Current price channels on the pound via 4hr charts, not levels of support below.. also we have a break of the up channel and the start of a potentially new channel.
Joined Sep 2006
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Status: Forex Student
|182 Posts
On daily chart, we have a swing high at 1.9133 with lower highs pattern intact. We also have the swing high from 8 Aug at 1.9142.
Thus making GBP vulnerable to a correction. 23.6 fibonacci stands at 1.8990 and a break may signal more downside. However we would want to see a break below 1.9033 signalling a 1.8990 within reach. A negative stochastic cross and a reversing candlestick could be first signs of this correction. However;
Today's Nonfarm payrolls is a pain to technical analysis, so trade carefully.
I am short anyway with a stoploss just above recent swing high at 1.9133/ and 8 Aug high at 1.9142 and both need to be broken to signal a continuing uptrend and a new high on daily charts should be made before any correction.
Meanwhile my targets at 1.9033, 1.8990. and looking to hold them within Nonfarm payroll release.
ahmed, in my opinion if it wasnt for this nfp report the neg divergence at this level would have sucked prices down a long time ago.. price behavior before NFP is always unusual.
Yes, it is. And unpredictable even after the release of the data.
On the surface, what may look like good news for USD, can actually have price moving against it, as the data is dissected and digested, and it is found to be a bit, ummmm... tasteless. Good jobs numbers don't always mean positive movement for the USD.
Joined Sep 2006
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Status: Forex Student
|182 Posts
You are very right about unusual movement and wild friday moves. Well hunting for stoploss before a major move or some similar scenario. Actually It's going to be wild.. but on which side?
I just hope my stoploss is not hit. but If the market is going to take one direction and weaken dollar, it will be; easily..
many seem to think that any 3digit NFP number will help to bring about the reversal that many - including me - are waiting/hoping for. It is also argued that all technicals point in that direction.
However, it could go either way even from a TA point of view:
yes, we had a hammer and doji on D1 which suggest a reversal
but GBP has decisively broken through a major daily TL already 3/4 days ago
we now have GBP price right at a cross of H4 TLs (so if one tried to trade according to Mouteki it could go either way also
and GBP has worked off the overbought condition on any timeframe
So even TA allows for a further push up to the next level. Conclusion: do not jump to any and be very careful today.
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many seem to think that any 3digit NFP number will help to bring about the reversal that many - including me - are waiting/hoping for. It is also argued that all technicals point in that direction.
However, it could go either way even from a TA point of view:
So even TA allows for a further push up to the next level. Conclusion: do not jump to any and be very careful today.
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Ignored
yeah, good points!
current prices still favor the Cable Bulls, simply due to the fact that since Wednesday's high print, the hourlies haven't displayed any confident basis to short this thing (no genuine rollover/exhaustive & definitive lower top behaviour etc).......
the 4hr trendline off the recent push is still intact, albeit tentatively....and as FXOpportunist mentioned in a post (on another thread), we've witnessed no clear retrace-pullback since the push off 1.87......
likely focus levels will undoubtedly sit at the 1st line defenses on the attached chart - particularly Tuesdays low (8960), which marries that t-line down from the highs.......
the upside is clear cut (should the data print to the $ neg slant), it's the reaction to the downside which cause the headaches!......those near term supports will certainly offer more clues if the buck is going to attampt any kind of resurgence........as they'll then begin printing lower highs (selling the rallies) opp's on the hourly if the $ buying is genuine & not merely another fake blow-off........
Here is where I stand. Last night before going to sleep set audible alarm to wake me if it touched 1.9060, it did at 3:00 am, I then covered my short for 40 pips profit, figuring that I could get stopped out overnight anyway for break even, which I would have been. Then this mornig after the news, I got in short at 1.9021, which adding the 40 pips profit is tantamount to getting in short at 1.9061. Then on 1/4 of my position took a 75 pip profit 1.8986, and left 3/4 of my position open, with a stop at 1.9061 where I would lock in profit of 20 pips on the whole trade. At this time, it looks to me that my first post on this thread 2 days ago regarding reversal point is still valid and at this time I am letting 3/4 of initial trade run. Any comments on whether the 10 a.m. news could be bad enought to stop me out? After that possible obstacle, technically speaking this looks like its going way down, I hope. Thanks to all. Cheers
The 8 RSI downward crossed the 8 EMA of the RSI, at the top of the top 20 day BB. If this closes crossed, another powerful bearish indicator kicks in, according to Fozzy. So now we have on our side.
1. Classic technical analysis
2. Pin Bar
3. Possible Fozzy at closing.
