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  • #1,241
  • Nov 3, 2006 7:58am Nov 3, 2006 7:58am
seems to be stalling in the low 980s. but with all these upward revisions I think the direction is strongly down.

my current T/P is at 18969 (60 pips). I may just take part profits there and leave a small position open.

But there's also ISM data due out in a few hours so I'm tempted to just take the money and sleep easy.
  • #1,242
  • Nov 3, 2006 8:12am Nov 3, 2006 8:12am
ISM will not fight the NFP, i guess..What do you think? Any idea please?
Hello World
  • #1,243
  • Nov 3, 2006 8:28am Nov 3, 2006 8:28am
your guess is as good as mine. Probably better in fact, since its 130am here.

but you're in profit now, so just relax. move your S/L so you can't lose anything and then just wait and see what the market tells you. It looks to have just rejected 19000 again. So a good sign so far.


and agreed jacko, these massive revisions are a joke.
no doubt this month's will be revised in november..
  • #1,244
  • Nov 3, 2006 9:14am Nov 3, 2006 9:14am
I went short at 1.9028. After the price moved 40 pips in my direction I moved the SL to BE and have it trailing now.
  • #1,245
  • Nov 3, 2006 9:27am Nov 3, 2006 9:27am
Quoting mpathare
I went short at 1.9028. After the price moved 40 pips in my direction I moved the SL to BE and have it trailing now.
mpathare,

Congratulations...that is intelligent trading...you are now risk free trading...it doesn't get any better than that.
  • #1,246
  • Nov 3, 2006 9:39am Nov 3, 2006 9:39am
Quoting jacko
mpathare,

Congratulations...that is intelligent trading...you are now risk free trading...it doesn't get any better than that.
Thanks.

How many of you will keep your shorts open over the weekend? or do you plan to close your trades at or before 5:00pm EST? I will keep my trade open and see what Monday brings.
  • #1,247
  • Nov 3, 2006 7:13pm Nov 3, 2006 7:13pm
Quoting mpathare
Thanks.

How many of you will keep your shorts open over the weekend? or do you plan to close your trades at or before 5:00pm EST? I will keep my trade open and see what Monday brings.
I took all profit on cable short position for my weekend shopping :-) Been scalping during a few day of sideway movement and make profit. I left some short position open just before the news with tight stop loss. Take profit at 9035 and 9005 level. What a nice start of the month!
  • #1,248
  • Nov 4, 2006 2:47am Nov 4, 2006 2:47am
morning, what do you guys think about how far gbp/usd will go. i think it´ll go till 1.8752 (62 % retracement). if the next real body bar closes above the low from friday and the tuesday´s bar under friday´s low then it goes min. 160 pips down.

i know this is just speculations.
  • #1,249
  • Nov 4, 2006 5:01am Nov 4, 2006 5:01am
Dear Technical Traders,
Please use this thread to discuss GBP/USD technical analysis and please post your charts.

QS.
"Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses" George Muzea
  • #1,250
  • Nov 4, 2006 5:28am Nov 4, 2006 5:28am
Gbp/usd
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"Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses" George Muzea
  • #1,251
  • Nov 4, 2006 5:38am Nov 4, 2006 5:38am
Ops sorry. I mean either London or US open it will countinue to drop.


QS.
"Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses" George Muzea
  • #1,252
  • Nov 4, 2006 6:24am Nov 4, 2006 6:24am
Quoting Qu|cksilver
Gbp/usd
My thoughts exactly......I have studied the day before and day after NFP and I totally agree with your chart the short term trend is down I am expecting 8850 by Monday 16:00 p.m based on my analysis...hence
I would like to go short around market opening My price target for selling would between 9023 and 9033 and my target is 8950.
  • #1,253
  • Nov 4, 2006 6:31am Nov 4, 2006 6:31am
Yes correct! good luck to you.
But i will trigger short at 1.8971

Have a nice weeked.

QS.


Quoting rav700
My thoughts exactly......I have studied the day before and day after NFP and I totally agree with your chart the short term trend is down I am expecting 8850 by Monday 16:00 p.m based on my analysis...hence
I would like to go short around market opening My price target for selling would between 9023 and 9033 and my target is 8950.
"Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses" George Muzea
  • #1,254
  • Nov 4, 2006 8:25am Nov 4, 2006 8:25am
Quoting jacko
Hi waf_1988



What a total farce this makes of the numbers. Fortunately, I am short the Euro but these revisions are just a disgrace!!

230k vs 188k = 22.3% error
148k vs 51k = 190% error

To all the researchers in the Dept ...YOU'RE FIRED !!!
Hence It the new name for the nfp
The Bush-Farm-Payroll :-)
  • #1,255
  • Nov 4, 2006 1:17pm Nov 4, 2006 1:17pm
The past week formed shooting star or inverted hammer, if you like, on the weekly chart. I expect the downtrend to continue this week.
I fully agree, that range 1.9023-1.9033, that is "support became resistance" and also 38-50% retracement level of friday's drop, is indeed good selling opportunity.
  • #1,256
  • Nov 4, 2006 1:42pm Nov 4, 2006 1:42pm
On daily charts, draw fibonacci retracement from previous week high 9134 to immediate previous low around 8673.

Now, the 61.8% retracement lies around 8953 which is also a good support level.

There are possibilities of a bounce off this level, based on this

"The event calendar from the US is pretty thin with focus on Mid-Term Election on Tuesday and Trade Balance on Thursday. Also highly focused on Thursday is BoE's announcement which is expected to hike rate from 4.75% to 5.00%. RBA is also widely expected to raise rate from 6% to 6.25% this week. "

But should cable break 8953 level, we could go down much lower.

On the upside 9047 provides a good resistance, and as long as cable stays below this level, chances of further weakness exist.
  • #1,257
  • Nov 4, 2006 2:24pm Nov 4, 2006 2:24pm
Very appropriate point. 1.8953 is indeed the next key level here.
Should GBPUSD tries to bounce before another drop, we have 1.9028 38.2 fib of recent decline from 1.9115-1.8975. If that failed, most probably near 1.9045. I will try shorts at these retracements if occur.

Good luck all shorts
Forex is not easy!
  • #1,258
  • Nov 4, 2006 3:49pm Nov 4, 2006 3:49pm
Yes guys im in league with your analysis here... id be suprised to see price drop thru the 9000 handle quickly thought, however im eye balling 8950 as the next key support zone... im short from 9090 and debating if I should move SL to BE or keep it above 9134 I may move it down to BE if price moves lower my goal on a swing move is to lock in at least 50 pips at a time... Def a few levels price could rally off of, question is are these retracements or reversals leading into further weakness... I would expect larger support lies in the 8600 zone... based on previous lows where price launched from.
  • #1,259
  • Nov 4, 2006 4:20pm Nov 4, 2006 4:20pm
more food for thought...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...refer=currency
  • #1,260
  • Nov 4, 2006 7:17pm Nov 4, 2006 7:17pm
In fact, I would personally keep the stoploss just above 1.9133/1.9142 barriers. These are strong highs, especially the 1.9142.

On the upside indeed we have 1.9028/1.9045 fibonacci levels, beside more resistance in the 1.9115 Fri high zone. Followed by 1.9133/42

Given combination of technical and fundamental analysis here, it's harder to crack the upside now, and my 4hr setup has confirmed a short trade but we can't rule out a retracement to one of these fib's

On the downside we need to crack lows at 1.8975-8950 to extend the move to 1.8900/8870 area

I read that article, it's clear that jobs data scaled back some expectations of cutting rates, lets see if we get a follow thru next week.
Forex is not easy!
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