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What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

  • #1,141
  • Oct 14, 2020 10:23pm Oct 14, 2020 10:23pm
Quoting corrman
{quote} This is a massively click-baity thread title. It got a lot of attention for sure. Big money figures get big attention. Random it is NOT. It is all correlated and I get it now. It's not easy and it requires focus and determination and grit and technique and skill and guts and honesty and psychology and some capital and experience. There's no shortcuts and even if I'm good now, I'm not teaching anyone anything because I'm a trader, not a teacher.
It is random most of the time till it takes out targets, don’t kid yourself you know where price is going with any high certainty.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,142
  • Oct 14, 2020 10:42pm Oct 14, 2020 10:42pm
It seems random. I can't explain why I think it isn't without sounding like I know more than any one else, which I know is rather unattractive and I've seen that a lot so I know.... I just have an understanding of it now, like a big picture view and in that video there was some trending when the guy said that at the trending parts, it was not random. My new understanding is that large moves are made by large players, that's pretty much agreed on and the easy part of course. But then I see what he calls random, but I see it as distribution, profit taking, and what might be called manipulation, but I'd rather not call it that. What it often is doing is shorter term text book perfection pattern formations that fail, not because someone makes it that way, but because the big players just aren't there to cause the massive follow thru that those perfect patterns suggest. But somewhere else, on a correlated pair, there may be more follow thru which suggests that big money is moving some market almost all the time, but I don't trade markets I don't have enough experience trading, but I use that as info. But during the low volume times when there is no big market sessoin overlaps, yes, that's untradable junk, and could very well be random. So after all this, it's fine if you wanna call it random. I don't even know what my point was any more.
big money makes big moves and then hides during small money chasing.
  • #1,143
  • Oct 14, 2020 10:49pm Oct 14, 2020 10:49pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} It is random most of the time till it takes out targets, don’t kid yourself you know where price is going with any high certainty.
I'll challenge that idea. You say "random most of the time", so to some extent you're saying it's not random when your strategy has a set up happening, the other times it's random. Except those other "random" times is when someone else sees their set up, it just appears random to you.

Markets aren't random. You can see the same movements and structure from the monthly, to the weekly, to the daily. All the way down to 3sec and 1 second charts. When the price is at the 5 minute 200ema, its at the 15 minute 100ema, 30 minute 50ema, hourly 20, 4hr 8ema. And vice versa. It's just them happening all at once across different time intervals means you just don't know which one is going to hit at which time. But the movements in themselves aren't that random. It's why there has been one factor that is mostly unanimous, the hierarchy of time frames. A set up is more likely to be successful the higher up in the time frame you go. So not random, unpredictable, but I wouldn't say its random.
The best strategy is a profitable one.
  • #1,144
  • Oct 14, 2020 11:12pm Oct 14, 2020 11:12pm
Quoting AnRan
{quote} I'll challenge that idea. You say "random most of the time", so to some extent you're saying it's not random when your strategy has a set up happening, the other times it's random. Except those other "random" times is when someone else sees their set up, it just appears random to you. Markets aren't random. You can see the same movements and structure from the monthly, to the weekly, to the daily. All the way down to 3sec and 1 second charts. When the price is at the 5 minute 200ema, its at the 15 minute 100ema, 30 minute 50ema, hourly 20,...
Without going over old ground, visit a thread in the discussion forum from earlier this year called “Forex is Random”
Then we can expand on the subject if you wish.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,145
  • Oct 14, 2020 11:24pm Oct 14, 2020 11:24pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Without going over old ground, visit a thread in the discussion forum from earlier this year called “Forex is Random” Then we can expand on the subject if you wish.
I saw it before and I didn't agree with it. I've been doing this long enough and seen it enough times to know it isn't random. And I've given a fairly clear depiction of the difference of random and unpredictable. While both are similar they are not the same. Enough experience and it becomes more obvious. I can see we've agreed to disagree already.
The best strategy is a profitable one.
  • #1,146
  • Oct 14, 2020 11:33pm Oct 14, 2020 11:33pm
The larger time frame follow thru or failures have more space to trade the leg or wave that is the resolution of the pattern. The fact that we see the same patterns is what gives us any chance at all.
big money makes big moves and then hides during small money chasing.
  • #1,147
  • Oct 14, 2020 11:37pm Oct 14, 2020 11:37pm
Even if it is random, there are still patterns in it and they are identifiable and if large enough, then can be traded, add to that the correlation with other pairs and you have yourself a market that can be traded and I profit from it.

I'm done here, see ya all on EURUSD or my thread.
big money makes big moves and then hides during small money chasing.
  • #1,148
  • Oct 14, 2020 11:40pm Oct 14, 2020 11:40pm
Quoting AnRan
{quote} I saw it before and I didn't agree with it. I've been doing this long enough and seen it enough times to know it isn't random. And I've given a fairly clear depiction of the difference of random and unpredictable. While both are similar they are not the same. Enough experience and it becomes more obvious. I can see we've agreed to disagree already.
So if price is going to hit a 200 EMA tonight, how will it get there.
In one move, two pullbacks, three pullbacks. The action to get to a level is random and no one is sure.
So the action to achieve a target is random
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,149
  • Oct 14, 2020 11:44pm Oct 14, 2020 11:44pm
Quoting corrman
The larger time frame follow thru or failures have more space to trade the leg or wave that is the resolution of the pattern. The fact that we see the same patterns is what gives us any chance at all.
Sometimes, big players create patterns to entice traders to open up positions. Therefore is the pattern a result of herd behaviour or manipulation by big players.
More often then not, its manipulation to destroy your position. Thousands of traders actually learn how to trade of patterns, yet only a small number of those traders are profitable.
Why?
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,150
  • Oct 14, 2020 11:48pm Oct 14, 2020 11:48pm
Quoting corrman
Even if it is random, there are still patterns in it and they are identifiable and if large enough, then can be traded, add to that the correlation with other pairs and you have yourself a market that can be traded and I profit from it. I'm done here, see ya all on EURUSD or my thread.
Yes, I think you are correct there, small parts can be predicted. The rest however seems to be random unfortunately going by my data I use to trade with.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,151
  • Oct 14, 2020 11:59pm Oct 14, 2020 11:59pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Sometimes, big players create patterns to entice traders to open up positions. Therefore is the pattern a result of herd behaviour or manipulation by big players. More often then not, its manipulation to destroy your position. Thousands of traders actually learn how to trade of patterns, yet only a small number of those traders are profitable. Why?
Fear and greed get in the way of rational thought. Trading patterns suggests rules, yet rules require rational thought to follow a plan. It took me years to eliminate my dopamine reaction to fear and greed in order to be able to think clearly with out that and follow my plan to trade the patterns. Is it the same for them? I don't know. But do they also know that the smaller time frame patterns are likely the result of smaller players that have created the smaller time frame patterns and now are all sitting there awaiting follow thru that doesn't happen because they have all stopped trading now that that pattern exists? Then that pattern fails since they are all now not trading since they already did. Without the larger players entering, it doesn't matter what pattern exists. So it fails to follow thru. I used to be one of them, but now I anticipate those actions and wait for the result, see it, analyze the situation and then act on the reactions.

Not sure if I'm summarizing my trading so good, but there's something I see now that I didn't before. It's working for me consistently for the first time in my life.
big money makes big moves and then hides during small money chasing.
  • #1,152
  • Oct 15, 2020 12:08am Oct 15, 2020 12:08am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Sometimes, big players create patterns to entice traders to open up positions. Therefore is the pattern a result of herd behaviour or manipulation by big players. More often then not, its manipulation to destroy your position. Thousands of traders actually learn how to trade of patterns, yet only a small number of those traders are profitable. Why?
I used to agree with that. Now I think that the big money just goes in and makes a big wave and doesn't care much for what came before or what comes after. But that move, usually a spike or a steep, tight channel comes and goes. I think after the wave there are the medium size players who do clean up and fill smaller orders for that is the distribution and profit taking that may cause a test of the move the bigger players made. But not enough to retrace that move more than 80%, then the come back for more, unless they already did it so much that they really are exiting or reversing, in which case that big wave retraces 100% or greater of the most recent big money move wave. I'm rambling here, just attempting to sort out some pieces of what I use every day, every minute of my time watching the price action. I just no longer blame anyone for anything that's on the charts any more, sure there are stop runs all the time, but that's not the big players, only the medium ones looking to clean up the smaller ones. Shake outs are so good to find, it often adds additional evidence for me that the move is even more likely to move the way I'm analyzing it to move. Yes, they catch me too sometimes.
big money makes big moves and then hides during small money chasing.
  • #1,153
  • Oct 15, 2020 12:24am Oct 15, 2020 12:24am
random? markets? lol

after years of watching i can easily spot out when insiders, better informed or market makers are buying or selling. the markets are abolutely NOT random. children, wake up!
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #1,154
  • Oct 15, 2020 12:36am Oct 15, 2020 12:36am
Quoting RickM
{quote} So if price is going to hit a 200 EMA tonight, how will it get there. In one move, two pullbacks, three pullbacks. The action to get to a level is random and no one is sure. So the action to achieve a target is random
Your comment is actually a pretty good showing that you didn't understand my original post, or choose not to understand it.

Those "candle by candle" as you are trying to get to, go down TF's that make up that single candle bar and you'll see the same patterns and structure you see on that higher TF, but they happen within that 1 candle. It's like looking at something you think is really complex but when you open it up, it's actually not that crazy at all. It's like the Russian nesting dollars, the same thing but bigger, open it and its the same thing inside but smaller, and again and again.

But to answer your question, its not so much how it gets to the EMA, but that a pattern was evident showing it will. By definition that cant' be random. And as it does it'll follow the same price action and market structure that it usually does. Sure, sometimes it doesn't, but that is the unpredictability of it. Thats why you apply money management. But is that random? No.

And to be a bit more detailed. I shouldn't say markets, as stocks have a completely different trading dynamic than forex. So much so I was suprised to see that at firms I've visited, using indicators for stock trading is to an extent looked down upon. Not the same for futures or forex though. There is a predictability to it that can be traded.
The best strategy is a profitable one.
  • #1,155
  • Oct 15, 2020 12:42am Oct 15, 2020 12:42am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Yes, I think you are correct there, small parts can be predicted. The rest however seems to be random unfortunately going by my data I use to trade with.
I'm glad you said "i use to trade with", because that is exactly my point. What seems random to you is someone elses pot of gold, and when they don't have a set up, you're killing it cause you end up spoiled for choice on the charts.
The best strategy is a profitable one.
  • #1,156
  • Oct 15, 2020 12:47am Oct 15, 2020 12:47am
@Ceeso

The first question is how much are 300k for you personally? If your net worth is let's say 30 millions, losing 300k over a period of three years is not a big deal. Get over it and start over.

But if your net worth is 200K and you allowed yourself to lose 300k, you have a major self control problem and you will be probably better off doing something else.

Many are called to the markets but very few are chosen.

Good luck!
  • #1,157
  • Oct 15, 2020 2:35am Oct 15, 2020 2:35am
Market is random
Market is not random

So what? Why you spend your time talking about this? Who cares? The topic is about probability. If price hit +0.25% there are X% chance to hit 0.5%. That's all. Just add few rules and filters and you will get overall positive expectation. Or not. Try it, investigate it, code it, test it. But instead of this you all blah-blah-blahing about market is unpredictable, big players and other useless shit. Some one want to know how much 300k is. Other asking for proofs of loss. Etc, etc... CeeSo gave you a very good idea pick it up. Or next 10 years you will type the same words about market here on FF repeating yourself.

I'm about to create new thread about Zones/Level approach, but I think it also will be ruined. Those who want to test the approach and really help to make it better pm me I'll create telegram chat for that. But remember I want only enxerienced MT5 traders, who understand the market structure, have time to test the things and can give understandable feedback.
Observer effect
  • #1,158
  • Oct 15, 2020 4:37am Oct 15, 2020 4:37am
Quoting ryuryu
Market is random Market is not random So what? Why you spend your time talking about this? Who cares? The topic is about probability. If price hit +0.25% there are X% chance to hit 0.5%. That's all. Just add few rules and filters and you will get overall positive expectation. Or not. Try it, investigate it, code it, test it. But instead of this you all blah-blah-blahing about market is unpredictable, big players and other useless shit. Some one want to know how much 300k is. Other asking for proofs of loss. Etc, etc... CeeSo gave you a very good...
no, dont talk so much, DO it!
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #1,159
  • Oct 15, 2020 6:14pm Oct 15, 2020 6:14pm
Quoting AnRan
{quote} Your comment is actually a pretty good showing that you didn't understand my original post, or choose not to understand it. Those "candle by candle" as you are trying to get to, go down TF's that make up that single candle bar and you'll see the same patterns and structure you see on that higher TF, but they happen within that 1 candle. It's like looking at something you think is really complex but when you open it up, it's actually not that crazy at all. It's like the Russian nesting dollars, the same thing but bigger, open it and its the...
Unpredictability is random, thanks for confirming my point.
I am not talking about your targets, just the random and erratic movement to get there which may be this afternoon or tomorrow or even next week.
Or you would be making 100% a month which of course isn’t random, just impossible over a long time period.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,160
  • Oct 15, 2020 8:26pm Oct 15, 2020 8:26pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Unpredictability is random, thanks for confirming my point. I am not talking about your targets, just the random and erratic movement to get there which may be this afternoon or tomorrow or even next week. Or you would be making 100% a month which of course isn’t random, just impossible over a long time period.
Um...you ever take a statistics class?

Random and unpredictable are similar but not the same. Something that is random you can't create a strategy for. Hurricanes are unpredictable, meteorologist lay out several paths it could move, but it's not random that it just takes a left turn, or just splits apart over the ocean. It chooses one. And they've become better and better at forecasting the right one. That's the same for trading. It's not random, which path is it gonna take. The very fact that you have a strategy or set up means it's not random, it's as simple as that.

"Random" comes from the things you can't expect, elections or earthquakes. But even then they maintain a technical side to them, moving to safe areas until it can choose which direction it'll move and start all over again.
The best strategy is a profitable one.
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