Disliked{quote} Hi anilamil, I posted an EA a few posts ago, you can find it here: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post13147846 If you try it, please share your results, thanks.Ignored
- #1,763
- Edited 7:57am Oct 8, 2020 4:18am | Edited 7:57am
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Trader | 3,886 Posts
Hi Guys. I am new to the forum and also Forex (~4 month in). My goal is to write EAs for auto trading (Also new to MQL4 and PineScript too!)
Anyway I came across this thread and found that my current strategy is pretty similar to the Magic 100 (mine is more picky, only on EURUSD m15, ~53% win rate but less trades). So I just think might as well backtest the Magic 100 on EURUSD H1 as the most original form.
I did add one more confirmation for trending market, which is a 20EMA and to enter a trade the 20EMA must be also trending down or up (20EMA[1] > or < 20EMA) in the last 3 hours. It does help preventing entries at trend exhaustion and approaching reversal.
Just for comparison, I also backtested another version with StopLoss buffer, which was 1/3 current ATR, one that I use often in testing new strategies (for no reason, just randomly pick the 1/3 multiplier)
I backtested EURUSD H1 from Jun 2020 to 6 Oct, as some "trades" on 7 are not closed yet.
I also included spread of 0.9pips, as many brokers offer <=0.9pips unless near market open/close. So a 2R win is really winning 2x the risk.
Here are the results.
1. No SL performed better than having a SL. The win rate actually went up by 1-6%
2. 2R (win rate 39%) performed better than 1.5R (win rate 42%).
3. The return for 2R/noSL combination gave a staggering 45%/4mth return (compounded by fixed % risk. Or 23% if fixed $ risk)
For some unknown reason, Jun 2020 was a very bad month for Magic 100. The drawdown was >15% with 14 losses in a row!! Anyone has idea what happened? Or is this strategy not profitable in a long run? Maybe an additional indicator to avoid this situation? Any suggestions on further backtesting are welcome
Enjoy
Update 8/10
** Sadly I would say the Magic 100 only works well in these 3 months, the basic Magic 100 strategy is not consistent.
With help of TradingView script the backtest can be very quick even manually. Backtested last 12 month on EURUSD H1.
Result was miserable... A DD of 50%. Even Jun-Sep2020 was very profitable, overall still a loss after 12 months
==== 12 Months (Oct2019-Sep2020) ====
So sad to see this.
==== Jun to Sep 2020 ====
Anyway I came across this thread and found that my current strategy is pretty similar to the Magic 100 (mine is more picky, only on EURUSD m15, ~53% win rate but less trades). So I just think might as well backtest the Magic 100 on EURUSD H1 as the most original form.
I did add one more confirmation for trending market, which is a 20EMA and to enter a trade the 20EMA must be also trending down or up (20EMA[1] > or < 20EMA) in the last 3 hours. It does help preventing entries at trend exhaustion and approaching reversal.
Just for comparison, I also backtested another version with StopLoss buffer, which was 1/3 current ATR, one that I use often in testing new strategies (for no reason, just randomly pick the 1/3 multiplier)
I backtested EURUSD H1 from Jun 2020 to 6 Oct, as some "trades" on 7 are not closed yet.
I also included spread of 0.9pips, as many brokers offer <=0.9pips unless near market open/close. So a 2R win is really winning 2x the risk.
Here are the results.
1. No SL performed better than having a SL. The win rate actually went up by 1-6%
2. 2R (win rate 39%) performed better than 1.5R (win rate 42%).
3. The return for 2R/noSL combination gave a staggering 45%/4mth return (compounded by fixed % risk. Or 23% if fixed $ risk)
For some unknown reason, Jun 2020 was a very bad month for Magic 100. The drawdown was >15% with 14 losses in a row!! Anyone has idea what happened? Or is this strategy not profitable in a long run? Maybe an additional indicator to avoid this situation? Any suggestions on further backtesting are welcome
Enjoy
Update 8/10
** Sadly I would say the Magic 100 only works well in these 3 months, the basic Magic 100 strategy is not consistent.
With help of TradingView script the backtest can be very quick even manually. Backtested last 12 month on EURUSD H1.
Result was miserable... A DD of 50%. Even Jun-Sep2020 was very profitable, overall still a loss after 12 months
==== 12 Months (Oct2019-Sep2020) ====
==== Jun to Sep 2020 ====
Hi Guys. I am new to the forum and also Forex (~4 month in). My goal is to write EAs for auto trading (Also new to MQL4 and PineScript too!) Anyway I came across this thread and found that my current strategy is pretty similar to the Magic 100 (mine is more picky, only on EURUSD m15, ~53% win rate but less trades). So I just think might as well backtest the Magic 100 on EURUSD H1 as the most original form. I did add one more confirmation for trending market, which is a 20EMA and to enter a trade the 20EMA must be also trending down or up (20EMA[1]...
Nice work, man
Pressure shapes Legends
- #1,767
- Oct 9, 2020 7:58am Oct 9, 2020 7:58am
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Trader | 3,886 Posts
{quote} Thank you tommydoginti! This is awesome. Did you pay in account that Minotawr only trading in the Frankfurt/London session? And can you provide us the results with 1:3 R:R? Nice work, man
i wouldn't recommend diving into the raw Magic 100 strategy because of its inconsistency. This need some additional filters but I cannot think of one yet.
In my early months (well... just like 2 months ago), I did some intensive statistics on optimal R:R on similar trade concept, and my conclusion was 1.1R (include spread) or a combination of 1.1R+2~2.5R trailing strategy worked best in May-July, on EURUSD 15M. Any targets >2.5R were basically losing with exceptionally low win rate. Of course I cannot say for other pairs coz I haven't tried them out yet. This type of strategy, as not aiming sniper-type entries, may work better with low R:R to boost win rate.
I also played with the Simple 1-2-3 strategy in another thread, that one favors more sniper-entries, if you look for a high R:R strategy. Just again that strategy needs a twist to make it profitable.
{quote} Hi Juri, i wouldn't recommend diving into the raw Magic 100 strategy because of its inconsistency. This need some additional filters but I cannot think of one yet. In my early months (well... just like 2 months ago), I did some intensive statistics on optimal R:R on similar trade concept, and my conclusion was 1.1R (include spread) or a combination of 1.1R+2~2.5R trailing strategy worked best in May-July, on EURUSD 15M. Any targets >2.5R were basically losing with exceptionally low win rate. Of course I cannot say for other pairs coz I haven't...
Pressure shapes Legends
{quote} Don`t get me wrong, you are a few months in the forex market and judge a profitable system that provide profits over the years? Chooow...people on forex factory
- #1,771
- Oct 9, 2020 7:07pm Oct 9, 2020 7:07pm
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Trader | 3,886 Posts
{quote} Don`t get me wrong, you are a few months in the forex market and judge a profitable system that provide profits over the years? Chooow...people on forex factory
Also I only tested EU because of its lower chance of bouncing back to hit SL.My full time job involves statistics, so it's my style to analyze with stats. I found the win rate of the strategies tested have reverse correlation to R:R and can fit in an equation. 1:3RR with the backtesting rule I followed was less profitable then 2R, sweetspot was somewhere at 2.2.
My another consideration to "judge" was max DD of -45R in past yr plus staying in negative territory for long. Small acc traders probably have considered giving up this strategy if not blown up the acc already.
With lot size and risk management held constant, I would prefer a "cautious" strategy with less DD even meaning less profit.
- #1,777
- Oct 12, 2020 6:28am Oct 12, 2020 6:28am
{quote} We should not enter the position when the price is above the EMA100 and breaks a low and vice versa. That's what happened here, and that's the reason you lost.
Attachment g
Cheers
- #1,779
- Oct 12, 2020 8:15am Oct 12, 2020 8:15am
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Trader | 3,886 Posts
{quote} We should not enter the position when the price is above the EMA100 and breaks a low and vice versa. That's what happened here, and that's the reason you lost.
- #1,780
- Oct 12, 2020 1:50pm Oct 12, 2020 1:50pm
{quote} I don't think we have broken low, I added fractals and this would be double bottom let's say, but I agree that price has not same momentum. But yeah I watching closely what you comment and try to get most out of that as your skills, experience and results speak for themselves
Do not add indicators. Do not trust the indicator. Set the indicator aside.
Do you see the last swing in the picture? Did the fractal indicator show it? You might say it's not scientifically a swing, but it really is. Put science aside and see for yourself what you say.
1. The last swing is formed
2. Broken down by the candlestick
3. Pullback hit that swing
And then the price comes down
These words are out of here
I have to give you a training class And peel your skin
hahhaa
Money goes to the one who understands, not the one who rushes