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The Fibonacci channel projections (FCP)

  • #1,701
  • Dec 30, 2020 9:26am Dec 30, 2020 9:26am
Quoting reo4ua
{quote} entry.... {image}
20 point move in my favor then stopped out before tp1 was hit. Please advise if probabilities got me or if it was a bad entry.

Note for some reason on my MT4, channels/trendlines adjust themselves as price moves so please refer to the original post for channel critique.

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Blessed is the one who takes refuge in Him.
  • #1,702
  • Dec 30, 2020 9:30am Dec 30, 2020 9:30am
Quoting reo4ua
{quote} Thanks for the feedback. So that I'm clear, you're stating that point three should have been at the arrow in the image? If so, is this because this is considered a strong push up? {image}
this is from post #1.
"On the example of uptrend.
Find the last Highest Low (or bottom preceding the last maximum peak). Draw a beam from this point to the left. The first bottom that touches line the will be the second point. You got our trend line. Build the channel so that one of the sides coincides with the TL. Usually we get point 3 by placing a max (min) swing on the midline of the channel, but the best place for the point 3 would be a straight continuous movement as far as possible from point 1 or point 2. Measure the vertical width of the channel and build a FIBO grid equal to this width. When the price leaves the channel, place the FIBO grid so that the line 1.000 passes through the breakdown point of the TL. Lines 0.382 and 0.000 will correspond to our TP. Look for an entry after closing the signal candle at 1.000. SL is usually a few points above the level of 1.000 or extension 1.272."

choose point 3 that has as straight continuous movement whether it is from point 1 or point 2.
so point 3 was at top of the pin bar.
in this example, i do not consider it a strong move up as it could not close above the previous high.
sometimes it could be a strong move over the previous high which may resulted as an exhausted move to take out retail stops.
or it could result in trend continuation.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,703
  • Dec 30, 2020 9:37am Dec 30, 2020 9:37am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} this is from post #1. "On the example of uptrend. Find the last Highest Low (or bottom preceding the last maximum peak). Draw a beam from this point to the left. The first bottom that touches line the will be the second point. You got our trend line. Build the channel so that one of the sides coincides with the TL. Usually we get point 3 by placing a max (min) swing on the midline of the channel, but the best place for the point 3 would be a straight continuous movement as far as possible from point 1 or point 2. Measure the vertical width...

I see.....so the channel in this pic is accurate?

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post13336458
Blessed is the one who takes refuge in Him.
  • #1,704
  • Dec 30, 2020 9:37am Dec 30, 2020 9:37am
Quoting reo4ua
~90 minutes before NY open. Please critique. {image}{image}
your FCP 3 points were misplaced.
you need to reread post #1 and all the links in order to establish a proper foundation of drawing the channel.
different ways of drawing channel can result in different levels of TPs.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,705
  • Dec 30, 2020 9:38am Dec 30, 2020 9:38am
Quoting reo4ua
{quote} I see.....so the channel in this pic is accurate? https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post13336458
not the proper one.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,706
  • Dec 30, 2020 9:39am Dec 30, 2020 9:39am
Quoting reo4ua
{quote} 20 point move in my favor then stopped out before tp1 was hit. Please advise if probabilities got me or if it was a bad entry. Note for some reason on my MT4, channels/trendlines adjust themselves as price moves so please refer to the original post for channel critique. {image}
Hi mate ! I am bit of confused . Which pair on the picture ? I can not find .
  • #1,707
  • Dec 30, 2020 9:41am Dec 30, 2020 9:41am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} your FCP 3 points were misplaced. you need to reread post #1 and all the links in order to establish a proper foundation of drawing the channel. different ways of drawing channel can result in different levels of TPs.
I appreciate your time and feedback..
Blessed is the one who takes refuge in Him.
  • #1,708
  • Dec 30, 2020 9:52am Dec 30, 2020 9:52am
Quoting Temo1269
{quote} Hi mate ! I am bit of confused . Which pair on the picture ? I can not find .
dow
Blessed is the one who takes refuge in Him.
  • #1,709
  • Dec 30, 2020 10:03am Dec 30, 2020 10:03am
Quoting reo4ua
{quote} 20 point move in my favor then stopped out before tp1 was hit. Please advise if probabilities got me or if it was a bad entry. Note for some reason on my MT4, channels/trendlines adjust themselves as price moves so please refer to the original post for channel critique. {image}
counter trend trading per d1 chart, would be wiser to take tp1 as profit.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,710
  • Dec 30, 2020 7:34pm Dec 30, 2020 7:34pm
Quoting reo4ua
{quote} dow
Hello and welcome!

I am also in the process of learning (nearly 1 month) and thankful to Inthebox and Seysin32 for continuous teaching and mentoring when they can.
Looking back on your posts, the best way, at least for me is through trial and error and chart time - however of course understanding the fundementals of the strategy which can be found on the first few pages of this thread with further examples throughout. For me, a recent help was on page 83 - specifically Inthebox comments!

Goodluck and a happy new year
  • #1,711
  • Dec 30, 2020 7:51pm Dec 30, 2020 7:51pm
just lines.
w1 usd index
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,712
  • Dec 30, 2020 8:04pm Dec 30, 2020 8:04pm
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,713
  • Dec 31, 2020 12:02pm Dec 31, 2020 12:02pm
As we come to the end of year, this is my demo account results for FCP. I started on 16th of December 2020 with possibly skewed results in the first week trying to grasp the idea and continuously learning. This is not a full month and was only 9 trading days.

However, the idea remains that I will forward test this continuously after the New Years for a least a couple of months and see if I can improve.
Today I had a bad trading day for whatever reason losing 5 trades (5%) and winning one (0.84%, took 2/3 off to let position run but 1/3 got stopped out) - Possibly due to 'revenge' trading perhaps but goals will be set: for example max 2% loss per day etc..I would also like to improve win rate + RR. I usually don't like to monitor the trade and usually set a take-profit. However, I guess I will see when I have done 100+ trades.

Was at one point as high as 10%+ and gave it back but still in the positive at 4.7% on the account.

Lets see for next year and see if I can get the consistency Any suggestions, comparables, or words of wisdom would be great
Green pips
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  • #1,714
  • Dec 31, 2020 5:25pm Dec 31, 2020 5:25pm
Quoting Forexnub
{quote} Hello and welcome! I am also in the process of learning (nearly 1 month) and thankful to Inthebox and Seysin32 for continuous teaching and mentoring when they can. Looking back on your posts, the best way, at least for me is through trial and error and chart time - however of course understanding the fundementals of the strategy which can be found on the first few pages of this thread with further examples throughout. For me, a recent help was on page 83 - specifically Inthebox comments! Goodluck and a happy new year

Using the midline for point 3 or the outer trend line is what's hanging me up. Sometimes it's one, sometimes it's the other. While not having the best grasp of this part yet, I still came out with positive points after my first two days trading this method. I think I took 7 total trades. Will keep plugging away.

As for the reference to page 83 - there is no page 83. Please advise.

Thanks for your feedback!
Blessed is the one who takes refuge in Him.
  • #1,715
  • Dec 31, 2020 6:04pm Dec 31, 2020 6:04pm
Quoting reo4ua
{quote} Using the midline for point 3 or the outer trend line is what's hanging me up. Sometimes it's one, sometimes it's the other. While not having the best grasp of this part yet, I still came out with positive points after my first two days trading this method. I think I took 7 total trades. Will keep plugging away. As for the reference to page 83 - there is no page 83. Please advise. Thanks for your feedback!

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post12884346
Blessed is the one who takes refuge in Him.
  • #1,716
  • Dec 31, 2020 7:52pm Dec 31, 2020 7:52pm
Quoting reo4ua
{quote} Using the midline for point 3 or the outer trend line is what's hanging me up. Sometimes it's one, sometimes it's the other. While not having the best grasp of this part yet, I still came out with positive points after my first two days trading this method. I think I took 7 total trades. Will keep plugging away. As for the reference to page 83 - there is no page 83. Please advise. Thanks for your feedback!
I was referring to this post as a guide to look for before approaching a trading day:https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post13316827

Best of luck
  • #1,717
  • Dec 31, 2020 8:35pm Dec 31, 2020 8:35pm
Quoting Forexnub
Was at one point as high as 10%+ and gave it back but still in the positive at 4.7% on the account. Lets see for next year and see if I can get the consistency Any suggestions, comparables, or words of wisdom would be great Green pips {image}
say after getting a certain amount or % during the course of the week, 2 options, the latter may not suit everyone.
1. continue to be consistent in incremental return.
2. risking the profit made so far to make larger ones by increasing unit size.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post13335550
finding reasons to put on a trade. the more the merrier (reminder to myself too).

1. trend
2. support/resistance
3. round number
4. trend line
5. fibonacci
6. divergence
7. momentum
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,718
  • Jan 1, 2021 9:46am Jan 1, 2021 9:46am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} mainly was your placement of point 3. FCP is used to give us as best an entry as possible with the TP. it's only one part of the story. the more important part is why we sold there? it looked like the trend was strong and sold on counter trend. why didn't we sell at a lower level, we could draw a channel there too? we could, depending how FCP was drawn. however the TP would be lesser, probably not hitting TP2. reasons: 1. round number 30400. 2. slowing of upward momentum. compare the 2 green arrows. shorter and not as steep. 3. double top....
Looking back on this, nice explanation!
I don’t feel fully comfortable with taking counter trend trades at this time until I fully familiarise myself with the strategy and trending following.

If I understand well, You are suggesting that the less steep the angle of the channel, the higher chance of price reaching take profits?
  • #1,719
  • Jan 1, 2021 11:25am Jan 1, 2021 11:25am
Quoting Forexnub
{quote} Looking back on this, nice explanation! I don’t feel fully comfortable with taking counter trend trades at this time until I fully familiarise myself with the strategy and trending following. If I understand well, You are suggesting that the less steep the angle of the channel, the higher chance of price reaching take profits?
the thing is always look for trend pullback.
this way one is not in a hurry to trade and have enough time to think.
fear of missing out can often make us regret later.

the question to ask is pullback to what level?
nobody knows. will depend on individual's experience.
but we can look for:
support/resistance, round number, trend line, fibonacci, etc .....
so choose a level to wait and see how price is reacting around the chosen level.

in the example,
if one had chosen the round number in confluence with resistance and fib 61.8 as the level to wait, then it had the best reward with the pin bar as signal.
if we missed that level, there are other levels to wait at.

what's the clues or footprints left behind by price?
compare the yellow arrows. the first compared with the rests. the length, the angle ....
compare the length of green line heights from fractal high to fractal high.
see the lower high lower low forming.
not fool proof, but frequently we failed to observe all these tell tale signs (me included).
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #1,720
  • Jan 1, 2021 11:55am Jan 1, 2021 11:55am
just in case that someone says that i am deviating from this thread.
i want to state that these are nitty gritty details i am sharing for additional knowledge's sake that rarely anyone will mention.
one can trade FCP with or without them.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
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