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Trading Institutional Order Flow

  • #8,941
  • Edited Oct 11, 2020 6:33am Oct 10, 2020 9:07am | Edited Oct 11, 2020 6:33am
Hey everyone, I'm new to this thread.
I'm currently working on the money management excel spreadsheet. I wonder for how many trades should I calculate( Win rate ratio) for supply and demand strategy, and in your experience what is the win percentage of this strategy.

Do you count Break even trades into your calculation for Win rate ratio?
Win rate = Total wins / Total trades
Total wins = 12
Total losses = 5
Total break-even = 8
Total trades = 17 ( wins + losses)
Win rate = 12/17
Or
Total trades = 25 ( wins+losses+ break evens)
Win rate = 12/ 25

Which one is correct?
I'm a little confused about this calculation.
  • #8,942
  • Oct 11, 2020 4:34am Oct 11, 2020 4:34am
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello Jaapi Welcome to T.I.O.F Thanks for sharing your chart on the AUDCAD If i may, i think the reason you may be having challenges identifying any good quality zones is because of the current state this chart is in. I have attached some comments on the charts below. The summary of it is that AUDCAD is currently in a state of balance, where the pressure of supply is equalling the effort of demand. Zones will be much clearer in markets where these two forces are in a state of imbalance, where one side is outdoing the other. best wishes{image}...
great explanation @ AKT
  • #8,943
  • Oct 11, 2020 4:42am Oct 11, 2020 4:42am
https://www.tradingview.com/x/uSpUfHKj/
  • #8,944
  • Oct 11, 2020 12:48pm Oct 11, 2020 12:48pm
Quoting haluk
{quote} Hello Traders , For GBPNZD , I was basically looking to join buyers from daily levels and/or waiting for creation of h4 demands. Same time , selling from h4 suplies above with confirmation, due to visible good profit margin . I had a chance to short it two times. Missed the first one and it was a bit difficult. But the second one worked well . Now we have h4 and daily demand levels below to join buyers for the coming days , Happy trades All, H. {image}
Hello traders ,

GBPNZD, a long rally took placed as expected last week.
New daily and h4 demands can all be traded by confirmations.
To short this pair , we need to see daily trend to turn first .

Happy trades , Best ,
Haluk .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzdweek42.png Size: 74 KB
  • #8,945
  • Oct 11, 2020 10:25pm Oct 11, 2020 10:25pm
Hello Trader

I try SAD for XAUUSD, please corection if I wrong
Regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 125 KB
  • #8,946
  • Oct 13, 2020 5:54am Oct 13, 2020 5:54am
update XAUUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 106 KB
  • #8,947
  • Oct 13, 2020 5:55am Oct 13, 2020 5:55am
Quoting Skf
{quote} Hi Jaapi - I try to use the zones that have short consolidations and leave the zones sharply. I'm definitely not the expert, but this is how i judge them. Just my opinion as zones form in multiple timeframes, makes it more confusing. I try to keep it simple and use Daily, H4 and H1 zones in tandem For example do a sell in a daily supply zone when H1 and H4 also form a supply..... I like the last purple, and yellow zones on your chart. The purple one seems to be holding now. Price has left those zones with momentum. I always have a difficult...
Nice, Sometimes I am also not sure which zone to trade in case there are some stacked. I am focussing on 1H zones which are created into daily levels in combination with a broken momentum line. this way of confirmation entry feels safe.
  • #8,948
  • Oct 13, 2020 5:57am Oct 13, 2020 5:57am
Quoting Skf
Jaapi, I have audcad marked similiar to you. Only difference is I feel the top zones are more in the weekly than daily. Remember I am not an expert. Just because our charts are different doesn't mean one is correct and the other is not. Opinions only. I am trying to learn too, so this is only my interpretations {image}
Hi SKF, it is nice to see that both our charts are different but I think I can see what you did on yours!
  • #8,949
  • Oct 13, 2020 6:02am Oct 13, 2020 6:02am
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello Jaapi Welcome to T.I.O.F Thanks for sharing your chart on the AUDCAD If i may, i think the reason you may be having challenges identifying any good quality zones is because of the current state this chart is in. I have attached some comments on the charts below. The summary of it is that AUDCAD is currently in a state of balance, where the pressure of supply is equalling the effort of demand. Zones will be much clearer in markets where these two forces are in a state of imbalance, where one side is outdoing the other. best wishes{image}...
Hi Akt,

Thank you for welcoming.

So we are currently in a bigger picture sideways move now. We should then wait until new daily zones are created which also break current sideways action?

Greetings
  • #8,950
  • Oct 13, 2020 7:51am Oct 13, 2020 7:51am
Great entry - terrible trade management

Bought AUDJPY in a spot where it looked to me to be a liquidity run. Larger trends were up. I got lucky and got a near perfect entry however, I trailed my stop too early and too soon......only about +10 pips....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy2.png Size: 83 KB
  • #8,951
  • Oct 13, 2020 8:02am Oct 13, 2020 8:02am
Quoting Jaapi
{quote} Nice, Sometimes I am also not sure which zone to trade in case there are some stacked. I am focussing on 1H zones which are created into daily levels in combination with a broken momentum line. this way of confirmation entry feels safe.
Hi Jaapi,

I'm also trying to use the smaller zones inside the larger ones. It seems to work much better for me. The above AUDJPY is an example as the downward move on short timeframes came into the bounces off larger Month, week, and daily demand zones (or at least support/resistance.

I'm not sure if it is part of the strategy, but I also like looking for the "liquidity" grab before the move in the opposite direction (like in the example above)
  • #8,952
  • Oct 13, 2020 9:31am Oct 13, 2020 9:31am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy buy.png Size: 59 KB

GBPJPY buy
  • #8,953
  • Oct 13, 2020 11:16am Oct 13, 2020 11:16am
Outcome - almost hit my 2/1 of 20 pips but just missed it by less than the spread, I decided to take 15 pips after this as this was a anti-trend trade.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy buy2.png Size: 37 KB
  • #8,954
  • Oct 14, 2020 8:32am Oct 14, 2020 8:32am
Quoting Skf
{quote} Hi Jaapi, I'm also trying to use the smaller zones inside the larger ones. It seems to work much better for me. The above AUDJPY is an example as the downward move on short timeframes came into the bounces off larger Month, week, and daily demand zones (or at least support/resistance. I'm not sure if it is part of the strategy, but I also like looking for the "liquidity" grab before the move in the opposite direction (like in the example above)
Hi,

I am not so sure what you mean by "liquidity grab". DId you just buy the momentum up?
  • #8,955
  • Oct 14, 2020 8:50am Oct 14, 2020 8:50am
Hi all,

I want to share a trade I took on CADJPY. I think the entry was very nice. We were in a daily supply level, momentum line was broken and a 1H supply zone was created.

However, the take profit level is not worked out well yet. Currently I still did not set a target because I am in doubt where to take profit. Should I:
- take profit somewhere near the opposite daily demand level?
- take profit somewhere near the opposite hourly demand level?



What do you guys recommend? Or Could someone maybe guide me through the specific set of rules regarding take profit levels?

Of course any other advice regarding this trade is more than welcome

Best wishes
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot4.png Size: 131 KB
  • #8,956
  • Oct 14, 2020 10:27am Oct 14, 2020 10:27am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd sell.png Size: 66 KB
GBPUSD sell using H4 and H1 zones
  • #8,957
  • Edited 11:58am Oct 14, 2020 10:34am | Edited 11:58am
Quoting Jaapi
Hi all, I want to share a trade I took on CADJPY. I think the entry was very nice. We were in a daily supply level, momentum line was broken and a 1H supply zone was created. However, the take profit level is not worked out well yet. Currently I still did not set a target because I am in doubt where to take profit. Should I: - take profit somewhere near the opposite daily demand level? - take profit somewhere near the opposite hourly demand level? What do you guys recommend? Or Could someone maybe guide me through the specific set of rules regarding...
Hi Jaapi - Nice trade! this question/situation is always most difficult for me too. I would suggest a Reward to risk rule for example if use 30 pip stop, go for TP of 60 or more.

Make judgements on support/resistance or supply demand levels. in between 78 and 79 to me is tough area to get by whether it is demand or not.

You can also take some profits at what you determine as demand/support-resistance levels and let runner go ? Whatever you decide, you should set some rules.

Hindsight is always easy!
  • #8,958
  • Oct 14, 2020 10:38am Oct 14, 2020 10:38am
Quoting Jaapi
{quote} Hi, I am not so sure what you mean by "liquidity grab". DId you just buy the momentum up?
liquidity grab is when smart money forces price above a level or below and then turns the other way. It traps traders, Sometimes called a buy-to-sell/sell to buy, or institutional candle.

looks like this
Attached Image
  • #8,959
  • Oct 14, 2020 10:56am Oct 14, 2020 10:56am
Missed this o[[ortunity on GBPJPY - I thought it would get higher and missed it, it sold off at the "M" pattern. Nice buy this morning off support, but before I started trading

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: missed GBPJPY.png Size: 105 KB
  • #8,960
  • Oct 14, 2020 11:34am Oct 14, 2020 11:34am
Liquidity grab or stop run example

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: stoprun.png Size: 37 KB
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