Author: Maks Artemov
Dear Clients and Partners,
Oil has become an intrinsic part of our lives, and humanity depends fully on it: oil is not just a source of energy but also the material from which many everyday things are made.
It has long been argued that only large corporations can make money on crude oil but this is wrong. Most types of oil are available for trading in the stock market, the most popular types are BRENT and WTI. The USD is the most widespread currency in the world, used for the biggest part of transactions. The majority of wealthy people keep their capital in the USD. The Canadian dollar is less popular over the globe. It is a commodity currency, which means it reacts actively to commodity prices, oil and gold in particular.
Today, we will discuss the interaction and correlation of oil prices and the CAD. If you look closely at the charts of BRENT and USD/CAD, you will notice certain patterns in the dynamics of the assets. As long as the Canadian economy depends on oil production and selling, USD/CAD quotations correlate with oil ones
What is the correlation?
Correlation is the way assets relate to one another at a certain period. There are three types of correlation:
- Positive correlation means that two instruments are going in one direction during the observation time. The observed assets will rise or fall proportionately. The charts are similar.
- Negative correlation means that the assets are going in the opposite direction. While one asset is growing, the other one will be declining. The charts look mirror-like.
- Zero correlation means that the instruments are acting with no obvious relation to each other.
As long as in the USD/CAD pair the US dollar comes first, the correlation will be negative. This means that the growth of oil will cause a price chart of USD/CAD to fall.
Example of USD/CAD trading
Look at the H4 of USD/CAD and WTI. The WTI quotations broke through the resistance level and started growing. At that moment, the situation on the USD/CAD chart is the opposite: the price began to fall fast. During 8 candlesticks the oil price was growing, then returned top the broken resistance level. As for the price chart, the quotations keep declining, pulling back from time to time. This might mean that Canada made a profit on oil and somewhat secured its national currency against the US dollar. Then if oil quotations keep growing, USD/CAD will be falling, asserting further strengthening of the Canadian dollar.
Though there is an obvious correlation between oil and USD/CAD, it would be wrong to use it for trading without additional filters. The market is full f false surges that provoke unpredictable rises and declines. Anyway, this correlation can be used as a supplementary signal supporting the direction of the price.
Read more at R Blog - RoboForex
Sincerely,
RoboForex team