Took a quick scalp long from 11834 but exited with just +2, I think it will pull back a while yet but it wasn't moving quickly enough for me.
A very straightforward breakout, wedge short to S1/bottom of the wedge and then potentially a long on the break from the trendline. MACD divergence backs up both. I find this combined with a chart pattern gives high probability trades.
Bit of a tough one and I ended up stopping out at breakeven before the huge move up.
1- Original break up of a descending wedge about 6.15am. I 'should have' exited this at breakeven after the reactions to R2 and an opposing signal at point 2.
2- Opposing signal short that I didn't take as I remained long. This would have went 10 pips in profit with a target of daily pivot before being stopped out BE.
3- Break of a descending channel/bull flag took me in long, however I set my stop to BE early after the choppy price action. According to my rules, I should have waited so ended up missing the leg up. The TL forming at point 4 showed a reverse H&S pattern too. Unfortunately I was at the gym and monitoring this on my phone.. so my judgement was off.
Some lack of focus today, in reality I did not follow my own rules- luckily I caught a bull flag on cable to bring me into positive territory but not counting it for the purposes of this system being primarily EUR/USD breakouts. I will refine my trading plan accordingly.. every day's a school day.
Broke my own rules again, didn't move my stop to BE after a 10 pip move to the bottom of the wedge- very foolish as it went against me - here i was 'expecting' a drop. I made up for it however with a couple of nice trades on GU and EU. Missed the EU long as I was in GU, in theory this was a valid set up but there was bearish divergence so I wasn't keen. I made the short from the 11885 area to daily pivot for a tidy 30 pips. On cable I captured also a very nice move down from 13342 to psych level 13300 which converged with a 4h TL.. came within 2 pips of stopping me out at BE but I wasn't gonna make the same mistake again. This would have also triggered a long on the break of the subsequent TL as it included divergence, but I left it for the day. So -12, +30 +42 = 60 pips
Overall turned into a solid day, but this kind of choppy price action doesn't suit trendline breaks. Luckily the moves were enough to get my stops to breakeven but it was frustrating to watch trades go 10 pips in my favour, and constantly enter up then down, then stop out BE. Sometimes I'm left wondering if it would just be better to take what's on the table and call it a day but ultimately we need to have a favourable RR to cover the losing trades. I'd far far rather take +15-20 pips before 9am then call it a day. The nice thing about TL breaks is the momentum is in your favour when you take the trade and your stoploss is able to be placed very tight, i.e just above the TL you broke. The channel bounce was a gift- just seemed like such an obvious trade given how perfectly the channel formed.
