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  • #81
  • Jan 2, 2021 11:37am Jan 2, 2021 11:37am
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} I have a bit of difficulty seeing the details on your chart but I think I can provide an answer with my analysis. First it's important to understand what price is doing. What is the overall context? I see you have a 30 minute chart. The chart below is the 30 minute chart as I see it. For context I zoom out for trend as is shown on the 30 minute. It's unnecessary to use a higher time frame and would only inject confusion. We can see that price overall is trending UP and that the current move down although impressive must at this time be viewed...
Very clear Winston. Thanks for doing this.
  • #82
  • Jan 2, 2021 3:33pm Jan 2, 2021 3:33pm
Quoting MiladZarei
{quote} i know them as Trigger Filip Levels. i think there is a mistake to measure Wide range with 3 pervious bars when we have a S/D after each time price touches the zone it became More invalid. it can be a Fail Break Out (Stop hunting Move for liquity) or its a real breaking and then we have a new Zone for Trade all of the WBRs have a mission : Stop Hunting or Breaking a Zone
I'll respond to each of your points:

1. i know them as Trigger Filip Levels.
I think you are referring to swap levels.

2. i think there is a mistake to measure Wide range with 3 pervious bars
No mistake. A Wide Range Bar is widely defined by many as one that is significantly larger than the previous 3 bars. One can require more bars if they want but the overall meaning remains the same.

3. when we have a S/D after each time price touches the zone it became More invalid.
No offense but this is a dogmatic statement commonly made by beginning supply and demand traders believing they know something special. S/D is valid until it isn't.

4. it can be a Fail Break Out (Stop hunting Move for liquity) or its a real breaking and then we have a new Zone for Trade
all of the WBRs have a mission : Stop Hunting or Breaking a Zone
News Flash!!! All markets are constantly "stop hunting". It actually has a lot to do with what drives the market. Stop losses and Targets are the same thing for the market. It's not difficult to know where these are and price will always find them. In the end its still just supply and demand. WRBs are just intense evidence of buying and selling and yes they occur when a cluster of stops or targets get hit. Nothing mysterious or nefarious is going on as many believe.
  • #83
  • Jan 2, 2021 3:58pm Jan 2, 2021 3:58pm
Quoting kette
if someone has time he could help me EC to represent {image}
Again your chart is quite dark and it is difficult to make things out. I think your chart was that of EURCAD 30 min.

Zooming out we can see evidence of HHs and LHs. The corrective legs are clear so we must consider the current descent a correction and therefore there is a chance that price will find support and rise for a new high. There are some nice demand levels below.
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These are the levels I think are important for the near term. Just to be clear I'm not suggesting to trade one way or the other.
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  • #84
  • Jan 2, 2021 4:43pm Jan 2, 2021 4:43pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} Again your chart is quite dark and it is difficult to make things out. I think your chart was that of EURCAD 30 min. Zooming out we can see evidence of HHs and LHs. The corrective legs are clear so we must consider the current descent a correction and therefore there is a chance that price will find support and rise for a new high. There are some nice demand levels below. {image} These are the levels I think are important for the near term. Just to be clear I'm not suggesting to trade one way or the other. {image}


many thanks for your effort
I can understand some things
that should be enough now, wait and watch
  • #85
  • Jan 2, 2021 9:28pm Jan 2, 2021 9:28pm
Thank you for sharing your strategy, Winston. Wishing everyone here a profitable 2021 ahead!

Wanted to ask if you ever trade without waiting for a confirmation candle to form? i.e. going long when price reaches a demand zone before price properly bounces off.

Also do you trade during fixed sessions, or anytime during the day when you can get to observe the charts?
  • #86
  • Jan 2, 2021 11:55pm Jan 2, 2021 11:55pm
Quoting Winston Reed
3. when we have a S/D after each time price touches the zone it became More invalid. No offense but this is a dogmatic statement commonly made by beginning supply and demand traders believing they know something special. S/D is valid until it isn't.
* I think there is a modicum of truth in this statement if you are a "touch" trader. "Touch traders place a limit order at the edge of the zone and basically take the trade blindly when the Market comes back to the zone and hits their order. But the proper way a "touch" trader would say it is, each time price touches the zone a trade from that zone has a lower probability. They would not use the word invalid.

Nevertheless, the "touch" trader is largely wrong. A Zone is valid until it isn't.

* The other type of S/D trader is the "confirmation" trader. "Confirmation" traders wait to see some form of confirmation when price moves back into a zone. This confirmation can be in the form of Price Action, Volume Action, Indicator Action, News events, or whatever.

Take a look at the charts below.

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Would you have caught every one of these? Maybe. Maybe not. But the point is that the zone remains "valid" until it is closed. Price can touch a zone multiple times, but as long as the zone is open, a valid entry signal would be possible.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #87
  • Jan 3, 2021 12:10am Jan 3, 2021 12:10am
(Con't.)

So what closes a Zone?

The Zone in the prior post was created by an actual GAP. Therefore, it closes when price completely fills the zone (gap).

Zones created by WRB HiddenGAPs are closed when there is a full candle body above (for Supply) and below (for Demand).

I do not believe in the "Zone Flip or Swap". Unlike support and resistance that are can change polarity, Supply/Demand Delta Zones by my definition cannot.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #88
  • Jan 3, 2021 8:02am Jan 3, 2021 8:02am
first thanks to NAIL FULLER for Hidden gaps in long bars
and with all respect for MR Winston (as i follow him from way long past)

i think we cant finding even 1 little point when we are fighting for our mindset
This is just all about WBR and Hidden Gap

in pervious note Sayed Trigger Filip And its not same as S/D Swap.

News Flash!!! All markets are constantly "stop hunting". It actually has a lot to do with what drives the market. Stop losses and Targets are the same thing for the market. It's not difficult to know where these are and price will always find them. In the end its still just supply and demand. WRBs are just intense evidence of buying and selling and yes they occur when a cluster of stops or targets get hit. Nothing mysterious or nefarious is going on as many believe.
Yes, OFC ,there is No Conspiracy theory in my mind (i dont care about market is searching for liquity or Big boys or ...)
Yes , It is what it is
But if you make difference between Stop Hunt and Spikes you can make a really good trade on that Zone.
this is my idea about caps on price with WBR candles
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Lets the Engulf speaks
  • #89
  • Edited 8:41am Jan 3, 2021 8:30am | Edited 8:41am
Quoting HiddenGap
(Con't.) So what closes a Zone? The Zone in the prior post was created by an actual GAP. Therefore, it closes when price completely fills the zone (gap). Zones created by WRB HiddenGAPs are closed when there is a full candle body above (for Supply) and below (for Demand). I do not believe in the "Zone Flip or Swap". Unlike support and resistance that are can change polarity, Supply/Demand Delta Zones by my definition cannot.
Touch vs confirmation: Most of my trades are confirmed in some way by an array of price action. This price action I refer to consists largely of price action in which effort is reversed at or near the desired entry point.
*For example in a demand zone a bearish outside bar is reversed by a bullish engulfing or a bearish tail/pinbar of size is reversed by a bullish engulfing. The opposite would be true for a supply zone. I'll post some models to illustrate this and some more historical charts to illustrate this later.

Visual evidence of supply/demand on a price chart that draws our attention is what s/d traders look for. I have submitted evidence that WRBs are one way to find areas of important and tradeable supply and demand. This is not the only way and others have demonstrated so. What is important is that you are consistent with how ever you define supply and demand. I think the validity of ones description and definition of s/d will be revealed as that individual applies it to actual trading.

Evidence supporting swaps and their application:
If a swap represents supply/demand then there must be evidence and it should satisfy the "rules". So lets do that.
A WRB gap by itself is evidence of supply and demand for the duration of that candle or bar. A bullish WRB gap is created by a set of buyers that buy throughout the time duration of the bar. In most cases the bar will open near it's low and close near its high.

A swap occurs when s/d area is engaged by price and then violently breaks in the opposite direction. The violent break may be a WRB. As previously stated a WRB is evidence of supply/demand The description and definition is satisfied. Below are two models. The first is that of a WRB. The second is an idealized model of a swap.
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This is a historical example. This happens extremely frequently.
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A swap is a structural example of effort reversed.

Bar level swaps occur as described above. Model examples below
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  • #90
  • Jan 3, 2021 8:50am Jan 3, 2021 8:50am
Price is fractal. This means that the occurrence of price action can be seen at ALL levels. A structural swap is no different than a bar level swap.

Supply and demand is also fractal. It is very powerful. Reading it and understanding it through price action takes a bit of time.

To me it is so powerful that the addition of anything else is unnecessary. In fact the addition of anything else for me complicates matters. Additions become in themselves things that must be defined, described and analyzed. This is why I rant a bit on multi time frame analysis and indicators in general.
  • #91
  • Jan 3, 2021 9:29am Jan 3, 2021 9:29am
A superb illustration. WRB tail effort reversed by 2 bar WRB gap. The 2 bar WRB gap gets reversed by the huge WRB gap (purple arrow) which is the swap from demand to supply. Price returns and voila!

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  • #92
  • Jan 3, 2021 9:36am Jan 3, 2021 9:36am
TREX
This is the difference between a REAL BREAK and STOP HUNT i was talking about
this is some intermediate patterns i know from TREX (Saaed Khakestar)
i Hope this information help you all
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Lets the Engulf speaks
  • #93
  • Jan 3, 2021 9:57am Jan 3, 2021 9:57am
Similar to previous post. This is a 3 minute MYM (micro dow)
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  • #94
  • Jan 3, 2021 12:11pm Jan 3, 2021 12:11pm
Quoting Winston Reed
A superb illustration. WRB tail effort reversed by 2 bar WRB gap. The 2 bar WRB gap gets reversed by the huge WRB gap (purple arrow) which is the swap from demand to supply. Price returns and voila! {image}
Hi Winston. you are doing a great job. keep it up.
Which pairs do you trade regularly?
Le$$ I$ More
  • #95
  • Jan 3, 2021 12:30pm Jan 3, 2021 12:30pm
Here is a WRB Hidden Gap indicator for those that are new to this and interested. Saves time drawing them in.

Set it to around 30 lookback so that you don't have too many boxes cluttering up your chart. Also, you may want to set the color similar to your background color so that it doesn't interfere with your S/D analysis.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 WRB-Hidden-Gap-Improved.mq4   11 KB | 416 downloads
  • #96
  • Jan 3, 2021 12:57pm Jan 3, 2021 12:57pm
Quoting Winston Reed
Evidence supporting swaps and their application: If a swap represents supply/demand then there must be evidence and it should satisfy the "rules". So lets do that. A WRB gap by itself is evidence of supply and demand for the duration of that candle or bar. A bullish WRB gap is created by a set of buyers that buy throughout the time duration of the bar. In most cases the bar will open near it's low and close near its high. A swap occurs when s/d area is engaged by price and then violently breaks in the opposite direction. The violent break may be...
First, let me start out by saying ultimately we are going to agree to disagree. Next, I want to say that it is possible to have a civil discussion on a subject without it leading to name-calling and post-banning. Additionally, I want to say that agreeing with me does not mean everything Winston says has no merit. Or vice versa. Basically, we are all here to learn and grow from each other. There can be disagreements and arguments because sometimes that's where the most growth happens......

Technically a Zone cannot swap or flip.

The base definition of a Demand Zone is an area where there is an imbalance of buy orders. The predominance of unrealized buy orders forms a "floor" for price. As price enters this area, some of these unrealized orders get filled and cause price to rise. The opposite is true for a Supply Zone.

By definition what has to happen for price to trade down and through the Demand Zone is that all the unrealized buy order must be filled. But in order to fill every buy order, you only need an equal amount of sell orders. Therefore, there is no need for a predominance of unrealized sell orders to appear at this level. But that is the very definition of s a Supply Zone. Accordingly, a Demand Zone cannot flip into a Supply Zone by the mere passing through of the Zone. A predominance of sell orders has to accumulate there. And that NEW accumulation of sell orders creates a NEW Supply Zone. Again, the fact that price moves through a Demand Zone does not necessarily mean an accumulation of selling, you only need an equal amount.

I trade Supply/Demand Delta Zones based on WRB Analysis. Some of the logic is a bit different from traditional S/D Analysis.

I have added a photo of your photo with a few things left off the screen. Based on your model, this is what I see happening.

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* A Supply/Demand Delta Zone was created. (note all requirement for a Zone are not shown or discussed as some are proprietary)

* Price does move back into the Demand Zone , but doesn't react very much to this zone.

* We see a dark (O<C) Wide Range Bar (WRB) piercing through the Demand Zone.

* For some, this is enough price action (the filling of the Zone) to close it. However, I like to see a full body (O-C) below the Zone in order to consider it closed.

* The appearance of two dark (O<C) intervals closing lower than the low of the dark WRB HiddenGAP interval confirms that a key change in the Supply/Demand Dynamic in the Market occurred and thus a new Supply Zone was created.

* There was a Demand Zone. It closed. A new Supply Zone was formed at essentially the same place. So we have to distinct Zones, not one that switches, or swaps, polarity.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #97
  • Jan 3, 2021 1:23pm Jan 3, 2021 1:23pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} First, let me start out by saying ultimately we are going to agree to disagree. Next, I want to say that it is possible to have a civil discussion on a subject without it leading to name-calling and post-banning. Additionally, I want to say that agreeing with me does not mean everything Winston says has no merit. Or vice versa. Basically, we are all here to learn and grow from each other. There can be disagreements and arguments because sometimes that's where the most growth happens...... Technically a Zone cannot swap or flip. The base...
Hidden Gap - for clarity - are your supply/demand delta zones based on the wide range body only or the WRB Hidden Gap? I notice the chart above says WRB Hidden Gap, but when I look at your real examples it tends to be the WRB only? Thanks.
  • #98
  • Jan 3, 2021 1:31pm Jan 3, 2021 1:31pm
Quoting pakeha
{quote} Hidden Gap - for clarity - are your supply/demand delta zones based on the wide range body only or the WRB Hidden Gap? I notice the chart above says WRB Hidden Gap, but when I look at your real examples it tends to be the WRB only? Thanks.
Great question.

I define the size of the zone as the entire body (O-C) of the WRB HiddenGAP interval rather than the size of the HiddenGAP itself. Either way works. Just remain consistent with the method you choose.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #99
  • Jan 3, 2021 3:25pm Jan 3, 2021 3:25pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} This is a historical example. {image}
Your historical example looked familiar to me.
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  • #100
  • Jan 3, 2021 5:03pm Jan 3, 2021 5:03pm
Hiddengap is absolutely correct. We can agree to disagree and of course there will be no post-banning here for vigorous debate. Having said that let me vigorously continue the debate. LOL.

The phenomenon I describe as a "swap" is one that occurs with regularity, precision and reliability:

*Regularity - on any given day I can likely find at least a couple of examples across the forex pairs I follow. It also occurs regularly in the futures market where I trade the micros (micro dow, nasdaq, gold and S&P).
*Precision - by this I mean that the "pattern" is easily recognizable and the areas where price "swaps" is often to the pip right where the base of previous s/d is most readily identifiable.
*Reliable - the area reliably can be traded in the direction of the "swap".

Perhaps they are random or that a bullish WRB Gap Bar (demand) that a relatively short time later is taken out by a bearish WRB Gap Bar (supply and thus swap) have nothing to do with the other and that perhaps they are completely isolated incidents. Except that with too often frequency price returns to the area of the swap and performs as expected (price descent at or near the swap).

For now I must continue not only to point out these occurrences but encourage others to do the same as their performance is really undeniable. To not do so IMHO denies others the opportunity they provide.

Anyway if semantics are really at issue here then perhaps the issue is not so important. Swaps are an important part of my trading and will remain so. They represent what I continue to press as the concept of "effort reversed". Swaps occur at bar/candle level and structural level and IMHO provide opportunity. I've posted many examples and rather than post a bunch more cherry picked historical occurrences I will resolve just to highlight them going forward.

Post 89 and 90 have a couple of very good examples.
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