That was one hell of a jobs report from CN. Really superstrong numbers: Unemp rate fell to 6.2%, mkt expected no change at 6.4%. Jobs rose a whopping 50.5k (67.6k full-time jobs). Mkt expected around 15-18k.
Very CAD bullish, but because CAD has been in a bit of downtrend I don't think the impact will be as great if the report had been equally weak.
As soon as the BoC starts looking at rate cuts, I think the CAD is in for a world of hurt, especially if oil fails to meaninfully recover. That is some way off though.
Just snoop around this forum. There is lots of advice on this subject. To summarize though the smart money reccomends that you stay away from the news till you have traded for a long time. For example look at todays USD/CAD. Most of the move you see around 6:00 Central was compleated in less than 5 seconds. Very risky
Study hard
Ignored
Also, a minute before the data came out, USD/CAD suddenly spiked some 10 pips.
Hey amigo. I believe the reality of it is that nobody will probably ever know, except the entity who placed the trade, and that's only if it is due to a single entity. The market just isn't transparent enough (different to saying it is manipulated).
What we do know is that liquidity dries up around data releases so a bit of price volatility prior to big releases is understandable...and if their is a proliferation of straddling type stop orders some 10 pips either side of the price then this can create a short-term cascade effect. Here, the price move is a result of the order structures and liquidity and no one is to 'blame'.
Alternatively, it could be broker trying to punish the straddlers, but this would be a retail phenomenon as the bigger players don't do this strategy (it can't scale to big size). I expect a big retail broker could push the price about a little come data release time, but this would involve taking a lot of proprietary risk, and would it be worth it a few second prior to the employment number? I doubt it, but that's just my view.
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Joined Apr 2006
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Status: Ousted Member
|540 Posts
Quoting bapxyz
Disliked
Yea that is a classic "pip hunting"
Ignored
So you're saying that every single broker decided to spike up 10 pips just to go hunting? Sounds like a conspiracy theory. I doubt all the brokers have a meeting just before news release to decide to manipulate every single traders data feed. If you lost due to a 10 pip spike, you lost because you have a faulty trading strategy, not because your broker was out to get you.
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Joined Jun 2006
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Status: What, NO STOPS !!
|430 Posts
Cheerio Mate; Good info thanks. I just have read some info on one of the news feeds about stops or take profits etc. being at such and such a level and it has me wondering about such things. For that matter with my little system I can see the orders out there if I take the time to look. Also you should know that thanks to your recent analysis I was able to make a tidy little profit this AM.
Now; Noob or twinchell, whatever. Chill dude. Where did I say broker, lost or strategy. Also I hope you don't use a data feed that could be manipulated by a broker. If you do you might want to shop around for a feed from like, E-signal or some other source. Might be time for a walk on the beach.
I have been blown away!!! Thanks god it was just a demo. It was calm than 10 pips spiked up (eur/usd). Naturally I entered long. For 5 seconds nothing happened.......... than BAAAAMMMMM..... -75 pips. DAMN IT!!
I'm practicing on Oanda, could you tell what happened. Do I have a slow internet connection or what. Price can't just make a one move of 70 pips can it? I have 128 kb cable. Is that enough?
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Joined Jun 2006
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Status: What, NO STOPS !!
|430 Posts
MaX
Nice data lot's of food for thought. I just noticed that the forecast you used in your last post is off an average of about 31%. I sure don't know if that average is usefull but it's the type of stuff I think about and try to use.
how do you trade the news?
do you make 2 entry order one little over the price and another below and wait for the news release?
or market orders based on your expectation before the news release?
or 2 market orders one will win and the other will loose!
some brokers Like FXCM block entry orders during high volatile news release, what you do in this situation?
Thanks
keep up the good work guys.
Could someone who traded the NFP today tell me how the price acctualy moved, was it like 60 pips down in 1 sec, or it was some other way? I'm talking about eur/usd.
