Use Weekly Pivots To Predict Market Direction | Forex Factory

Options

Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Use of PP,R1 and S1 pivots 7 replies

Standard Pivots and Fibonnaci Pivots? 9 replies

Consumer Price Index - Can you predict the direction? 66 replies

The pivots I use. 0 replies

Best use of pivots?????????? 5 replies

Attachments: Use Weekly Pivots To Predict Market Direction
Exit Attachments

Use Weekly Pivots To Predict Market Direction

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 11, 2020 5:02am Oct 11, 2020 5:02am
Hey Team,

I've been spending a crazy amount of time mastering pivot points and a couple of weeks ago I shared a Pivot Points Trading Strategy (thread here).

The concept that PRICE IS ATTRACTED TO FAIR VALUE (the pivot) fascinates me and I'm getting fairly consistent identifying trade setups around this.

In the first part of this weeks video, I share 3 TRADE SETUPS THE USING WEEKLY PIVOT. I use trendlines/support and resistance breaks for entry confirmation. The second part of the video is me SHOWING THE OUTCOME of the 3 trades.

I walk you through my thought process and more importantly WAS MY ANALYSIS RIGHT? Find out in the video!

Inserted Video


I will be share more videos/screenshots of setups to see how they plan out. Feel free to share your insights as well. The logic will work on daily and monthly pivots.
Never stop investing. Never stop improving. Never stop doing something new
  • #2
  • Oct 12, 2020 2:54pm Oct 12, 2020 2:54pm
Here is another example of the EURJPY today. I missed this trade as the setup happened while I was asleep!

The pivot indicator I'm using is one that I've created and testing, which will be released soon.

BEFORE

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY H1 BEFORE.PNG Size: 42 KB


AFTER

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY H1 AFTER.PNG Size: 59 KB
Never stop investing. Never stop improving. Never stop doing something new
  • #3
  • Oct 12, 2020 3:42pm Oct 12, 2020 3:42pm
What is the basic premise?

Trade towards the weekly pivot?

Seems pretty basic, where does the market direction prediction fit in, or is tht it?

And if price opens at the pivot, no trade for that week?

Thanks
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #4
  • Oct 12, 2020 4:33pm Oct 12, 2020 4:33pm
Guys

I just did a quick scan on the GBPUSD for the past 12 months.

There was not a losing month if you simply opened a trade at the start of the week in the direction of the weekly pivot. For a few weeks during the past year price was close to the weekly pivot so not a lot of pips to be gained. However, there were also weeks where the pip gain was significant.

I am going to give this simple approach a closer look across a number of pairs.

Thanks
  • #5
  • Oct 12, 2020 5:46pm Oct 12, 2020 5:46pm
Quoting Erebus
What is the basic premise? Trade towards the weekly pivot? Seems pretty basic, where does the market direction prediction fit in, or is tht it? And if price opens at the pivot, no trade for that week? Thanks
I don't think you will get any response.
This thread will be exactly as the latest ones opened by thread starter.
BTW there is already a thread about weekly pivot that is running for years
  • #6
  • Oct 12, 2020 6:04pm Oct 12, 2020 6:04pm
Quoting pakeha
Guys I just did a quick scan on the GBPUSD for the past 12 months. There was not a losing month if you simply opened a trade at the start of the week in the direction of the weekly pivot. For a few weeks during the past year price was close to the weekly pivot so not a lot of pips to be gained. However, there were also weeks where the pip gain was significant. I am going to give this simple approach a closer look across a number of pairs. Thanks
Quick scan meaning, only visual? This is strictly from the weekly open to the pivot right?

Why are you saying "not a losing month"? Wouldn't it be easier to mention number of losing weeks vs number of winning weeks?

Did you record anything, eg. number of pips gained, maximum adverse movement?

Do you have 1.29802 as this week's pivot? How do you think it will go this week?

Thanks for sharing

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-10-13_8-38-27.jpg Size: 363 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-10-13_8-38-27.jpg Size: 363 KB
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #7
  • Oct 12, 2020 6:12pm Oct 12, 2020 6:12pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} I don't think you will get any response. This thread will be exactly as the latest ones opened by thread starter. BTW there is already a thread about weekly pivot that is running for years
Yes, I know all about Davits Pivots, they trade different than the concept presented here; they wait for huge moves away from the pivot, enter and hope for a return to the pivot. I got banned because I questioned the need for so many small entries when 1 larger position would do the same thing; also, I didn't participate in the weekly, mandatory back slapping and high fiving celebrations they did fail a few times when they didn't recognize the JPY was on a mission to infinity and beyond

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #8
  • Oct 12, 2020 7:34pm Oct 12, 2020 7:34pm
the problem with contrarian systems is the maximum adverse reaction. ie when it goes wrong, it goes really wrong.
  • #9
  • Oct 12, 2020 10:03pm Oct 12, 2020 10:03pm
Quoting jnetfx
the problem with contrarian systems is the maximum adverse reaction. ie when it goes wrong, it goes really wrong.
Can you quantify that statement a lot more please?

Unless one trades both without stop loss, and risk management, how can it go really wrong?

I think what would be obvious, it's not the system or method that is wrong, it the way you are trading.

Answer me this Einstein, if you put a stop loss on every trade, with the position size correct so that the loss was always 1 R or 1 Risk Unit, what is the maximum average loss per trade?

When or how would the trade go really wrong? If you can post an example of how you trade, that would be great

Here are 2 charts of how the EURJPY could have been traded, the first with a 1 to1 Risk Reward Ratio and the 2nd with a 2 to 1 Risk Reward Ratio.

In both cases, if price went to the Stop Loss, the loss would be the same, and certainly not "really wrong".

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-10-13_12-47-40.jpg Size: 340 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-10-13_12-51-04.jpg Size: 335 KB

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #10
  • Oct 12, 2020 10:43pm Oct 12, 2020 10:43pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Quick scan meaning, only visual? This is strictly from the weekly open to the pivot right? Why are you saying "not a losing month"? Wouldn't it be easier to mention number of losing weeks vs number of winning weeks? Did you record anything, eg. number of pips gained, maximum adverse movement? Do you have 1.29802 as this week's pivot? How do you think it will go this week? Thanks for sharing {image} {image}
Erebus

I investigated this further.

I found that the Fxssi PivotPoints All-In-One indicator that Zoheb01 linked us to in post #1 does not display the historical weekly pivot points correctly. It applies the historical pivots to the wrong week (i.e. the week previous to where it should be applied). I compared the indicator to a number of other weekly pivot point indicators, plus I did some manual pivot point calculations to confirm this error.

As a result, I need to relook at these charts with a valid weekly pivot points indicator.
  • #11
  • Oct 12, 2020 10:44pm Oct 12, 2020 10:44pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Yes, I know all about Davits Pivots, they trade different than the concept presented here; they wait for huge moves away from the pivot, enter and hope for a return to the pivot. I got banned because I questioned the need for so many small entries when 1 larger position would do the same thing; also, I didn't participate in the weekly, mandatory back slapping and high fiving celebrations they did fail a few times when they didn't recognize the JPY was on a mission to infinity and beyond ...

That's a simple concept... glorified to a different level.
Probably the most well marketed thread on FF. Congrats to the thread starter...
  • #12
  • Oct 12, 2020 11:44pm Oct 12, 2020 11:44pm
I guess my point is similar to what I thought you were trying to point out with Davit Pivots thread, in terms of EurJpy going to infinity and beyond. Because essentially that system is a contrarian system, where price must trend away from the weekly pivot to at least the R/S 68 level, before taking a counter trend position, toward the weekly pivot. So, in the situation with EurJpy things went pretty badly. And athough i agree with your logic about SL, and how that fits into the argument that you cant have anything go really badly with a SL, my point would be that in my experience you cant have a contrarian system that has a RR of 1:1 or 1:2 that also has a high enough win rate to be profitable. Where as, if you are trading with the trend, I think it is much easier to get those RR levels, aswell as win rates that mean you are ultimately profitable.
  • #13
  • Oct 13, 2020 3:15am Oct 13, 2020 3:15am
price just does what it normally does except everyone interprets it differently
  • #14
  • Oct 13, 2020 3:21am Oct 13, 2020 3:21am
Quoting jnetfx
I guess my point is similar to what I thought you were trying to point out with Davit Pivots thread, in terms of EurJpy going to infinity and beyond. Because essentially that system is a contrarian system, where price must trend away from the weekly pivot to at least the R/S 68 level, before taking a counter trend position, toward the weekly pivot. So, in the situation with EurJpy things went pretty badly. And although I agree with your logic about SL, and how that fits into the argument that you cant have anything go really badly with a SL, my...
Absolutely, agree, I got your point must have a good R:R:R

I do trend trade, my latest efforts are to trade GOLD, follow the usual mantras, cut losers quick, let winners run.

How I do that is, no set take profit, use a trailing stop to get out shoot for infinity with that R:R:R

But I have noticed so many times, with Forex pairs at least, when the Daily candle closes at 5 pm New York, price may go a bit higher but then reverse the previous move.

That leaves me there thinking about stuff I read about, the closing price is very important, really? Tell me why...

All the best
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #15
  • Edited 9:33am Oct 13, 2020 7:45am | Edited 9:33am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Yes, I know all about Davits Pivots, they trade different than the concept presented here; they wait for huge moves away from the pivot, enter and hope for a return to the pivot. I got banned because I questioned the need for so many small entries when 1 larger position would do the same thing; also, I didn't participate in the weekly, mandatory back slapping and high fiving celebrations they did fail a few times when they didn't recognize the JPY was on a mission to infinity and beyond ...
Davits Pivots ARE NOT Davits Pivots... someone stole them off Wyatt's Pivots....
Have a close look.....(overlap them)
High five guys!!!
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 WyattsPivots_erikmod.ex4   76 KB | 575 downloads
Those who don't believe in magic will never find it
  • #16
  • Oct 13, 2020 11:29pm Oct 13, 2020 11:29pm
Quoting zoheb01
The concept that PRICE IS ATTRACTED TO FAIR VALUE (the pivot) fascinates me and I'm getting fairly consistent identifying trade setups around this.
What you really mean - so it seems to me - is the very old concept of "mean reversion".
The pivot is only one way of getting an idea where that point may be.
  • #17
  • Oct 18, 2020 5:30am Oct 18, 2020 5:30am
Hey Guys,

As promised above, you can now download my version of the popular TradingView indicator - Pivot Points Standard.

Some of the features with this indicator:

1) Choose between Daily, Weekly and Monthly pivots
2) Resistance (R1-R3) and Support (S1-S3) Included
3) Look back option - shows historic pivot levels

I hope you guys find it useful

Tutorial Video

Inserted Video


Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 OGT Pivot Points Indicator v1.0.ex4   27 KB | 504 downloads
Never stop investing. Never stop improving. Never stop doing something new
  • #18
  • Last Post: Jan 3, 2021 5:23am Jan 3, 2021 5:23am
Hey Team,

I wanted to let you know that OGT Pivot Points Indicator v1.1 has been released today.

Below you will the tutorial video which goes through the latest features.

1. Push, Email, Desktop Alerts - Never miss a signal with customisable alerts on all pivot levels
2. New Pivot Time Frame Levels - This is something new that I've never seen on any pivot point indicator and will give you a trading edge!

Inserted Video


Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 OGT Pivot Points Indicator v1.1.ex4   44 KB | 456 downloads
Never stop investing. Never stop improving. Never stop doing something new
0 traders viewing now