Gejordan Weekly Journal

No Bias, Follow the move
Up Move

Not much change. Picture in last post still holds. Holiday week. Holding my longs testing the thought of keeping first changes in direction beyond initial target.

Also going to use this space to recap/summarize some things I have noticed in the exercise up to this point:

1. Bias week - Opens below s50 and pivot on Up Bias week (or reverse in Down Bias) in a range a problem. Wait to bottom of range or close back above s50 and pivot and enter on retrace.
2. Switch from Bias to No Bias - Use caution, watch for failed new highs (lows) as price may reverse.
3. No Bias weeks - Be less aggressive, possibly look to bigger chart and see where you are.

Not much changed, the range expanded a bit the other day. Up Move, No Bias.

Price travelling from 1905 to 1815. Note the big drop and recovery. I have 3 open positions still from last picture and because I am in exercise mode, the move has had no impact on my emotions. It's a lesson in position sizing. I should never be invested to a point that I get emotional about outcomes.

Because I am testing profit targets, I am holding the same things, but this range has been great for good entries near bottom and profits near top. Am I leaving money on the table versus this waiting? Would the end result be the same? Is a No Bias a good time to test this or would it be better only to do this on a switch from No Bias to Directional?

Also, check out Rearden's observation, price poked the lower swing... so if price can't continue up, good idea where it's going and it won't be good for my trades.

Price has made a couple of pushes higher since opening the positions, so I will close them now. Unfortunately, the pushes didn't move price significantly higher, but I was looking for a couple of pushes and I have no control if they will actually go anywhere. Good trades, but this trial didn't produce anything more than had I just opened and closed per the original rules. I'll keep doing it and see if there is benefit over the long haul.



Holiday tomorrow, followed by Friday, so back at it on Monday.

Bias: Up
Move: Up

Switch from No Bias to Up Bias. A couple of weeks ago we did this and failed to progress higher. Will this be the same or different? Price is closer to the previous high and remembering the weekly picture I put on the Rearden Journal, price has been supported on this attempt so I would guess we will go higher, but I'll have to wait and see on price progression. This also represents an attempt to swing higher on the weekly so it should be interesting either way.

If price does fail, the new swing on the hourly will be higher so price may move quickly into a down move.

Bias: Up
Move: UP
Good week, so closing trade and no new trades on Friday.

We started the week in an up move, quickly went to a down move, and then we got what Rearden has seen me do and is testing... which is to attempt an early entry before an official change in move. This happens in an up bias week when price moves against the bias and then gets above and stays above the s50 and returns to it. This is a chance to catch a potential switch in move prior to a swing being broken and making it official.

This one worked out well. About 175 pips or so. Had this discussion with Rearden and a good reminder here... know why a trade is taken. Don't get caught up in the adrenaline rush of just being in any trade, understand what to expect from the trade entered. This trade isn't about just getting to trade, it's to take a stab at a trade that can provide an outsized return. There is no reason to try and take a profit at the typical place with this trade. This trade is all about catching the start of a move in the direction of bias. There is no better time for maximum gain. I am back in the beginning of learning mode so I will go ahead and close because the point of the trade has been locked in my head in this instance.

A bit behind in posting, but not much to say. Bias is UP, Move is down. Move started the week up, but quickly switched lower.

As I mentioned in 1321, if price opens below the pivot and simple50 on UP bias week, I want to wait until bottom of range or recapture of the simple50 and pivot to get involved. I was asleep when price switched to a down move, so no trades from the bottom of the old range, when I woke up, in a down move, so now I wait.

Possibilities here would be doing a long like last week if it develops. If there is big movement while I sleep, I might miss that type of trade, but would simply take the next available trade.

Move: Down
Bias: UP

A great trade for the exercise. I discussed it over on Rearden's journal as well. Last week I had this trade and it resulted in a big profit. This time, no good. I gave Rearden the question... what is different between the two? I also discussed how the initial loss is large, so is there any way to reduce the loss when you take a chance like this?

To me, I think you could use the same sign to exit that you did to enter. I waited for price to get above and stay above the simple50 to get in, would it have helped to exit if it got back below and stayed below. Absolutely. To the tune of 45 pips saved. Or, I could have skipped the trade based on the differences between the last setup and this and just take the trade from the bottom... 36 pips saved. The purpose of the exercise isn't to just come away with profitable trades, but to come away with the skill of making unprofitable trades, less unprofitable.

The chart is trying to set this trade again as I write. We'll see. If so, I'll do it again and see if I can get more data points to support my longer term decision making on this type of trade.

Bias: UP
Move: Down

Still in a down move within a range. But the bias remained UP from last week to this week. I am in two trades right now, the early reversal attempt and I also entered a pullback to the pivot on Friday. Wasn't thinking about it being Friday so don't need to be in that trade, but I'll leave it on since this is learning mode.

Been talking about these early entries. One worked a couple of weeks ago, one didn't work last week. We'll see if this one works. At first glance it would appear a bit more encouraging, but still in a range. Have to wait and see. Also, I am holding these reversals to see if I can catch larger moves from the start.

Price continues in the range. Still in a down move in an Up Bias. I am still long on an early reversal entry from Dec. 10th (the bottom entry from above). I closed the upper entry above, as I wasn't supposed to be in it... lack of attention to detail on my part. These highs have been in place for about 10 days now. Any exit at these highs would have given me 50+ pips, so this is another good part of the exercise I am doing. I am getting the opportunity to sit stress free in a trade and learn about the characteristics that might lead to a 50 pip profit, a 50+ pip loss, or a 175+ pip profit.

How many times do we ever take the time to really do that? Ever? Take the time to feel what it is like to sit through chop without freaking out?

We switched to an up move in an up bias. I closed out the early entry for about 150 pips. It may continue, but tomorrow is Friday and this is me showing how to do the exercise, so a good place to close.

I'll discuss a few things.


First, I've had two big trades in December. In the middle of those trades is some chop and a losing trade. I discussed how that losing trade could have been reduced significantly as I tried to search for entry back into a possible continuation.

Next, to me, the best part of this exercise is the understanding of patience and elimination of fear of missing. The elimination of destroying the account in the area in between the two up moves. Not fearing the drops of the 14th, 15th and 16th.

Early in the exercise, I experienced a range. A rather large range. I discussed how the process of taking every trade helps me figure out how not to take every trade and to take better trades with lower risk. Not all trades will be successful, but by reducing the losses through better management or avoidance, I maximize account growth when I catch the larger moves.

I've now seen basically all parts of a normal market during the exercise. Ranges and Moves. The key to the exercise is to continue experiencing the cycle of these moves and trying to learn from each instance. Drilling it in through repetition.

All that is required has been: Bias, Swings to determine move, a simple 50, a pivot, and staying connected to how I am feeling while doing the exercise. Nothing else. Nothing else.

Bias Up, Move Down. Wait for cross and hold of s50 and try to apply what I learned last week to filter/improve the trade decision.

Up Bias, Up move

Price went back into an up move. It did cross the s50 and stay above, but in doing so, it also went into an up move at the same time. So, I didn't take the s50 early trade that I took the last couple of weeks, because the simple50 is moving down prior to the setup. This is something I noticed so far, not enough data for a definitive rule, but I'll try it out and see what happens.

Second, I also didn't take it, because I can now take a regular trade from the basic rules. So, I have placed an entry at the s50 and the pivot. I can see that the s50 is moving down, so I might be in store for a failed trade or some pullback and chop, but I'll let it play out and see what happens.

This setup is similar to old ones in that price is above the simple50 and pivot, which has been good for up moves in an up bias. BUT, its new in that I don't believe I have seen in this version of the exercise so far, a setup where the switch to an up move happened like this with a simple50 travelling down.

So here is the result from the above setup... Basic exercise entries, wake up, basic exit when it goes back to where it came from. Not aggressive with this playing with my theory that upside might be limited for the moment due to down moving s50.

Up Move, Up Bias.

Turns out the exit was at a nice place. Price has now dropped below the pivot and s50. This is a pretty good place to enter just based on being close to the bottom of the range, but I learned in the early weeks that I'd rather wait until price re-captures the s50 and pivot before entering a trade when I have an up move and an up bias in a range. I don't have a ton of data to state this as a hard and fast rule, but it would have served me well last time, so I'll see if it serves me well this time.

So, I will implement this here. I'll wait and see if we can stay in an up move and end the day back above the the pivot and s50 before trying to enter. So, a day off tomorrow as I wait and will check it at the end of day.

I'm gonna shut it down for xmas. I'll keep watching what happens around price re-taking or not the s50 and return Sunday evening.

Bias: Up
Move: Up

Nothing for me to do yet. I am waiting for price to have a daily close above the s50 and/or pivot. I am taking what I noticed in the beginning months of the exercise and putting it to work to see if it has legs.

What I have noticed so far is listed below. This condition would fit within #1. Up Bias, Up move, in a range.

 

1. Bias week - Opens below s50 and pivot on Up Bias week (or reverse in Down Bias) in a range a problem. Wait to bottom of range or close back above s50 and pivot and enter on retrace.
2. Switch from Bias to No Bias - Use caution, watch for failed new highs (lows) as price may reverse.
3. No Bias weeks - Be less aggressive, possibly look to bigger chart and see where you are.
4. Bias week, Opposite Move - If bias up and move is down, take a trade on a close above and stay above the s50 (opposite for down bias, up move) IF the s50 is moving in the direction you want to go. See Rearden put this in action here. See the s50 working against me here. Notice the down moving s50 the day before my entry. Versus the up moving s50 the day before Rearden's entry.

Price re-captured the moving average, which gave the go ahead to engage again. I entered straight away (got to the screen late, so missed a few pips on entry). Also placed a larger retrace entry as well. That entry worked a few months ago, not today. Placed TP at top, a bit above the last high.



Price remains in an up move, up bias. Challenging the swing. Will wait to end of day and see where price is. I am also thinking about the hit of the s50 from yesterday mid-day. The s50 had turned up behind the trade, so was I too restrictive with my re-capture constraint before I started trading again? Will watch for this in the future. Not ready to trade it.

Happy New Year

Here is a picture of Thursday.

I put in my orders at the 50 and pivot and checked before bed to see if they hit. Amazingly, price danced around my order, but didn't bring me in. And at the time I was watching, the candle above the yellow arrow was up so it appeared it was going on back up without me. So I pulled my orders and went to sleep.

NOW, why? Well, maybe I should have kept them there, but I saw the initial push fail to poke through, and at the time I was watching it appeared price was on its way again, and it was Thursday with no trading the next day (so essentially Friday). I have watched this before, failures to poke through in alignment with other variables equals added risk. Looks like I am learning.

So, what if I had left them open? My best guess tells me I would have and should have done the following... using what I've experienced so far. I would have awakened to an entry at the pivot and my s50 entry would have been just hit at the bottom. Seeing this, I should have noticed that price failed at the top and just closed and stayed below the s50. I would like to think I would have exited at BE or with a small gain back at the pivot. Certainly I should have noticed the failure to retake the pivot and collapse back below the s50 and taken a smaller loss from the pivot. There was little reason at this point to take a loss below the swing.

It would be perfectly normal to take the loss below the swing if I were just starting the exercise or if I was still in stage 1 and taking all the trades to completion in an effort to gather some data.

How this was handled simply depends on where you are in the exercise. I am 4.5 months into it with Rearden (and having already done this a couple of times on my own). If unhappy with how you handled... good... it will imprint into your brain if you are doing the exercise because you just experienced it.

I finished the last 4+ months of exercise up 200+ pips. This doesn't matter at all, but I mention it to illustrate the point that if you are trading unprofitably, why continue losing money... stop, do the exercise, learn to trade, and actually don't lose a bunch of money. Rearden, I'll let you handle the question...has the last 4 months saved you money, returned way more in education than you lost in the exercise, teaching you about the chart, and moving you toward profitability?

Price will start 2021, my 111th year on FF, in an UP BIAS, DOWN MOVE... I know how to handle that.

Finally have a moment to update.

UP BIAS, DOWN move. Re-capture the s50 trade is in focus. Price opened the year doing just that. I entered on the pullback, but we got some interesting action compared to previous situations. This time, the simple50 was heading down but on the move above, it clearly turned up. BUT, as price came back down, the simple50 turned down again. This, to me, brought the thought of A RANGE into my mind.

I entered on the return to the 50 since the last move had been up, but I also put an entry down at the bottom in case this wobbling of the moving average was hinting to a range. Both ultimately ended in profit. I closed these instead of holding for a breakout to see if I can get another shot at this on a better s50 setup.

I am possibly getting the start of this setup now. The s50 has turned up, price is above and stayed above, so I will watch for a return to the 50 without the 50 turning down on me again. I placed the pending for reference.

Price did exactly what I thought and mentioned above, but missed hitting my entry by about a pip, so the breakout went on without me. Wait for the next one.