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The Swamp

  • #78,801
  • Nov 25, 2020 3:00am Nov 25, 2020 3:00am
Quoting Blackopal
So far EU run on it's own. Other $US pairs below highs. UJ not doing too badly either. DXY 92.06, currently slightly above low of two days ago, although 30 minute TF wick today slightly below that low. EU looking like it touched hot stove
I got one small short at 1.1924, half my usual size. Literally saw it 2 or 3 minutes after it touched high and pulled back marginally when I walked into house after getting home from work.. I thought it would bounce from 1.1920 area and was going to wait to see P.A at highs b4 larger short. I don't think it will make it back to 1.193 now, though I expect an attempt. I just shorted 1.1909
  • #78,802
  • Nov 25, 2020 3:02am Nov 25, 2020 3:02am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Like I said the usdx did close/open bearish. Both the week and day are bearish to me. I have monthly supports 91.91 ish. Other month supports 91.97, 91.72, 92.14. Minor 92.10, 92.15, 92.18. The usd looks set up to drop. I'm not sure it can. Maybe another bounce first.

usdx month supports are alive still. Month R on gu and eu still work, for now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #78,803
  • Nov 25, 2020 3:09am Nov 25, 2020 3:09am
My long term uptrend line is slightly lower than yours Gator. I haven't zoomed in on it lately to check accuracy, I may be wrong, but I have it at 92.2 today
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #78,804
  • Nov 25, 2020 3:26am Nov 25, 2020 3:26am
*EU'S VON DER LEYEN SAYS LARGE DIFFERENCES WITH U.K. REMAIN - BBG
EU's Von Der Leyen: Cannot Say If There Will Be Deal
  • #78,805
  • Nov 25, 2020 3:30am Nov 25, 2020 3:30am
Quoting Blackopal
My long term uptrend line is slightly lower than yours Gator. I haven't zoomed in on it lately to check accuracy, I may be wrong, but I have it at 92.2 today {image} {image}
about the same place.. Pa has been below. Those big tl can be crossed. Just like the one around 1.0870.. it went 100 pips below it. Later it rejected it to where we are now. This 92.20 and even 91.7 area are a prime place to reverse course. Often after summer range it will do something different.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #78,806
  • Nov 25, 2020 3:42am Nov 25, 2020 3:42am
Last hour closed 1.19099, right on breakout spike area. 18 minutes now to 4H candle, looking bearish.
  • #78,807
  • Nov 25, 2020 3:43am Nov 25, 2020 3:43am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} about the same place.. Pa has been below. Those big tl can be crossed. Just like the one around 1.0870.. it went 100 pips below it. Later it rejected it to where we are now. This 92.20 and even 91.7 area are a prime place to reverse course. Often after summer range it will do something different.
Yes lots of breakout spikes on other pairs long term trendlines recently, including some daily closes that have given up.
  • #78,808
  • Nov 25, 2020 3:45am Nov 25, 2020 3:45am
I think bears will need a 1H or better 4H close below 1.1892
  • #78,809
  • Nov 25, 2020 4:04am Nov 25, 2020 4:04am
Quoting Blackopal
*EU'S VON DER LEYEN SAYS LARGE DIFFERENCES WITH U.K. REMAIN - BBG EU's Von Der Leyen: Cannot Say If There Will Be Deal
eg has ranged all summer. so far, can't hold below 8865, my last month support. what can't go down, may go up. gu wise 3482 last or 3395 second to last (gu reached 3395). eu still has more wiggle room to me. 1880 1965 and 2011. But it to has to deal with the usd support.

If usd holds 917x and eg support holds .8865. Since both of these supports are on the outermost edge. For the eu to reach 1965, the gu will probably drop more. It seems harder for gu to rise. I know this can change.

As long as EG, and USDX supports hold, gu is a better short. Over eu to me. Void if support fails. eg still respects the summer range. It did make a hh and this last push is a slightly higher low atm. The leg off the high may be a bull flag.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #78,810
  • Nov 25, 2020 4:07am Nov 25, 2020 4:07am
hi, a typical triple bottom, will most likely bump off it, what does your gut tell you? (more often than not, it just isn't that easy, brother : )
"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
  • #78,811
  • Nov 25, 2020 4:15am Nov 25, 2020 4:15am
eu 12h just closed above the day 1892. gu 12h closed below day.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #78,812
  • Nov 25, 2020 4:25am Nov 25, 2020 4:25am
trade by a few points, and get swamped by same, I guess : )
"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
  • #78,813
  • Nov 25, 2020 4:28am Nov 25, 2020 4:28am
Quoting yani38
hi, a typical triple bottom, will most likely bump off it, what does your gut tell you? (more often than not, it just isn't that easy, brother : )
You cant walk in the theater in the middle of the movie, and know the plot.
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} eg may have some support at .8866 ish.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #78,814
  • Nov 25, 2020 4:29am Nov 25, 2020 4:29am
20 points down on one trade, needs a 40 point gain on your next, just to be ahead
"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
  • #78,815
  • Nov 25, 2020 4:36am Nov 25, 2020 4:36am
personally, I'd get rid of so many lines on that Chart you posted, total tunnel vision. Sit back, watch for bit, come in fresh, works for me : )
"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
  • #78,816
  • Nov 25, 2020 4:44am Nov 25, 2020 4:44am
Quoting yani38
personally, I'd get rid of so many lines on that Chart you posted, total tunnel vision. Sit back, watch for bit, come in fresh, works for me : )
Thanks.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #78,817
  • Nov 25, 2020 4:45am Nov 25, 2020 4:45am
Quoting yani38
personally, I'd get rid of so many lines on that Chart you posted, total tunnel vision. Sit back, watch for bit, come in fresh, works for me : )
Sounds like you'll be able to start your own thread
  • #78,818
  • Nov 25, 2020 4:51am Nov 25, 2020 4:51am
Nah, just check in occasionally to see what the majority are doing : )
"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
  • #78,819
  • Nov 25, 2020 4:53am Nov 25, 2020 4:53am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} eg has ranged all summer. so far, can't hold below 8865, my last month support. what can't go down, may go up. gu wise 3482 last or 3395 second to last (gu reached 3395). eu still has more wiggle room to me. 1880 1965 and 2011. But it to has to deal with the usd support. If usd holds 917x and eg support holds .8865. Since both of these supports are on the outermost edge. For the eu to reach 1965, the gu will probably drop more. It seems harder for gu to rise. I know this can change. As long as EG, and USDX supports hold, gu is a better short....
Makes sense. Fits fundamentals of no brexit as well. I was expecting EU might break the 1.19 barrier any day. The increased frequency of assaults on it, especially the way it got knocked back yesterday then turned and had another attempt at it so quickly after only a small retrace. And previous knock back only went down to 1.18, then attacked again. I will see if the dealers can push down to 1.187 for their option expiry today, and take profits around there, if the chance arises.
  • #78,820
  • Nov 25, 2020 4:58am Nov 25, 2020 4:58am
"Makes sense. Fits fundamentals". Yeah, I guess you're right. Put that one down to 'Quote of the Year', do you mind if I use it?
"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
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