sticking to trend following!

this year has been crazy AF. I changed plan 10 times... as a result I made many mistakes. it has been the most profitable year of my life lol

anyways , I lost motivation... I was about to quit trading and buy an index like the MSCI World Momentum. no way... I can do better, I said to myself... I just have to work harder.

so I did and I came up with a strategy that makes perfect sense to me. it is based on moving averages... I trade only stocks long term btw...

can I beat BlackRock and Deutsche Bank with my own trend following strategy?



here's the performance over a 5 years period of "iShares Edge MSCI World Momentum Factor UCITS ETF"

the xtrackers performance:



I truly think I can beat them...

I know.. nobody reads my journal, that's fine...

As my avatar may suggest, I like beer.

Alcohol makes things interesting, well for me at least and that's the important... the rest is philosophical speculation.

I would really love to just talk about my plan, because I have a nice plan...

Since I trade long term, my targets are high. therefore it makes sense to buy at a low price... right ?

ofc, I need to time my entries/exits. no need to anticipate anything... just follow... easy...

I use a little bit of FA btw... not just TA... only to avoid betting on weak economies. it gives me more confidence.

interesting , you only trade stocks with this method? I would like to know more. How can i use this to be profitable as well?

I'm not going to share my strategy in detail... that would be very long and not fun.

my advice is to find a way to be profitable by yourself. I'm really here to share some "random" thoughts from time to time...

Today is "Beer Day"... so, here I am...

I'm currently waiting for a reversal signal on these stocks:
Nokia and Deutsche Telekom.


I don't set profit targets actually... I simply close when I get the opposite signal, BUT, only if I'm in profit.

Hello Beer. I believe in you!You will succeed. The main thing is work and motivation and love for trading. Good luck to you

momentum investing is a good system.

the past performance of a stock (for instance) predicts its future performance.

however, short term involves "market fitting"... optimization... "perfect timing".... I've had enough of that.

by the way.. by "long term", I mean holding a position for at least 1 year.

it is GAMBLING as it's almost impossible to predict where price will be in 5-10 years.

people like warren buffett buy good companies at a low price ok but the main reason why the perform so well is MARTINGALE.

you don't fool me.

At this point I don't care about momentum and trends anymore. lol,sorry . I simplified this s**ty little game a lot.

just buy few random German or Chinese blue chip stocks (US stocks look a bit overpriced to me) at a low price and sell them at a high price. Buy low, sell high... the best way to make money I know.

by the way... I don't think it's a bad idea to average down... IF YOU ARE WARREN BUFFETT. of course, he's right 99% of the time.

so since I am not warren buffett, I will not complicate my life with martingale variants and stuff like that.

so...... what I'm doing is what I consider "the ultimate sophistication". no predictions, no anticipations, no BS.

time and targets are my only allies.

my first target is 100%. higher targets only if it's risk free (profit money)...

and these are my final thoughts... thanks for your interest.

sorry for the nonsense... but I like to be real at the cost of looking crazy. nobody gives a f..k afterall.

I had a lot of time to test and refine my strategy these days.

I will use indicators only,I realized once and for all that I cannot anticipate anything.

basically I look for new trends on cheap blue chip stocks... 10 years avg, there's nothing " accurate" ofc

I'm still not sure what to do, how much to risk/diversify.... I'll just take more time to think ... thinking works

in the end I decided to buy an amazing index which is diversified and equally weighted.. this means that I chose to go passive so ... goodbye trading forums