Intraday Pound Trades on 5min chart [GBPUSD]

-47% down today, Daily Loss Limit Breached

Todays and Yesterdays trades

I originally held a short position over the weekend, but after some deliberation and discussion over in the Live Cable Thread I went Long on the Sunday Open,

FOMC is tommorow so I won't try and aim for 1.3000.

Also Interest rates are higher in USA than GBP, the monthly trend is still in play, the Sell down last week(700 pips) was from a Monthly Trendline, I would only buy pound if I thought there would be an decrease in the interest rate spread, and a New Monthly trend to start. Either USA decrease or UK increase Rate.

I think Sell is still in play, however this is a day trading mechanical system, I've cheated, however my account is UP Alot. I hope I don't blow it.

+194% on account is good after Big Loss on Friday.

Just want to get back to trading my rules.

Didn't trade today as I'm getting my mind together after 2 days of successful revenge trading.

I now regret not holding it till 1.3000, I could have trebled the account after from Fridays Loss.

Also Today (Wed 16th September )my mechanical system would have brought +50 pips in first 4 trades .

+40%

September the 22nd (3 weeks ago) was the last time I updated this journal. I actually went back in on the 22nd, made some mistakes but recovered the gains plus some more, by revenge trading. So I decided to take a break away since not following rules.

I decided to wait until October to trade, and also wait for algorithm to have few down days before resuming trading live, that was Thurs 1st October and 2nd).

So I Resume Live trading this week starting Mon 5th October, however my System has been recording near Max Loss every day this week 4 days in a row (6 days if you include Thurs 1st and 2nd), Luckily I have the skills to miss out on some of these losses. But yes this is the biggest run of losses I've seen in the system. My Algo says I should have lost 83% of my capital over the last 4 trading days, and total wipeout including 1st & 2nd OCt, but I am only down 55% from September 22nd equity High.

Also my Statistics for this system, the win rate has been going down every month since June, but still good enough to trade...I'm sure I'll get another opportunity with this system again. I'm going to sit it out wait for High Vol and trend on Daily, may be next year or whenever. If I trade on I will blow my account.

FTMO:
I've been looking at FTMO, and realized I could have made Life changing of Money In just 3 months trading, my Limit is -40pips/40% in a day (I went as far as -47%), I've never lost equivalent of -100pips either (-68% was my biggest draw-down and had a nice winning streak after).

I'm going to use my winnings to Fund several FTMO accounts, I won't trade this system with my my own capital again.

I stopped trading in October, however I have monitored/journal-ed my system at the end of every day.

I made the correct decision to stop trading in October - great call.

Oct Win Rate = 35% disgusting

Nov Win Rate = 30% Absolutely disgusting.

Compared Highest win rate 59% in July, I can't trade in these conditions.

Strategy is to wait for Month Win rate to hit >45% then I will start trading $100k FTMO Challenge, I already passed 2 demo tests,
but want to wait for optimal conditions so I can make 300-450 pips in a month/40pip day max draw-down.


Even I f I have to wait 2 years it will still be worth it. In the meantime I got better things to do, things I had been putting off

In July I thought I found the Holy grail, in later months I had to use more discernment in my trading. I made X11 my capital in July month (100:1 Leverage)

OK I'm still not trading.

However I've been Reading on Elliot Waves - EW (yes I know the inventor, Ralph Elliot Nelson, died poor), and I'm gonna have ago at Analyzing GBPUSD using EW and "Top down analysis" weekly down to 15 min, no fundamentals..
I find it hard to count the waves, it is easier in theory but on live charts it's another story, and I'm probably doing it wrong so I welcome your critique and suggestions.

I've been watching YouTube and it seems like Wave traders are killing it on FTMO, e.g https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZl...DuSsCKClmR6eLQ, << This young woman is better than 99% on this forum.

Weekly: Sell

D1: Buy then sell for bigger drop off

H4: Buy

H1: Sell

15m: Sell


A Top-Down view was supposed to give me more clarity but it hasn't, each time frame has its own direction.

Yesterdays 15min prediction did not go to plan, so I had to correct the wave count, however 1hr wave prediction was still in play, exhaustion on st charts 5min and 15 min. So I still went through with Selling Daily highs on 5 min.
1 Loss, 1 Win +86 pips!!!

OK we had a drop last night, so wave count was wrong (again): If it does not reverse now, it is sell highs today.



update, I'm currently in a sell since double bottom FAILED:

I'm Doing Well Regardless...

Currently in a Buy Trade SL at Daily Low, targeting 120pips (Regret it since 5 min may want to complete wave 5 further to the down side, but I must stick with my Plan).



Sorry the charts are a Mess, the different Colour Lines, are for counting waves on different time frames.

My EW Analysis isn't good so far, but I've still had good trades, positive.

Fundamentals do not match my EW, howevew EW supposed to work irrespective of News:

I spent the weekend Back testing Elliot Wave, on Trading View in replay, However I was wrong 80% of the time, in one way or another.

Elliot Wave is supposed to be for more precision Entries and Exits, I couldn't do it in retrospect.

There are other subscription sites that will do the count for me, better than I could do for myself.

Here are some I've been looking at:


https://wavebasis.com software $49-$399/month

https://elliottwavedesk.com $75/month Jody Samuels

https://www.elliottwaveforex.com from $20-$50/month

1st of all, Happy New Year 2021.

To put this THREAD BACK ON TOPIC (I had a detour talking about Elliot Waves.)

Original Mechanical System:
I did not trade in December as Novembers' Win% was low.

December Win Rate - 38.8% 35W 55L better, but not high enough to trade this January.

Many Losing trades in December went into decent profit, unlike November, but did not hit my 2:1 Target.

I am very strict on how I journal, it must hit the 2:1 Target. I count BE trades as Losses.

Historically I miss 23% of Losing trades that my system signals.

I probably would have made 80-110 pips. I want months where I can hit 250-400 pips.



Recap from November end:

What I learned in 2020:

Mechanical systems on 5-minute chart can work very well, just not every month.
I prefer it as my SL are 9-15pips and TP 20-29 pips, the spread is less of a factor than scalping.

I always believed they did'nt work, the only successful retail traders I knew were
Discretionary momentum scalpers (1-5 pip trades), my way is less stressful.

For the first time, I learned to stay out of the market, I have not put on a Live trade since 1st Week of
October. I quitted while I was ahead - very pleased. Normally I would keep on Trading especially after a
winning streak.

I've done loads of back-testing during this time and have found my system works well a few months every
year (almost clustered), going back to 2008. So that dispels the so-called Efficient Market Fact that the market
will Null any profitable system. Edges disappear and reappear.


New Years Resolution 2021:

When the Win% > 45% , go to FTMO, if successful I'll have the trades mirrored to a personal account also.

Plan: FTMO will aggregate and personal account will compound at 50:1 leverage (a reduction for me).

FTMO Trial 10% In 3 Days and 26 trades.

My mechanical system algo is only producing 43% win rate,
but using intuition, i missed out on losses and let winners run.

Manual Trading system Results:

January 43% Win Rate 34W 45L

December 38.8% 35W 55L

November = 30%

October = 35%



Better, No Trading in February, WinR% < 45%