NZD/CAD

Thanks for the table. I know the theory: when too many retail traders are long, big banks will move price down and take our money... I understand the logic and agree with the logic itself. Have you, however, verified/seen this logic work in practice? These numbers are usually daily and they change very quickly. Also, I have noticed that it takes sometimes days even a couple of weeks these numbers to eventually support the logic. So, for somebody buying and holding weeks, yes, these numbers are probably reliable. For most of us, the small traders, it is a question of hours or a couple of days to keep a position. So, these numbers are basically telling me that other people see what I see... And I know, you would say this is exactly the problem... the big guys will come against us... and maybe they will. Let's see.

By the way, where do your numbers/table come from? I do look at several sentiment sites (Oanda, Dukascopy, DailyFX, Saxo) but have not seen your kind of a table.

Let's look at this from another perspective. If the SSI data was not relevant, would you have 70-80% fail rate for daytraders with top 10 FX brokers?

Yes, you are right, AUD and NZD move like twins most of the time. AUD, however, started a clear downtrend versus the NZD (as of last week) and could be UP on Mon/Tue but then I am expecting it to hit the upper channel line and start going back down again. So, IMHO, NZD should strengthen against AUD and against pretty much all other major currencies. Of course, I could easily be wrong... as I have been... So, I wish you good profits next week !

Do you have an explanation then why would traders not simply look at the sentiment data and just trade against the crowd? Is it a question of ego, discipline, something else?

most retail FX traders are day traders / scalpers. SSI data is only useful for position traders, someone who holds a position for over 24 hours.

also you have to trade extremes in SSI data, such as the current outlook in EURJPY.
And to trade it you need to zoom out to H4/D1 chart.
No point in trading this intra-day.

Following up on my previous post, the big boys were quite impatient a couple of hours ago. Did not let price go down to the magenta line in the green zone and pushed price UP before reaching my target. They should not be able, however, to break to the upside the down-sloping line today (Oct. 8th) and should wait for Oct. 9th to do this. Then it should be UP until the end of this week (Oct. 11th) reaching 0.84700 (somewhere there)...

All NZD and AUD pairs running a day late with the breakout to the upside but finally happening. AUD should be stronger than NZD in the next several days. So, I am doing these analysis to identify whether to enter NZD or AUD pairs (I am long in AUD, not NZD). I am getting cautious about NZD for next week (Oct. 14-18) as it may loose some steam and weaken...

bit risky IMO.

NZDCAD selling now.
Please Check this Video

Hey everyone! NZDCAD has some interesting movement.

Im confused however with the direction once we hit the .8600 mark, any insight?

Thanks!

uptrend.
supporting reasons:
1. higher high higher low
2. upward sloping trendline
3. big round number 0.86
4. moving average
5. support or demand zone
6. osma hidden divergence
7. weekly support
8. weekly inverse head and shoulder

nearing to resistance

Monday, March 9, 2020

first post in here this year?

bit of a stop feast going on today

trade safe, ha ha ha

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make it 2.....h
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Looks interesting may I tinker with it and give it back..

Last Weekly candle + broken trendline are good signs for sell on higher time frames.

If it breaks the box upperside, possible "risky"long target 0.91 area. But from 0.91 we have a good opportunity to sell