticking to the 1% risk per trade is essential as there might be 10 straight losses and you will not be wrecked emotionally.
 
 
  • Post #137
  • Quote
  • Feb 13, 2021 6:17am Feb 13, 2021 6:17am
  •  keeleytan
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2016 | 82 Posts
Quoting mlawson71
Disliked
I have never know how to use martingale, to be honest.
Ignored
Used plenty of these system in the past. Unless you have unlimited funds, there will be a time when you encounter many losses in a row and the double of the lot sizes will be too large for your account, hence margin call and wiped your account.
 
 
  • Post #138
  • Quote
  • May 2, 2021 5:07am May 2, 2021 5:07am
  •  AbbasMia
  • | Joined Apr 2021 | Status: Junior Member | 6 Posts
i have a doubt which organization make this statistic , because i have seen a lot of differences between failing rate among Forex forums in online , it start 60% and finishes 98%. what statics newcomers should believe ?
 
 
  • Post #139
  • Quote
  • May 8, 2021 5:29pm May 8, 2021 5:29pm
  •  Varkeer
  • Joined May 2015 | Status: Member | 243 Posts
At least 95% fail.
Love to talk on Discord: DividendGamer#1324
 
 
  • Post #140
  • Quote
  • May 11, 2021 2:55am May 11, 2021 2:55am
  •  Forextobe
  • | Joined Mar 2021 | Status: Member | 62 Posts
Quoting daytrading
Disliked
Hi, I would not ride on the specific number of "95%" - it is more appropriate to look at what this number really means in context: that the vast majority of aspiring traders lose their shirt along the way. But as I mentioned in my previous message, this is common for many professions that only a relative small amount of people make it to the top. The difference is that in trading - since it has become such a widespread endeavour - it is more talked about than failures in other professions. regards daytrading
Ignored
Completely agree with this, there are statistics that most start up businesses fail within 1-3 years, the drop out rate for medical school, law school is high. Anything that is difficult most will not see to the end,

The biggest fallacy is that trading is easy and you can make 1 million in 30 days.

If you treat it like a profession it will pay you like one
 
 
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