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The Swamp

  • #79,121
  • Dec 2, 2020 3:49am Dec 2, 2020 3:49am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} aud 73.76/74.14 is major r {quote} {image}
From September 1 possible.. anything is depends on point of view.
  • #79,122
  • Dec 2, 2020 4:01am Dec 2, 2020 4:01am
Quoting q_import
{quote} From September 1 possible.. anything is depends on point of view.
We are not that important.. our view means little. aud is fighting the top bb on the month at 7376..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #79,123
  • Dec 2, 2020 4:09am Dec 2, 2020 4:09am
Quoting q_import
{quote} China is pressing AU to devalue.. They will not accept shipments.. I think it was 2 days ago.. its going to drop https://www.marinetraffic.com/ // if will not accept headless browser traffic - selenium and crawlera will do or any other python implementation Under locations ports of Australia To ports of china Type Tanker There is a time lapse option.. Normal discharge of products and abnormal will be your data collection of vessel numbers..

Thanks Q, interesting link. I'll have to have a look at it later. Tensions have definitely escalated between China and Aus. I think only one out of over 70 coal ships were allowed to dock at Chinese ports in November. Mongolia have been ratcheting up the pace on a rail to transport coal to Southern China. Currently only transported by truck, so only limited availability for China. But twice as much coal imported from Mongolia this year as last year. They are squeezing Australia to punish for what they seem to view as impertinence and various transgressions. A couple of months ago Glencore, largest coal producer in Oz, had 2 week shutdowns at most or all of their coal mines to reduce stockpiles. Looks like more of the same on the cards. Coal second biggest export $ for Oz. China have also just imposed Very heavy tariffs on Australian wine. Both sides have taken positions which are hard to reverse from, Australia obviously the more vulnerable.
  • #79,124
  • Dec 2, 2020 4:11am Dec 2, 2020 4:11am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Thanks Q, interesting link. I'll have to have a look at it later. Tensions have definitely escalated between China and Aus. I think only one out of over 70 coal ships were allowed to dock at Chinese ports in November. Mongolia have been ratcheting up the pace on a rail to transport coal to Southern China. Currently only transported by truck, so only limited availability for China. But twice as much coal imported from Mongolia this year as last year. They are squeezing Australia to punish for what they seem to view as impertinence and various...
fundis and chart could catch up.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #79,125
  • Dec 2, 2020 4:16am Dec 2, 2020 4:16am
aud 6h support held 7366.. next 6h close 30 min before lc.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #79,126
  • Dec 2, 2020 4:23am Dec 2, 2020 4:23am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} fundis and chart could catch up.
Yes, I've been thinking some of it factoring in already. AU seems to be lagging other USD pairs. AN is a good indicator example, still running down hill strongly. NJ has broken above 5 year down trend, AJ virtually bumping the line , but not crossing.
  • #79,127
  • Dec 2, 2020 4:32am Dec 2, 2020 4:32am
gbp 1h could be a inverted hammer off 3337 12 support..careful if it breaks 3378 R.. some R maybe at 3390 and 3395

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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #79,128
  • Dec 2, 2020 4:35am Dec 2, 2020 4:35am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Yes, I've been thinking some of it factoring in already. AU seems to be lagging other USD pairs. AN is a good indicator example, still running down hill strongly. NJ has broken above 5 year down trend, AJ virtually bumping the line , but not crossing.
one food (kiwi) commodity the other earth commodity, Who is taken Australia's place? That currency may/should be up..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #79,129
  • Dec 2, 2020 4:46am Dec 2, 2020 4:46am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} one food (kiwi) commodity the other earth commodity, Who is taken Australia's place? That currency may/should be up..
one food (kiwi) commodity the other earth commodity-very true, apples and oranges, I'm just very used to tracking both and keeping an eye on the balance between the 2, and it's strongly in favor of the Kiwi now.

I haven't researched it yet, but I've seen newspaper articles which said that the U.S. is sending more coal to China, and even getting a premium over past prices. Obviously transportation is more expensive, an advantage Australia has always had, including lower cost than South America to transport iron ore. I read brief reference to a statement of some sort by trump, saying that he is looking at the idea of an allegiance (about fffing time!!) of some sort to deal with the growing influence of China. The article said that he referenced the China-Australia tension as an example of the increased urgency to deal with the situation. It's a bit disappointing that the U.S. would step in to take advantage of the gap created by China not taking Australia's coal, but obviously market forces are in play, and every company needs to make a buck.
  • #79,130
  • Dec 2, 2020 4:49am Dec 2, 2020 4:49am
Looks like not much resistance on DXY until about 91.57.
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  • #79,131
  • Dec 2, 2020 5:08am Dec 2, 2020 5:08am
Quoting Blackopal
Looks like not much resistance on DXY until about 91.57. {image}
i got some R at 91.46/.48 too
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #79,132
  • Dec 2, 2020 5:09am Dec 2, 2020 5:09am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} one food (kiwi) commodity the other earth commodity-very true, apples and oranges, I'm just very used to tracking both and keeping an eye on the balance between the 2, and it's strongly in favor of the Kiwi now. I haven't researched it yet, but I've seen newspaper articles which said that the U.S. is sending more coal to China, and even getting a premium over past prices. Obviously transportation is more expensive, an advantage Australia has always had, including lower cost than South America to transport iron ore. I read brief reference...
not enough coal to help the usd. the economy is too big for coal
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #79,133
  • Edited 5:51am Dec 2, 2020 5:32am | Edited 5:51am
Took some EU profit 1.2045. Looks likely to drop more, just locked in some profits, holding a safer hand now.
  • #79,134
  • Dec 2, 2020 5:50am Dec 2, 2020 5:50am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} not enough coal to help the usd. the economy is too big for coal
A bit of a wake up call for Australia. Japan is also a big buyer of Aussi coal, they plan to decommission a lot of coal fired power stations. China will obviously be buying less from Australia in the immediate future. The writing is on the wall.
  • #79,135
  • Dec 2, 2020 6:32am Dec 2, 2020 6:32am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} A bit of a wake up call for Australia. Japan is also a big buyer of Aussi coal, they plan to decommission a lot of coal fired power stations. China will obviously be buying less from Australia in the immediate future. The writing is on the wall.
do you have metallurgical coal? They should be safe? We used to get a little bauxite from you in my youngin days. Most for Jamaica
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #79,136
  • Dec 2, 2020 6:49am Dec 2, 2020 6:49am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} do you have metallurgical coal? They should be safe? We used to get a little bauxite from you in my youngin days. Most for Jamaica
Yes, top quality metallurgical is also sitting in ships in Chinese waters waiting to be unloaded. The Chinese say there are "quality issues" with it delaying unloading and distribution. I think they have been bullshitting about the reasons because they are violating contractual clauses. But they still want Australia's top quality iron ore, probably because it's not as easily substituted as the coal

Iron Ore
$130.81 (US/t)
At the Close: 01 December 2020


Iron Ore (62% CFR China)PriceChange
October 2020$121.44-3.71%
September 2020$126.08+4.74%
August 2020$120.37+13.80%
July 2020$105.80+3.40%
June 2020$102.36+15.74%
May 2020$88.44+6.04%
April 2020$83.40-6.36%
March 2020$89.07+6.12%
  • #79,137
  • Dec 2, 2020 6:55am Dec 2, 2020 6:55am
A lot of US data about to hit the screens. Posted with my Australian time now 11:55 P.M.

12:15amUSD
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
433K365K12:30amCAD
Labor Productivity q/q
-6.9%9.8%1:00amUSD
FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
2:00amUSD
Fed Chair Powell Testifies
2:30amUSD
Crude Oil Inventories
-1.7M-0.8M5:00amUSD
FOMC Member Williams Speaks
6:00amUSD
Beige Book
  • #79,138
  • Dec 2, 2020 7:17am Dec 2, 2020 7:17am
12:15amUSD
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
307K actual, forecast=433K , previous 365K
  • #79,139
  • Dec 2, 2020 7:23am Dec 2, 2020 7:23am
Partial reload S 1.2066
  • #79,140
  • Dec 2, 2020 7:33am Dec 2, 2020 7:33am
Quoting Blackopal
Partial reload S 1.2066
where are your stops?
if i may ask.
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