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The Swamp

  • #77,741
  • Nov 8, 2020 4:36pm Nov 8, 2020 4:36pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} Indeed. Doesn't make sense with the long term time series DXY or EURUSD vs Dems/Reps regime. GS are saying the same thing. UBS as well. Their global chief investment officer talking to Bloomberg 4 days ago here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...cio-says-video Go to 1:00

And at 3:40
"...dollars weakness is something to play in the next year..."
  • #77,742
  • Edited 5:03pm Nov 8, 2020 4:41pm | Edited 5:03pm
Dipped a toe. Short 87
Short GU 1.3163 20 pip SL
  • #77,743
  • Nov 8, 2020 5:16pm Nov 8, 2020 5:16pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} Indeed. Doesn't make sense with the long term time series DXY or EURUSD vs Dems/Reps regime. GS are saying the same thing. UBS as well. Their global chief investment officer talking to Bloomberg 4 days ago here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...cio-says-video Go to 1:00
You both may be right. But if your wrong, the springback could be large. If your wrong, the usd is on the bottom.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #77,744
  • Edited 7:04pm Nov 8, 2020 5:25pm | Edited 7:04pm
UC long 1.3007 edit that's my SL

Shorted at 1.30206
  • #77,745
  • Nov 8, 2020 5:45pm Nov 8, 2020 5:45pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} You both may be right. But if your wrong, the springback could be large. If your wrong, the usd is on the bottom. {image}
There is also a big 2008 TL being played on the EURUSD. Let's see where we go from there.
Probably stimulus talks will be key there.
  • #77,746
  • Nov 8, 2020 6:03pm Nov 8, 2020 6:03pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} There is also a big 2008 TL being played on the EURUSD. Let's see where we go from there. Probably stimulus talks will be key there.
If your right,, here we go. If your wrong -1208 may be here to close the year. Atm you got sentient and momentum on your side. All depends on usd support giving up or not. Trump not conceding probably is helping the usd weaken.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #77,747
  • Nov 8, 2020 6:08pm Nov 8, 2020 6:08pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} There is also a big 2008 TL being played on the EURUSD. Let's see where we go from there. Probably stimulus talks will be key there.
If GS is wrong, +96.52 should close the year.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #77,748
  • Nov 8, 2020 6:13pm Nov 8, 2020 6:13pm
History wise, usd 92.xx has a lot of reject traffic over the years. That dont mean it will happen this time. The tl is in the same area.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #77,749
  • Nov 8, 2020 7:44pm Nov 8, 2020 7:44pm
FX option expiries for Monday November 09 at the 10am NY cut
Mon 9 Nov 2020 01:15:38 GMT
Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: Forex Orders

EUR/USD

  1. 1.1800 782m euro amount
  2. 1.1900 3.1bn

GBP/USD

  1. 1.3000 705m GBP amount
  2. 1.3100 462m
  3. 1.3250 309m

  • #77,750
  • Nov 8, 2020 10:11pm Nov 8, 2020 10:11pm
Quoting Boulder
FX option expiries for Monday November 09 at the 10am NY cut Mon 9 Nov 2020 01:15:38 GMT Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: Forex Orders EUR/USD 1.1800 782m euro amount 1.1900 3.1bn GBP/USD 1.3000 705m GBP amount 1.3100 462m 1.3250 309m
Cable sellers feeling the pain...those 705m at 1.3000 will really be feeling the heat...

Cable was red pre-market, opened down but has since rapidly rose...

EU in 15 pips range, not sure what happens.

Seems like another dry Asian session whereby whatever happened last NY simply gets extended. Will wait for London.
I will tear the world apart for you.
  • #77,751
  • Nov 8, 2020 10:26pm Nov 8, 2020 10:26pm
Quoting Boulder
FX option expiries for Monday November 09 at the 10am NY cut Mon 9 Nov 2020 01:15:38 GMT Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: Forex Orders EUR/USD 1.1800 782m euro amount 1.1900 3.1bn GBP/USD 1.3000 705m GBP amount 1.3100 462m 1.3250 309m
eu looks like 1900 minimal. sentiment indicates rise, plus trend. Its hard to hold one against the usdx tl.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #77,752
  • Nov 9, 2020 1:08am Nov 9, 2020 1:08am
1.32 for GU nice
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #77,753
  • Nov 9, 2020 2:06am Nov 9, 2020 2:06am
Good day to all....bought some USD/CHF for long-term swap...

Waiting for dust to settle...will explore trades earliest after another hour.
I will tear the world apart for you.
  • #77,754
  • Nov 9, 2020 2:31am Nov 9, 2020 2:31am
Quoting Barnell
Good day to all....bought some USD/CHF for long-term swap... Waiting for dust to settle...will explore trades earliest after another hour.
TRY is a falling rock carrying "high yield return", due to its "junk" nature. Borrowing in the most negative ccy and buying the TRY on Wed, when you cash in (or pay) 3 days in a row, just before the cut-off, then loading-off just after, while hedging with options, could be great.

Only issue is I haven't found yet any TRY option.

Can't find CHFTRY, only JPYTRY. And for the option, I see only xxx/JPY as potential available candidate. Still devising a plan how to get into that. 2 certainties: TRY is a free-falling rock, and it bears double-digits overnight interests.

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Any idea how to get into that welcome.
  • #77,755
  • Nov 9, 2020 2:39am Nov 9, 2020 2:39am
German Trade Balance couldn't get EURUSD to breakout. Now comes Christine, who probably has something in her mind to keep this from happening, as much as she can. Current level seems good for ECB. Still EURUSD has been consolidating for a while now. It's about time to pick a direction.
  • #77,756
  • Nov 9, 2020 2:40am Nov 9, 2020 2:40am
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} TRY is a falling rock carrying "high yield return", due to its "junk" nature. Borrowing in the most negative ccy and buying the TRY on Wed, when you cash in (or pay) 3 days in a row, just before the cut-off, then loading-off just after, while hedging with options, could be great. Only issue is I haven't found yet any TRY option. Can't find CHFTRY, only JPYTRY. And for the option, I see only xxx/JPY as potential available candidate. Still devising a plan how to get into that. 2 certainties: TRY is a free-falling rock, and it bears double-digits...
Beautiful idea, I'm wary of the currencies involved. I spend half the time living in Singapore (my dad is Singaporean) and Singaporeans used to love buying AUD for the high interest as well. Many Singaporeans used to buy AUD when AUD/SGD was at 1.300 and held for interest. Today, AUD/SGD is at 0.96-0.98 range.
I will tear the world apart for you.
  • #77,757
  • Nov 9, 2020 2:47am Nov 9, 2020 2:47am
testing H1 uptrend stop 1868 atm.. lets see bulls can hold..
  • #77,758
  • Nov 9, 2020 2:55am Nov 9, 2020 2:55am
Quoting Barnell
{quote} Beautiful idea, I'm wary of the currencies involved. I spend half the time living in Singapore (my dad is Singaporean) and Singaporeans used to love buying AUD for the high interest as well. Many Singaporeans used to buy AUD when AUD/SGD was at 1.300 and held for interest. Today, AUD/SGD is at 0.96-0.98 range.
Very important to cover with an option and let it run until the carry is closed (just a matter of a few minutes).
Would be just so beautiful to have options involving TRY directly.
  • #77,759
  • Nov 9, 2020 3:01am Nov 9, 2020 3:01am
Quoting Boulder
testing H1 uptrend stop 1868 atm.. lets see bulls can hold..
Eu bulls held at H1 close.. .. ..
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  • #77,760
  • Nov 9, 2020 3:02am Nov 9, 2020 3:02am
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} Very important to cover with an option and let it run until the carry is closed (just a matter of a few minutes). Would be just so beautiful to have options involving TRY directly.
For options I am more inclined towards stock. My interest-strategy for forex is simply to pick an interest-bearing pair that I have a positive outlook in the long term, but so far, it isn't really working with USD/JPY and USD/CHF coming off, gold surging (gold sells used to give good swap) and many pairs that used to give good swap are no longer giving good swap.
I will tear the world apart for you.
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