reverse martingale (Anti Martingale) EA

dear trader,

please look at the picture below.....

i once tried to chek out how often a position with 1:1 ratio will in a row with an random entry..
the result was 19 times in a row in 3 years backtesting...

i added a reverse martingale to this strategy... meaning i doubled my amount when i won... of course i won 19 times in a row and doubled it up as much as i could in backtester.... what did happen?

i won 19 times.... so my risk were at that moment the initial lot size per trade which was 0.01 with 18 pipps stopp loss (20 pipp tp at that moment)
... i lost 1.8$ per trade... but i won 19 times the doubled initial amount ... soo it was something like this 64.000$ win compared to 540 $ loss about 270 tries. (19 trades win in a row in 3 years of backtesting)

so basicaly i took these settings and let it code to an ea in mt4


TP: 20 pipp
SL: 18 Pipp (because of 2 pipp spread)
initial lot size: 0.01
reverse martingale multiplier: 2.0 (if it was a win multiply the lot size by 2 of the trade before)
spread filter: 2 pipps max
random entry direction

thats all...
so i can only loose 2$ per trade no mather what happens, but if i win a row of trades i will make money
as i mentioned in 3 years backtesting i won 19 times randomly in a row.... soooo... it was like that

1. Trade 2$ Win 0.01 lot size 20 pip
2. Trade 4$ Win 0.02 lot size 20 pip
3. Trade 8$ Win 0.04 lot size 20 pip
4. Trade 16$ Win 0.08 lot size 20 pip
5. Trade 32$ Win 0.16 lot size 20 pip
6. Trade 64$ Win 0.32 lot size 20 pip
7. Trade 128$ Win and so on
8. Trade 256$ Win
9. Trade 512$ Win
10. Trade 1024$ Win
11. Trade 2048$ Win
12. Trade 4096$ Win

somewhere the maximum lot size amount was reached and he didnt multiply anymore but as i can remember i won about 64000 $ and had a drawdown of 540$...
so i tried to make the strategy faster..

of course as we all know ... it happens rarely that we will win 19 times in a row with a R:R ratio of 1:1 ..... it happend once in 3 years backtesting.

i tried to figure out how to make it faster ... and i took 5 trades at the same time with a random entry every time in a row...



the coder who did my ea coded it well but its very slow in backtesting, so i am asking you if you would be interested in reprogramm my EA and work together to figure out how we can increase the speed of reaching a high level of consecutive win trades in a row.

i will send a backtest picture of last test of my EA ... this was in 1 month testing time ... but the EA is bugging and not doing maximum trades and very slow...

so i cant backtest the strategy as i want... thats why i am asking you if you know how to make the backtest faster? and if you wann join working on this strategy?


basically:

- i would love your opinion on the strategy?
- and maybe you have an idea how to improve it even more?
- and maybe you can help me somehow to make the backtest faster?
- or create an new ea with this strategy?

i will send my EA here so you can backtest and chek the strategy by yourself..


in the example on the picture you can see... he needed 400 trades to hit a row of winners... cause 5 trades were randomly multipling.. and he won fast...
400 trades took him 20 days... so in 20 days he made a profit of 5000,-

if somebody could correct the EA we could do more backtest... cause it really looks promising kind of..

i would love to have the EA repaired and be able to backtest it...




pls join this chat if you are interested in this kind of EA settings and "playing" with ideas...

and sorry for my english i am not a native.
KR

as you can see here:

the settings i did for this backtest!

and the result after 1-2 month



the problem is it is bad coded... for this backtest i needed 1 h ! ---.----

so if anybody could help me make it faster, I WOULD LOVE IT!!!

kr

Great job and go ahead.. this is better with cent accounts..

I find your idea is really interesting. Actually I am doing it manually right now. Do you have any update on this?

In what time frame do you use this EA?

GBPUSD

"Strategy": open SELL at 12:00 (my timezone) with TP 90 SL 70. If win and time < 16:00 then open next SELL. Otherwise, wait the next day.

Raise x2 on every win no more than 8 times in a row.

Results: from 1000 USD in 10 years made profit 12500 USD, max drawdown ~750 USD. Was 7 bingos. The last one is in 2020.



And here when scaling on success (double init lots after bingo):

Hi joyny

Could you explain :

GBPUSD

"Strategy": open SELL at 12:00 (my timezone) ( what is your timezone compared to London open ?) with TP 90 SL 70. If win and time < 16:00 then open next SELL. Otherwise, wait the next day. ( what time ?)

And if loss ?

Raise x2 on every win no more than 8 times in a row.

Results: from 1000 USD in 10 years made profit 12500 USD, max drawdown ~750 USD. Was 7 bingos. The last one is in 2020.

Thank you.

TS must be a millionaire by now.

Expectation and reality.

While the idea sounds attractive, you will not tolerate months or years of small losses waiting for your bingo moments.

If there is an EA for this we can just start with small capital and put it on VPS. We forget about it and see what happen after few months, who knows we got the jackpot

When London is 8:00 AM I have 10:00 AM (+2h)

Examples (my timezone):

1) Open SELL at 12:00, it hit SL or TP at 14:30 then open next SELL because time is still less than 16:00

2) Open SELL at 12:00, it hit SL or TP at 18:30 then wait next day 12:00 and open again SELL

If loss - reset order volume to initial 0.01 lots and open next SELL if time is right.

[quote = joyny; 13239708] {quote} Quand Londres est 8h00, j'ai 10h00 (+ 2h) Exemples (mon fuseau horaire): 1) Ouvrez SELL à 12h00, il a frappé SL ou TP à 14: 30 puis ouvrez le prochain VENTE car le temps est toujours inférieur à 16h00 2) Ouvrez SELL à 12h00, il a frappé SL ou TP à 18h30 puis attendez le lendemain 12h00 et ouvrez à nouveau VENDRE Si perte initialiser 0,01 lot et ouvrir la prochaine vente si le temps est venu. [/ quote]

So the trade is triggered 3 hours after London open ...correct ?
why don't begin the trade at London open ?

are you doing this strategy? do you have EA for it? I found EA to open trade on exact time but thats it, no doubling the lot or open order again after winning.

@vortexpme
"TP: 20 pipp
SL: 18 Pipp (because of 2 pipp spread)
initial lot size: 0.01
reverse martingale multiplier: 2.0 (if it was a win multiply the lot size by 2 of the trade before)
spread filter: 2 pipps max
random entry direction

thats all...
so i can only lose 2$ per trade no matter what happens, but if i win a row of trades i will make money"

As intriguing as this method appears to be, I just don't understand one important point that nobody has addressed.. How can the losses be limited to 2$ per trade when you're doubling your trade size with a 1:1 Risk:Reward format? The math indicates that for each doubling of the trade size, you're not only doubling the reward but also doubling the risk. For example, let's say you win twice in a row and your initial trade size was 0.01 lots. By trade three, the lot size increases to 0.04 lots (Trade1 = 0.01 lots, Trade2 = 0.02 lots, Trade3=0.04 lots). At a 1:1 risk:reward, if you suffer a loss, you're down 18pips x 0.04 lots which is 4 times the loss of a 0.01 lot trade and will wipe out the profit of the winning trades. The math behind this doesn't make sense...

Best,

Dave

Edit1: As Joy correctly points out in the post below, you will ALWAYS end up with the initial loss 2$ loss once a losing trade is hit after a winning streak.

Edit2: I've attached a (revised) spreadsheet that calculates the P/L after 1000 random trades using the Reverse Martingale method proposed by the OP. User inputs are highlighted in yellow. The spreadsheet also includes a graphic of the 1000 trades. To change the results of the 1000 trade output, just go to any blank cell, type in any symbol or letter, and hit the return key.

1. Volume 0.01. On TP 20 pips = 2 usd profit
2. Volume 0.02 on TP 20 pips = 4 usd profit (total 6 usd profit so far)
3. Volume 0.04 on SL 18 pips (+ 2 spread) = - 8 usd. But you had +6 in previous 2 trades so total loss -2 usd

so on each trade you risk no more than 2 usd

1. Volume 0.01. On TP 20 pips = 2 usd profit
2. Volume 0.02 on TP 20 pips = 4 usd profit (total 6 usd profit so far)
3. Volume 0.04 on TP 20 pips = 8 usd profit (total 14 usd)
4. Volume 0.08 on SL 18 pips (+2 pread) = -16 usd. But you had +14 accumulated profits before - so again -2 usd

each step is risk -2 usd.

Have made ea on mt5 for this. Just play arround with optimizations and backtests in mt5 strategy tester.

Yes 3h after London open. That's results of 10 years optimization. Turns out for SELL with tp 90 and sl 70 thats best time for entry according to stats.

@joy,

Hi joy,

I must be dense, but I just don't get how this can be profitable when ONE losing trade, after a winning streak, takes out the entire profit gained during the winning streak? So what I don't understand is the positive stair-step results that you're getting in the back tests. Every time you have a winning streak, ALL of the profit from the streak gets wiped out when a loss occurs.

From your post above:

1. Volume 0.01. On TP 20 pips = 2 usd profit
2. Volume 0.02 on TP 20 pips = 4 usd profit (total 6 usd profit so far)
3. Volume 0.04 on SL 18 pips (+ 2 spread) = - 8 usd. But you had +6 in previous 2 trades so total loss = -2 usd

so on each trade you risk no more than 2 usd

1. Volume 0.01. On TP 20 pips = 2 usd profit
2. Volume 0.02 on TP 20 pips = 4 usd profit (total 6 usd profit so far)
3. Volume 0.04 on TP 20 pips = 8 usd profit (total 14 usd)
4. Volume 0.08 on SL 18 pips (+2 pread) = -16 usd. But you had +14 accumulated profits before - so again total loss = -2 usd


You still end up with a negative P/L no matter how large the P/L gain was during the winning streak. I ran a Martingale analysis on this and the only way to have a slight chance at getting a profit (after 1000 trades) is with a winning % >60%

Best,

Dave

@ Dave
I think you should restart the lot after just say 5 consecutive winning trade. In this way you have 31R profit which means you have covered 31 loss.

Hi guys,
I'm using this strategy but the only way (IMHO) to render it a solid strategy is to put a cap on the profit and restart the marti after - for example - 5 consecutive wins. And this is actually the so-called "The roulette system" or "roulette trader", don't remember the precise name.
If we leave the marti run, at the end you will always close in negative, doesn't matter if only for 2 USD or 200, plus spread, commissions and general costs...
I will check tomorrow my mq4 files...
Have a lovely November!
Walt