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vsa with Malcolm

  • #33,521
  • Oct 6, 2020 7:41am Oct 6, 2020 7:41am
Quoting 1odi
GOLD possible short, 1hr weak background, basicaly since yesterday every move gold try to have higher it got sold into, now it has just faked yesterdays high, clear weakness, waiting on a ND or a low vol test of that small 5m AR. the only stink of this are the Dollar news due in 10m, think i m gonna wait few mints for them to pass and see if the setups is there. cheers {image}
not so sure about that. one could argue that yesterday was demand. before i sell it i would like to see a brake of today's lows. otherwise it's still strong for me, though showing some minor SOW on the highs. if we look at higher TF we have SOT (shortening of the thrust).
yesterday on the highs we had the biggest vol, we still have not closed it above it or below it.
weiss wave is showing weakening of demand on the highs, which is also the previous weeks highs, nevertheless, i would like to see more SOW before i sell it.
The more you learn the more you earn
  • #33,522
  • Oct 6, 2020 7:54am Oct 6, 2020 7:54am
AJ just entered long, EJ been long since this morning, but that lagarde speech might thro things off for the moment so SL at BE, overall so far basically everything paired with yen is long. we ll see how things progress
  • #33,523
  • Oct 6, 2020 10:25am Oct 6, 2020 10:25am
Quoting freemind
{quote} not so sure about that. one could argue that yesterday was demand. before i sell it i would like to see a brake of today's lows. otherwise it's still strong for me, though showing some minor SOW on the highs. if we look at higher TF we have SOT (shortening of the thrust). yesterday on the highs we had the biggest vol, we still have not closed it above it or below it. weiss wave is showing weakening of demand on the highs, which is also the previous weeks highs, nevertheless, i would like to see more SOW before i sell it.
how i looked at it, i saw that the 1hr chart shows generally more volume off the highs rather then the lows. then yesterdays vol with a bearish reaction off new ground made me mark that area to see the vol when it reaches there again. looking also on 5m, u can easily easy that most of the times when vol increased trying to push higher it resulted in lower prices. to me that can t be demand. some demand showed up today during the news, causing the range that we see now. ofc that u could look at gold like at the S^P and say gold is vull long term but for this week or intraday basis i for 1 wouldn t buy it. unless some really big vol comes in off the lows casting a shadow on the previous sellers. ofc u should wait for more confirmation, i didn t sold also, that s why i said possible..plus the election month and these high impact news create the messy charts that we have right now n most of the pairs. last sept till december, u would draw lines on chart hat price would just respect, not the case so far this pandemic year. atleast how i see things.
cheers
  • #33,524
  • Oct 6, 2020 4:30pm Oct 6, 2020 4:30pm
Quoting freemind
{quote} not so sure about that. one could argue that yesterday was demand. before i sell it i would like to see a brake of today's lows. otherwise it's still strong for me, though showing some minor SOW on the highs. if we look at higher TF we have SOT (shortening of the thrust). yesterday on the highs we had the biggest vol, we still have not closed it above it or below it. weiss wave is showing weakening of demand on the highs, which is also the previous weeks highs, nevertheless, i would like to see more SOW before i sell it.
this is what happened, ofc i ve no regrets for not shorting it again today with those news and wild swings, but..chart never lies (except for when trump tweets corona).
nothing beats the fake break on weak or strong background imo.
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  • #33,525
  • Oct 7, 2020 12:17am Oct 7, 2020 12:17am
I don't trust the market right now, for me its a good time to sit out and take a break from trading.

AUDJPY is the reason why, VSA tells us that if we see climatic volume on a down bar, we should look for price to rise and then come down on low volume. The low volume tells us that sellers aren't interested and allowing buyers to take price up.

Looking at AUDJPY we see climatic volume on Oct 2nd which we rallied only to come down on climatic volume. This isn't what VSA tells us to expect, we should have see low volume on the down move yesterday.

Compare AUDJPY to its parent pairs AUDUSD and USDJPY and its obvious AUDJPY is behaving more like AUDUSD and not so much like USDJPY, which AUD is heavily related to NZD and CAD and to a lesser extent EUR. So because I don't trust price returning to climatic volume on climatic volume and how heavily related AUD is to the other pairs its a good time to take a break from trading and let the market unfold.
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  • #33,526
  • Oct 7, 2020 1:32am Oct 7, 2020 1:32am
Quoting Anotan
I don't trust the market right now, for me its a good time to sit out and take a break from trading. AUDJPY is the reason why, VSA tells us that if we see climatic volume on a down bar, we should look for price to rise and then come down on low volume. The low volume tells us that sellers aren't interested and allowing buyers to take price up. Looking at AUDJPY we see climatic volume on Oct 2nd which we rallied only to come down on climatic volume. This isn't what VSA tells us to expect, we should have see low volume on the down move yesterday....
i was long AJ yesterday and got out when high vol weakness kicked in just when it broke the AR, so turned into distribution, but u are right, 1 of the main reasons i was looking to go long was that climactic vol on OCT2. i don t expect november to be much different cos of elections in US, corona and all the other crap that s been going on tho.
  • #33,527
  • Oct 7, 2020 10:36am Oct 7, 2020 10:36am
Quoting Anotan
I don't trust the market right now, for me its a good time to sit out and take a break from trading. {image}
I agree. overall risky trading and some random spikes. yesterday was buying dow and was stopped out because of trump tweet, when it dropped 500p.
today was not so much on charts as I thought nothing much will happen till NY open. Then had a couple of scalps, but i think it continues up. riskier buy stop would be above today's highs. now we have EvR on weis wave, if we dont print ND it should continue up.
the interesting look is on 1h weis wave structure: on this up move we have twice as much volume than on yesterdays down move and its very significant for last 6 days. if we go above yesterday's highs and have a test im in for a swing position.
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The more you learn the more you earn
  • #33,528
  • Oct 7, 2020 10:26pm Oct 7, 2020 10:26pm
Quoting Anotan
VSA tells us that if we see climatic volume on a down bar, we should look for price to rise and then come down on low volume. The low volume tells us that sellers aren't interested and allowing buyers to take price up. Looking at AUDJPY we see climatic volume on Oct 2nd which we rallied only to come down on climatic volume.
A few things first:

1. I don't trade this pair nor do I trade this time frame.

2. You certainly have a handle on VSA, this is by no means a criticism of your abilities.

3. This post is more about my learning than it is about teaching you.

As I have said before, my view tends to be a bit myopic. Accordingly, I have two charts here to show the same area as shown in your single chart. This is how I would have seen things.

Chart I
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This chart shows the "original" climatic volume bar.

We see our "classic" strength appearing on a DOWN bar. Note how the bar closes off its lows with the next bar UP. There must have been some buying in this interval. Otherwise, how could the next interval close UP?

A few intervals later, we see a low volume Test within the range of the climatic volume interval.

Chart II
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We find ourselves back in the same Supply/Demand Delta Zone and we are seeing more climatic volume. The highest volume of the two climatic volume bars has a narrow range on increased volume. This is a Squat, or Effort vs Result. Hence, while this interval does not have low volume as compared to the first visit (chart I), there is clear evidence of buying (strength).

Moreover, take a look at B and C. Each has decreasing volume that is less than the previous two intervals. Note the volume on C is so low, it barely registers. So, in a sense, we are seeing low volume where we expect to see it (within the range of the first or original climatic volume bar.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #33,529
  • Oct 9, 2020 1:45am Oct 9, 2020 1:45am
Quoting freemind
{quote} riskier buy stop would be above today's highs. now we have EvR on weis wave, if we dont print ND it should continue up. the interesting look is on 1h weis wave structure: on this up move we have twice as much volume than on yesterdays down move and its very significant for last 6 days. if we go above yesterday's highs and have a test im in for a swing position. {image}
ended up as a very nice trade, depending on how long you kept it open its 250-300p.
yesterday was more tricky. had 2 trades where i was stopped out on dow and only third was a good runner. will share the chart with a description later.
The more you learn the more you earn
  • #33,530
  • Oct 9, 2020 11:28am Oct 9, 2020 11:28am
On Oct 7th there was the sharp up move and just before the US session a test.

Saw the test on the opening of the 8th and started buying. The shakeout was the nail in the coffin for the sellers. Just about to close out of all these trades taken at 76.30 and above. Hold the rest for 78.50.
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  • #33,531
  • Oct 9, 2020 11:40am Oct 9, 2020 11:40am
Quoting Anotan
Some sellers tried to come in today during Asia, but buyers didn't give them any leeway. I'm closing out of all the trades taken above 1.3240, I have some big positions that I don't want to pay the swaps on. Still have a bundle of trades are 1.3200 that I'm going to keep open till the end of the year and see where price is. If price does come off and stops these trades out its no big deal, I've made my share of profit from this rally. I really did struggle for a long time and I'll be the first to say how tough it is, but put the time in with VSA...
The trades I had open from Sept 21st were taken out at BE. I was hoping that the pair would move 500 pips from the lows of Sept 21, but that didn't happen. Still though was a good trade, utilized scalping a bit more with buying dips and selling as price pushed through the highs which yielded a nice profit.
  • #33,532
  • Oct 12, 2020 10:24am Oct 12, 2020 10:24am
to encourage the active guys posting and interested in this thread. here is my long term ES trades with an explanation on charts...

p.s.
i still found it harder to trade weis wave on higher (prefer 15-10-5-1mTF), but with wyckoff and 4h&1h charts the picture was quite clear
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The more you learn the more you earn
  • #33,533
  • Edited 7:52pm Oct 12, 2020 7:29pm | Edited 7:52pm
Quoting freemind
{quote} I agree. overall risky trading and some random spikes. yesterday was buying dow and was stopped out because of trump tweet, when it dropped 500p. today was not so much on charts as I thought nothing much will happen till NY open. Then had a couple of scalps, but i think it continues up. riskier buy stop would be above today's highs. now we have EvR on weis wave, if we dont print ND it should continue up. the interesting look is on 1h weis wave structure: on this up move we have twice as much volume than on yesterdays down move and its very...
The drop was predicted even if trump didn't tweet i believe it will still drop all the the way to the target area. If I would trade US30 i would put my sell at sell area at US time and put TP at the target area and the up movement all the way back after drop was also predicted, the sign was all over the place (from VSA point of view), please check the background before the drop and the way it dropped it showed that it will back up again. It sounds like easy but it is not it needs a good analysis and a good money management to be confident to open the trade at sell area.

The index US30 and especially DAX30 are very interesting to trade because the movement is predictable but i dont trade them because of my belief.
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  • #33,534
  • Oct 13, 2020 11:40am Oct 13, 2020 11:40am
Quoting Cyberforex
{quote} The drop was predicted even if trump didn't tweet i believe it will still drop all the the way to the target area. If I would trade US30 i would put my sell at sell area at US time and put TP at the target area and the up movement all the way back after drop was also predicted, the sign was all over the place (from VSA point of view), please check the background before the drop and the way it dropped it showed that it will back up again. It sounds like easy but it is not it needs a good analysis and a good money management to be confident...
can you elaborate on your analysis more please so we all can learn:
1.why you have marked that as sell area, is it previous resistance, round number, consolidation, volume, Bollinger band (as you have them on your charts). etc? you have no markings which are along with wyckoff & VSA terminology.
2.why you have marked that as a target area not lower or higher, whats so special about that?
3.why that area is to be predicted to cross again?
the selling area is against one of the very important VSA principles- TREND. (that trade would be against the trend). from wyckoff analysis point, we could argue that on smaller TF there was UT. BUT the wave length on the up move was increasing we could do some pending sell stop, otherwise its extremely high risk sell, as only a couple of sell signs, though with a strong background.

p.s.
you have a belief to which markets you trade and which you dont?
The more you learn the more you earn
  • #33,535
  • Edited 12:46pm Oct 14, 2020 6:25am | Edited 12:46pm
Quoting freemind
{quote} can you elaborate on your analysis more please so we all can learn: 1.why you have marked that as sell area, is it previous resistance, round number, consolidation, volume, Bollinger band (as you have them on your charts). etc? you have no markings which are along with wyckoff & VSA terminology. 2.why you have marked that as a target area not lower or higher, whats so special about that? 3.why that area is to be predicted to cross again? the selling area is against one of the very important VSA principles- TREND. (that trade would be against...
pay attention to the background before trading, plan your trade and trade your plan, happy trading :-)
  • #33,536
  • Oct 15, 2020 4:59am Oct 15, 2020 4:59am
Haven't placed any trades this week, just taking some personal time.

Anyone catch the reversal on the commodity pairs? Perfect setup on UCAD.

Bar A - The bar itself is a really bullish bar with the wick on the bottom and an up bar closing on its highs, the volume on this bar is a big increase from the previous bar.

Bar B - A little confusing bar, highest volume bar of the day and looks like sort of an upthrust, but with the previous bar being Bar A sellering here would be a sucker move.

Bar C - Two bar reversal into the trigger number of Bar A.

Bar D - One last shakeout into the trigger number.
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  • #33,537
  • Oct 15, 2020 5:51am Oct 15, 2020 5:51am
Quoting Anotan
Haven't placed any trades this week, just taking some personal time. Anyone catch the reversal on the commodity pairs? Perfect setup on UCAD. Bar A - The bar itself is a really bullish bar with the wick on the bottom and an up bar closing on its highs, the volume on this bar is a big increase from the previous bar. Bar B - A little confusing bar, highest volume bar of the day and looks like sort of an upthrust, but with the previous bar being Bar A sellering here would be a sucker move. Bar C - Two bar reversal into the trigger number of Bar A....
Excellent analysis as always, A!
I saw something interesting in your chart and want to share. This is a good bullish setup:
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  • #33,538
  • Oct 15, 2020 7:36am Oct 15, 2020 7:36am
Hope most of you were all over GBPUSD Short .. pretty straight forward off yesterday WEAK BACKGROUND .. 3-hr & 4-hr TFs were more clear on the Weak Background. RED & BLUE lines are my Resistance Drawn from mainly Daily, Weekly and Monthly TFs .. Cheers .. I had not looked at GBPJPY but it was even a better set-up than GBPUSD for the short ..
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  • #33,539
  • Oct 15, 2020 7:39am Oct 15, 2020 7:39am
Solid analysis Anotan as always .. something i wish i could master .. Maybe i just need to continue with the Reading and Screen Time .. Good Stuff ..

Quoting Anotan
Haven't placed any trades this week, just taking some personal time. Anyone catch the reversal on the commodity pairs? Perfect setup on UCAD. Bar A - The bar itself is a really bullish bar with the wick on the bottom and an up bar closing on its highs, the volume on this bar is a big increase from the previous bar. Bar B - A little confusing bar, highest volume bar of the day and looks like sort of an upthrust, but with the previous bar being Bar A sellering here would be a sucker move. Bar C - Two bar reversal into the trigger number of Bar A....
  • #33,540
  • Oct 15, 2020 8:29am Oct 15, 2020 8:29am
Quoting bigiivan
{quote} Excellent analysis as always, A! I saw something interesting in your chart and want to share. This is a good bullish setup: {image}
You've shown me this pattern before and I completely forgot about it.

Well adding it to my screen shot folder and I'll add it to my toolbox.

Thanks man!
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