Well I need to just stick to my basic plan of - overnight consolidation and breakout, TP at pivot, which would have netted me 20 pips. Today was a bit like seeing an 100 pound note in front of me but abandoning it to run across a motorway in case there's money on the other side.
Fast and furious today, reverse short at 1.9992, TP already at 76ish. Confluence of retest of TL on 4h and a TL bottom on USDX. Wait to see at bottom of the channel what happens
Short again 1.9992, SL to BE again, this is absolutely the last trade and was pretty dangerous/speculative expecting a repeat drop. Will let it run hoping for a daily high
EDIT, out BE, after all that a measly 5 pips today... still beats a loss. Could have been so much simpler!
Short EUR/USD 12068, SL 10 pips Edit, closed -8 Long GU 13426 SL 16 pips Edit, Out BE Short EU 12064 SL 10 pips
Ignored
Took it out for around 12 pips, reentered short on a move up, stopped at BE, in again short on the break of a wedge targeting daily pivot
Story of my week is having trades go 10 or more pips in my favour then out at BE. I may adjust my strategy a bit to grab these scalps and come up with a better thesis for holding positions longer. Whilst my trades are informed by whats going on in higher TFs it is riddled with confirmation bias
Alright another not so great day, gonna call it good with +14ish pips getting into overtrading territory. Took 30 pips on the break of a bear pennant on GBPUSD and just a handful of pips on the last euro trade. Decided to go long just before this short just to scalp a few pips on the bottom TL- just poor focus/patience, as this was an obvious bearish pennant and below a 4h trend line. Also lost some pips on the break of this longer term TL earlier, was just a poor trade overall.
As long as i'm in the green and learning as I go along I'm not really fussed. Keep the consistency and I know I'll be able to eventually turn a profit. I have to remind myself I haven't opened a chart in almost 10 years since I started this journal
I do need to work on- take profit points, higher TF analysis, DXY correlation, SL placement on GBP/USD. I never really traded GBP but I like it, potential for big movements but particular set ups work alot better. Those triangle breakouts are a gimme for 20+ pips and almost no risk.
Triangle head fake, my judgement was if it's broken out of the 1hr ascending channel to the upside then we have strong bullish momentum but you never know. I ended up going short when it retested the bottom and failed to break the top, reasoning that I could get stops to BE if it tested the top of the longer TF channel. However it didn't play out, broke out to the upside so took 5 pips loss and went in long. We'll see how it pans out. In a situation like this I rarely see it break one way, then the other, then back again but anything can happen, so it's a case of accepting a small loss if you're wrong then hopefully making up for it on the other end.
Going to start journaling my trades again this new year. My style has developed a bit, as I am still fairly new back at this but spent alot of time in front of the screen studying how things play out. Reflecting on some of the trades before on breakouts the approach has been a bit scattershot. I am still trading breakouts but including a lot of scalping of confluence areas on the shorter TFs. I trade tight SLs and RR between 1:1/1:3. Overall my trading is getting better but I struggle with frustrating situaitons sometimes. Yesterday I missed two huge moves- my analysis was correct but I was caught out with poor stop placements. Overall, I move my stop to BE too quickly. Here are two trades this morning with comments.
First was this on Cable. I noticed a flag developing before LO. I took a short trade on the confluence of top of the flag, Pivot, 0.382 and a 15m pinbar off of rejection from bearish OB. It dropped immediately for 15 pips, I set my stop to BE, it reversed on a minor support and took me out BE.
Reflection- I could have left my stop wider on this occasion, or re-entered at the same spot for a nice drop out of the flag (original target S1). Another re-entry point could have been retest of the flag.
I entered this trade on Euro around LO, entered on the 5m candle rejection from bullish OB, pivot and lower TL. Rode up and took 15 pips at minor support line. Happy with how this played out as I timed the entry and TP well for 2x R
Took this double bottom break with divergence long, DXY was rejected off of a retest of 0.5 Fib, so I believe dollar is continued down and hence cable up.
However I just took 7 pips for 1xR as it was moving slowly... will see if it continues up
Update with how it played out, retested neckline/confluence area and went the way I intended... the retest would have been a valid entry
Took this short on a confluence area Euro, 0.682 retrace, same with DXY, resistance and channel top... took out BE, re-entered, BE again... just leaving it now
