Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

AUD/USD is encountering the strongest possible resistance to rising. Look at the 30 year chart. The Elliott Wave count is ambiguous. As far as I know, it could either go down from here or go up to finish the 5th wave up before the trend reverses, up to as high as .7840 or even higher

Of course, the U.S. non-farm payrolls later this morning may have a strong influence over the entire market.

hi itme.....au is currently finish the wave 4 right?

According to my interpretation, the downwards 4th wave in AUD/USD is not complete. Only the downwards A and upwards B are in evidence. It still needs to descend in a 5 wave pattern (Wave C) before it can go up.

Employment Situation Summary
Technical information: Household data: (202) 691-6378 USDL 06-1903 http://www.bls.gov/cps/ Establishment data: 691-6555 Transmission of material in this release http://www.bls.gov/ces/ is embargoed until 8:30 A.M. (EST),Media contact: 691-5902 Friday, November 3, 2006. THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: OCTOBER 2006 Employment increased in October, and the unemployment rate declined to4.4 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Laborreported today. Nonfarm payroll employment grew by 92,000 in October follow-ing gains of 148,000 in September and 230,000 in August (as revised). InOctober, job growth continued in several service-providing industries, whileemployment declined in manufacturing and construction. Average hourly earn-ings rose by 6 cents over the month. Unemployment (Household Survey Data) The number of unemployed persons (6.7 million) edged down in October, andthe unemployment rate declined to 4.4 percent. A year earlier, the number ofunemployed persons was 7.4 million and the jobless rate was 4.9 percent. Unemployment rates for most major worker groups--adult men (3.8 percent),teenagers (15.4 percent), whites (3.9 percent), and blacks (8.6 percent)--showed little or no change over the month. The jobless rates for adult women(3.9 percent) and Hispanics (4.7 percent) fell in October. The unemploymentrate for Asians was 2.7 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1,A-2, and A-3.) The number of persons unemployed for 27 weeks or longer fell by 189,000 to 1.1 million in October. This group accounted for 16.0 percent of totalunemployment, down from 18.2 percent in September. (See table A-9.) Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data) In October, total employment increased by 437,000 to 145.3 million, and theemployment-population ratio edged up to 63.3 percent. The civilian labor force,at 152.0 million, was about unchanged in October; the labor force participationrate has held at 66.2 percent since June. (See table A-1.) Persons Not in the Labor Force (Household Survey Data) About 1.5 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attachedto the labor force in October, about unchanged from a year earlier. These in-dividuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometimein the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they hadnot searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginallyattached, there were 331,000 discouraged workers in October, down slightly froma year earlier. Discouraged workers were not currently looking for work specifi-cally because they believed no jobs were available for them. The other 1.1 mil-lion marginally attached had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-13.)


</PRE>http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Friday November 3 at 8:45 ET

Trade Signal #224 Batch trade concept:

Buy GBP/USD at 1.8983

Buy EUR/USD at 1.2692

Buy AUD/USD at .7686

Sell USD/JPY at 117.98

Sell USD/CHF at 1.2555

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The above reversal prediction followed a strong USD favorable move subsequent to this month's somewhat encouraging non-farm payrolls report:

<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1>8:30am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>USD</TD><TD class=alt1>Nonfarm Employment Change</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>92K</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>130K</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>51K</TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_2932 align=middle></TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY id=collapseobj_eventanalysis_2932 style="DISPLAY: none"><TR><TD class=alt1 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 11px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f0feed" width="100%" colSpan=9>


</TD></TR></TBODY><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1 noWrap></TD><TD class=alt1>8:30am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>USD</TD><TD class=alt1>Unemployment Rate</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>4.4%</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>4.6%</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>4.6%</TD></TR></THEAD></TABLE>

White House Economic advisor: employment data today was about as good as we could have hoped - CNBC

- says US in relatively good shape on the budget deficit


note: 4.4% is lowest unemployment reading since mid-2001
________________________________________

p.s. - more news from the US government caused another small spike in the same direction of travel. It is likely that the market will reverse direction now.

<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1>10:00am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>USD</TD><TD class=alt1>ISM Non-Manufacturing Index</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>57.1</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>55.0</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>52.9</TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_2965 align=middle></TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY id=collapseobj_eventanalysis_2965 style="DISPLAY: none"><TR><TD class=alt1 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 11px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f0feed" width="100%" colSpan=9>




</TD></TR></TBODY><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1 noWrap></TD><TD class=alt1>10:00am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>USD</TD><TD class=alt1>ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>51.9</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>54.0</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>56.7</TD></TR></THEAD></TABLE>

Are you still waiting for your entry price? Or you still floating your short which was stopped out earlier?

Hi Lifetime,

What currency pair or Trade Signal are you referring to?
What does "floating your short which was stopped out earlier" mean?

Friday November 3 at 9:00 ET

Exit Trade Signal #221 Sell AUD/USD at 1.7750 at market price of .7687

Profit is 60 pips

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Previous Trade Signal:

Tuesday October 31 at 13:00 ET
Trade Signal #221 Sell AUD/USD at 1.7750
Stop is 1.7776
Target is 1.7540
Risk is 30 pips
Reward is 205 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 6.8 to 1

For research purposes only.
Note: the Elliott Wave count is not clear, so this is a low confidence trade, just an experiment.
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dear itme..
are u serius to buy cable, euro, and aud?
why you don't re enter short? give me a reson plz,my friend?
what about cad jpy it is still long?where possible top?
what about euro cad it is short? where possible bottom?

Friday November 3 at 9:25 ET

Exit Trade Signal #223 Buy CAD/JPY at 102.93 at market price - 104.38 in anticipation of largish Wave 4 Correction

Profit is 135 pips

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Previous trade signals:

Thursday November 2 at 10:00 ET

As predicted, CAD/JPY came down for one more downwards wave. It is now possible to re-enter at 102.93, 67 pips lower than we advised to exit. The exit price given was 10 pips from the recent high.

Re-enter Trade Signal #223 Buy CAD/JPY at 102.93

Stop is 102.39

Target is 106.00
Risk is 64 pips
Reward is 297 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 4.6 to 1

For research purposes only.

__________________________________________________ __


Wednesday November 2 at 20:00 ET
Exit Trade Signal #223 Buy CAD/JPY at 103.60

The wave count suggests another impulse wave down, so we will exit here and re-enter lower.
______________________________________________
Wednesday November 1 at 3:15 ET
Trade Signal #223 Buy CAD/JPY at 103.40
Stop is 102.88
Target is 106.00
Risk is 62 pips
Reward is 250 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 4.0 to 1

For research purposes only.
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Dear waskito,

Thanks for your questions. We are simply performing experiments here. And our terms of reference are attempting to predict trend reversals. That is why we just suggested going long on GBP/USD, etc. We believe that there is at least 50% chance of a reversal at this point or near to it. Don't do anything unless it complies with your own personal trading system. We employ Elliott Wave theory and another theory as well. We would not go short on a currency mid-trend unless it had just completed a correction. That would not be a low risk : high reward trade. It would not comply with the terms of our experiment.

Friday November 3 at 9:30 ET

If you went short on EUR/CAD at 1.4500 as suggested, then we suggest exit now at market price of 1.4350, capturing a 140 pips profit

____________________________________________

Previous trade signal:

Update on Trade Signal #222 Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4428
Thursday November 2 at 10:00 ET

For a currently unknown reason, we entered this short trade Trade Signal #222 Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4428 prematurely. It was subsequently stopped out by 10 pips. Further wave studies indicated the likelihood of another impulse wave up, which has subsequently occured. It is possible to short EUR/CAD at the current price of 1.4500 and make modest profits while the price declines in a Wave 4 corrective wave a-b-c. There will be another wave up after that, bringing the price up to the same price as now or a bit higher, approx. 1.4525 .

That will be the ideal time to go short with a low risk / high reward trade.
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Wednesday November 1 at 2:45 ET
Trade Signal #222 Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4428
Stop is 1.4467
Target is 1.4150
Risk is 49 pips
Reward is 268 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.5 to 1

For research purposes only.
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...thanks ilke your reason..
where euro cad ,i have short too?
pliz...

I don't understand your comment Waskito. You could buy EUR/CAD now, but that is a bit risky. It would be safer to wait for it to rise to the top of its trend, and then to short it as stated above. Enjoy the profits and wait for an ideal entry with low risk and high rewards.

My comments yesterday regarding USD/CAD on the Elliott Wave Trading thread:

USD/CAD wave count by Itme


<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->According to my wave count, USD/CAD is involved in a large A-B-C upwards correction since May 31, 2006. We are in the fifth wave of the upwards C wave now, with a target of about 1.1425 to 1.1450. If the price reaches this level, then we will have a good opportunity to short this pair down to 1.1075 and further.

<!-- / message -->http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...CAD#post131173
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This morning this CAD favorable news was released:

<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1>7:00am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>CAD</TD><TD class=alt1>Unemployment Rate</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>6.2%</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>6.4%</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>6.4%</TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_2930 align=middle></TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY id=collapseobj_eventanalysis_2930 style="DISPLAY: none"><TR><TD class=alt1 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 11px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f0feed" width="100%" colSpan=9>










</TD></TR></TBODY><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1 noWrap></TD><TD class=alt1>7:00am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>CAD</TD><TD class=alt1>Employment Change</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>50.5K</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>15.0K</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>16.2K</TD></TR></THEAD></TABLE>

</B>The result was a large Wave 4 correction of USD/CAD down to about 1.1265. According to our system, there was a viable opportunity this morning at 8:31 ET to buy USD/CAD at 1.1268 with a target of about 1.1425 to 1.1450 .

USD/CAD has subsequently risen to 1.1316 in what we interpret as a first upwards wave of five, and then fallen to 1.1281 in what is either a partial or complete wave 2. It may fall again to about 1.1270 to 1.1280 which would constitute another opportunity to buy USD/CAD with low risk and a high reward potential.

Friday November 3 at 10:45 ET

Temporarily exit Trade Signal #224 Sell AUD/CAD at .8787 at current market price of .8680 and re-enter short position after an upwards a-b-c corrective wave.

Profit is 97 pips
____________________________________________-

Previous trade signal:

Wednesday November 1 at 10:30 ET

Trade Signal #224 Sell AUD/CAD at .8787
Stop is .8811
Target is .8510
Risk is 34 pips
Reward is 267 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 7.8 to 1

For research purposes only.

Note: current price is .8772. The price of AUD/CAD may not rise again to the entry price. However, according to our trading system .8787 would have been the correct entry price.
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dear itme..
thanks itme..
now i will go to sleep and enjoy my 400 pip with your helped..
thanks a lot..
happy nice day..itme..

waskito

Good night, waskito. You have had a very good week. Congratulations. Sleep well. Thanks for your involvement in this experiment.

EUR/CAD might be a good buy now. Both EUR/USD and USD/CAD could rise simultaneously, producing a large upwards move. It will require more study.
The current price is 1.4339. It could descend a bit more to provide a premium entry opportunity.

well i am a pasive user of this forum, but wow, itme, you are sucessfull in predicting the forex movement.
can you tell us a secret, how do you do that..

AdsenseGuy, it wouldn't be a secret any more if I told you! Anyways, I've been trying to tell people many things, but I don't think they understand, or want to work hard enough to get to the truth of what is actually going on, with perhaps one or two exceptions. I've been working on this for several years, and haven't totally figured it out yet, but the direction I've pursued is based on assumptions that the vast majority of people don't believe and aren't willing to even seriously consider, no matter how overwhelming the evidence.

It's the same here as in most areas of life: people are more attached to their opinions than dedicated to knowing the truth. It's obvious to me that learning to predict the Forex market is a more difficult challenge than practically any other one could set for oneself, yet the rewards are fantastic. Millions have devoted themselves over centuries to the task of predicting the market consistently and accurately, and only a handful have ever succeeded. So it obviously isn't easy, and probably can't be done in the fashion that most people try.

Let us not forget that knowledge must be gained without prejudice. There are many scientists who in reality are hypocrites, and undermine the beautiful freedom of science.

We gained our knowledge through both experimental and theoretical ways, because both ways, in their highest state, achieve the same results. It should not be thought that we want to impose our ideas upon you. We want only to remove the fetters that impede the progress of humanity.

Leave your fetters behind, for they prevent you from thinking freely.