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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #62,741
  • Oct 7, 2020 5:36am Oct 7, 2020 5:36am
Ok.
At end of 12th sequence, cumulative position count of fibo series is only 10% of martingale series. In an expansion following the sequence in order, fibo book cost would be 60% from current price, martingale book cost will only be 50%. Difference 10% in book cost but martingale having 10x the number of position count. Martingale book becomes very sensitive and get killed by small moves.

So most stable cost impliment is fibo series because position count is tolerable and book cost distance is safety margin for trend change.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #62,742
  • Edited 5:52am Oct 7, 2020 5:40am | Edited 5:52am
Quoting Jacque
Ok. At end of 12th sequence, cumulative position count of fibo series is only 10% of martingale series. In an expansion following the sequence in order, fibo book cost would be 60% from current price, martingale book cost will only be 50%. Difference 10% in book cost but martingale having 10x the number of position count. Martingale book becomes very sensitive and get killed by small moves. So most stable cost impliment is fibo series because position count is tolerable and book cost distance is safety margin for trend change.
Yes noted. You major maths?
You are correct in the character of the skew.
Most stable.

That is true for defence strategy.
In an attack stretegy, it bevomes achelles heel. And martingale is lame.


Regards
  • #62,743
  • Oct 7, 2020 5:47am Oct 7, 2020 5:47am
I am engineer by training
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #62,744
  • Oct 7, 2020 5:50am Oct 7, 2020 5:50am
Quoting Jacque
I am engineer by training
Ahhhhh clever. Respects.


Regards
  • #62,745
  • Oct 7, 2020 5:54am Oct 7, 2020 5:54am
Quoting fti
{quote} Ahhhhh clever. Regards
I am humbled. There are many more clever out there not show up. I remb Baifu.

Need help, I not understand the attack strategy achelles hill and maneuver yet.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #62,746
  • Oct 7, 2020 6:24am Oct 7, 2020 6:24am
Quoting fti
Ok since there is only 2 of you who are seriously climbing your learning curve. (...)
There is at least one more.. a silent and slow learner, too stupid to open mouth, sorry, lol...
  • #62,747
  • Edited 7:08am Oct 7, 2020 6:46am | Edited 7:08am
Quoting Jairo
{quote} There is at least one more.. a silent and slow learner, too stupid to open mouth, sorry, lol...

Na, not stupid.
Stupid never admits stupid.
Need be clever recognise stupid.
Mostly cautious, maybe.

Some want watch & learn from others mistakes.
Some want learn from others successes.
Different folks , different strokes.

Is ok keep music coming is acceptable.
If i not retarded and wanting leave these behind for development.also i would be same not open my mouth.

Rrgards

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Hahahaha WHO
whowho whowho.
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  • #62,748
  • Edited 7:28am Oct 7, 2020 7:15am | Edited 7:28am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} I am humbled. There are many more clever out there not show up. I remb Baifu. Need help, I not understand the attack strategy achelles hill and maneuver yet.
Hahahaha coming soon.
Maybe after christmas, if i am still not kicking the bucket.
Its not difficult stuff, if humble and nimble.
Just some fine tuning for execellence.
For those not lazy. Its slready in the thread.time travel back necesssry.

Regards

h
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  • #62,749
  • Edited 7:57am Oct 7, 2020 7:33am | Edited 7:57am
Quoting Jacque
I am engineer by training
Hahahaha reminds me of my sister hubby.
Made a whole population drink each other,'s urine and washing water. Dare not even mention until now thats he,s retarded.
Hahahaha
Now at least wise up, pump it back into reserviour. Last time is piped direct. Thanks to olivier lamb..Hahahaha. Fresh from the oven.
Some sky juice is very interesting.
I stll remember 1 time camping out with myboys. They cooked very nice azuki beans for supper. Before taps. We saw lots stuff floating downstream in our water source. Never did surved azuki neans again afterwards.
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  • #62,750
  • Oct 7, 2020 9:14am Oct 7, 2020 9:14am
In God's grace, wish you well to achieve your 120yrs goal, and in happiness and relaxation
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #62,751
  • Edited 11:13am Oct 7, 2020 9:31am | Edited 11:13am
Quoting Jacque
In God's grace, wish you well to achieve your 120yrs goal, and in happiness and relaxation
thank u belly much.
I go rest already.
Regards

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Ahhhh found, the rabbit fucking problem.
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  • #62,752
  • Edited 9:00pm Oct 7, 2020 8:49pm | Edited 9:00pm
Quoting fti
{quote} Let this be very clear in your mindset. 1. We trade price. And we not have control of what the hack she wants to do. 2. We trade volitility. And we not have control of what the hack she wants to do. 3. We trade on our available time zones. And unless we was time travellers, we no vontrol over time. Only these peeps seems able travel time, and only backwards.

my apologies for the late reply.

thank you for the lesson.
I didnt mean for my post to sound so rigid either with the fibo sequence. I think of the fibo sequence as an easy way to calculate position size without having to do too much maths, or to do it quickly on the fly, sometimes adding a little more size if needed. I understand it needs to be adjusted based on volatility... as it's a guideline because it is most stable and cost effective progression .

Quote
Most stable cost impliment is a tool.
Confusion of tools and strategies.
Is a tool a strategy?

tools aren't strategies... The strategy is in how you use the tool and the situation that you are using it for.

Quote
The gradient of curve aka sigma, is also out of our control. It market maker stools. But there is curve characteristics due to the dtructure of the markets

not sure I understand ... but would like to know more


thank you sir
  • #62,753
  • Edited 5:49am Oct 8, 2020 4:48am | Edited 5:49am
Quoting dbrown101
{quote} not sure I understand ... but would like to know more thank you sir

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post13196035

Market maker/stockist(merchant banking) pricing manipulation tools. I call em stools.
Hahahahaha used to be my expertise.long long ago. Expert scalping.

Eeeer let me guess. Drowning elephants?
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Ohh rock and roll.
Noted.
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  • #62,754
  • Edited 6:20am Oct 8, 2020 5:55am | Edited 6:20am
Ai ya everybody already knows .
Every thing in communist china soil belongs to the communidt party.
Whats your problem?
Everything in britain need conform to british rules.

Csrzy minds.
Everything in europe answers to germany.
Whats the new stuff?
Everything in taione answers to qing dynasty?
Evrryone in your fsmily answers to your mother. Father is only tadpole farmer?

‘Clear evidence of collusion’ between Huawei and Chinese Communist Party – UK Parliament report https://www.rt.com/news/502927-uk-pa...huawei-report/

This evil world of warloads.
My warloard is different ftom yours. Ee use boom these days. Anyone no comply we send our ninjas vx em.

No be stupid. Ninjas no wear black anymore.
They wear smiles and carry purse.

Same song different key.
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  • #62,755
  • Edited 6:47am Oct 8, 2020 6:34am | Edited 6:47am
Eeeeer noted
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  • #62,756
  • Oct 8, 2020 6:57am Oct 8, 2020 6:57am
Hahahaha
Hahahaha
Anyone we know?
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  • #62,757
  • Oct 8, 2020 7:28am Oct 8, 2020 7:28am
Quoting fti
{quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post13196035 Market maker/stockist(merchant banking) pricing manipulation tools. I call em stools. Hahahahaha used to be my expertise.long long ago. Expert scalping. Eeeer let me guess. Drowning elephants? {image} Ohh rock and roll. Noted. {image}

thank you again. Must've missed that post

Quote
This becsuse market always built too much premium into price.

what do you mean by this? is this option premium?

My apologies.. just trying to fill in the gaps so I can understand... I might be a slow learner... or un-informed

I think I finally figured out what you meant in this conversation we had ----->https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post13015415
and that was months ago haha....about market makers stools.
  • #62,758
  • Oct 8, 2020 8:42am Oct 8, 2020 8:42am
Quoting fti
Ok since there is only 2 of you who are seriously climbing your learning curve. I am going thru your 2 post very seriously. I don't think you 2 are doing anything wrong but i detected dome wrinkles that maybe impeeding your progress. Esp dbrown 101, i need help you thinking, s little, u thinking seems tripping you progress. As i am low energy , i am being bery careful in reconstructing your mo to see where it may be weak and how i may strengthen your strategic trade maneouverings. I give this fast posting to let you 2 know , i am actively reconstructing...
2+1+... thank you FTI...for imparting knowledge, experience and insights...
  • #62,759
  • Edited 1:03pm Oct 8, 2020 12:24pm | Edited 1:03pm
Quoting dbrown101
{quote} thank you again. Must've missed that post {quote} what do you mean by this? is this option premium? .
No .
Price premium.
The real value of a compsny is its NTA( net tangable Asset value.
This the real worth of a company.
The listed price of companies, the m&a sharks adds
Earning capacity value, and all sorts premium to its price.

So now that they not profitable no one adds risk of bsnkrupty to the prices.

Understand?

When you buy any company shares you are lending money to company as working capital.
Does your loan yields any interest?
Some companys pays divident.
Others only give you shit load about their robust.
So far i not seen any company AAAA+ credit rating. AAA+ also no have.
So what the fish you loan money to?
There no real valuation of company except NTA.
Other premium they add. Mostly bullshit.
If have many vigina adds even more premium? They think every stock investor is a sucker.lots tricks pile up bullshit premium.
Check out any IPO. The markemakers makes sure listor becomes millioniars. Why you think they pay merchants banks so much fees for.
I also want list my dog food.
It has so many views and loads members.i mudt become billionaire.
Whem u hsve $$$$$ everyone want f u.
Any auditors here? Retarded ones?

Regards

And fuck the spelling checker.
Everytime i ttpe it fucjd it up.

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By the way stock options premiums , is paying for time watch peeps gets screwed in marketplace. Is highest level public porn.
Time is cheap, so we add all sorts greeks .

Ok banking secret.
I lend you 1 mio at 12% interest.
You depodit the money in my bank.
I pay you 2% interest.
This is banking.understand?
Stock peeps trying emulate and add 2% brokerage fees.

We washed it. Now its new and virgin oil.
Lately some one doing dirty laundry in banks also. How come bosses no gets share.fines.
After pay fines, good boy, as you were.
Don,t let me catch you again. Gogogo.
  • #62,760
  • Oct 8, 2020 1:03pm Oct 8, 2020 1:03pm
Quoting fti
{quote} No . Price premium. The real value of a compsny is its NTA( net tangable Asset value. This the real worth of a company. The listed price of companies, the m&a sharks adds Earning capacity value, and all sorts premium to its price. So now that they not profitable no one adds risk of bsnkrupty to the prices. Understand? When you buy any company shares you are lending money to company as working capital. Does your loan yields any interest? Some companys pays divident. Others only give you shit load about their robust. So far i not seen any...

I think I understand. I have been reading "The intelligent invester" by Benjamin Graham that talks about value investing and how a companies real value, as you said, is based on the net tangible asset value. The market adds value on to that based on things like future earnings potential etc... so that added value is the premiums?
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