Exploring the MACD: I think it is in fact profitable | Forex Factory

Options

Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Profitable EA, Fact or Fiction? 35 replies

Anyone Knows how to read this MACD? What type of MACD is this? 6 replies

Traditional MACD histograms vs MT4's MACD Coding 8 replies

Help with MACD & MA of MACD Cross indicator 0 replies

no MACD line on MT4 MACD indicator 1 reply

Attachments: Exploring the MACD: I think it is in fact profitable
Exit Attachments

Exploring the MACD: I think it is in fact profitable

  • #1
  • First Post: May 20, 2020 2:55am May 20, 2020 2:55am
Hey guys.

This strategy looks pretty solid. So I thought i would share. I would love feed back as well.

I was playing around on youtube and came across this video on how to trade the MACD. The video showed results of 62% win rate with a risk to reward of 1%-1.5%.

I went out and tried to replicate it back trading on Tradingview and blindly taking the signals with no moving of stops to break even and entering unlikely trades. I ended up with 14.5% profit in 2 months on one currency pair.

The rules set out in this guys video are:
- Trade in the direction of the trend. He uses the 200 MA as trend filter.
- To go long the MACD cross over signal must be below the 0 line on the MACD.
- To go short the MACD cross over signal must be above the 0 line on the MACD.
- Risk was 1% with a TP of 1.5%


I did a bunch of back testing and discovered that this signal is very probable. And that the signal is most likely to occur on the lower time frames such as 15 min and 30 min. It occurred a couple of times a year on the daily time frame.

Also in my back testing. I found that the signal taking all signals in the direction of the trend was better than even odds of a win. I did not test this in detail though.

I have uploaded a couple of screen shots.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: macd ff.png Size: 50 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: macd ff2.png Size: 60 KB



I put a video of it together on youtube. Hopefully you find it easy to watch.
Inserted Video


Heres the original video by Trading rush.
Inserted Video
  • #2
  • May 20, 2020 6:39am May 20, 2020 6:39am
strategies who has rr les then 1/3 (this one 1/1.5) are very hard to stay sustainable positive in long-term for couple of reasons the major one are math and your head. when you start losing and that day will come, you will immediately start counting how much of trade you need to be positive for BE, and when this number would be 5,6 you have to have very good head to achieve this.

math problem 10 000 -1% =9.900
9.900 -1% =9.801
9.702,99-1%=9.605,96
9.605,96+1,5%=9.750,0495
9.750,0495+1,5%=9.896,300
9.896,300+1,5%= 10.044,7446
negative -3%
positive 4.5% (with positive 3% you are not even on BE) in this calculation you have to also include fee and spread (swaps- in my case trade (usd/jpy) in who i was 7 days swaps and com raised my investment for 40%, for example if you risk 1000€ and trade hit you st, your loss are 1400€)

good luck mate
patience, patience, patience and after that more patience
  • #3
  • May 20, 2020 6:55am May 20, 2020 6:55am
iam not saying this strategy are or arent profitable/good, but my suggestion are find entery signals who give you the most, and then track those trades and try find a pattern when this kind of trades happend, and then wait for those trades who give you way more then 1.5%
patience, patience, patience and after that more patience
  • #4
  • May 20, 2020 6:59am May 20, 2020 6:59am
Quoting vanca
strategies who has rr les then 1/3 (this one 1/1.5) are very hard to stay sustainable positive in long-term for couple of reasons the major one are math and your head. when you start losing and that day will come, you will immediately start counting how much of trade you need to be positive for BE, and when this number would be 5,6 you have to have very good head to achieve this. math problem 10 000 -1% =9.900 9.900 -1% =9.801 9.702,99-1%=9.605,96 9.605,96+1,5%=9.750,0495 9.750,0495+1,5%=9.896,300 9.896,300+1,5%= 10.044,7446 negative -3% positive...
1- 1.5 was just intial testing 1-2 looks possible. 1-3 might be a stretch though would need testing

Love to know what strategy you use to get 3 times your risk?
  • #5
  • May 20, 2020 7:15am May 20, 2020 7:15am
Quoting Zat42
{quote} 1- 1.5 was just intial testing 1-2 looks possible. 1-3 might be a stretch though would need testing Love to know what strategy you use to get 3 times your risk?
actually mine are 1/10 because com, spread, swap, and live trading cannot be always perfect and is 1/8-9
nothing special, waiting for the most overestimated and underestimated currency, and then possible turning point (turning trend pattern), for completely changing direction or quick short/buy squeeze
patience, patience, patience and after that more patience
  • #6
  • May 20, 2020 7:56am May 20, 2020 7:56am
Quoting vanca
{quote} actually mine are 1/10 because com, spread, swap, and live trading cannot be always perfect and is 1/8-9 nothing special, waiting for the most overestimated and underestimated currency, and then possible turning point (turning trend pattern), for completely changing direction or quick short/buy squeeze
I haven't heard the terms over estimated and underestimated in regards to forex, and a quick google does not shed any light.
Are you refering to something like this where the cross ends up so "oversold" that lower lows don't form as deep allowing the cross to "snap back" a few hundred pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: overvalued.png Size: 13 KB
  • #7
  • May 20, 2020 8:30am May 20, 2020 8:30am
Quoting Zat42
{quote} I haven't heard the terms over estimated and underestimated in regards to forex, and a quick google does not shed any light. Are you refering to something like this where the cross ends up so "oversold" that lower lows don't form as deep allowing the cross to "snap back" a few hundred pips. {image}
term are overvalued or undervalued currency, is more fundamentally then technical, but for beautiful example usd in few past weeks was just boosting against everything (bad news, positive news, no news, boost boost boost) in my eyes this is clearly overestimated, and then its time for trend change on some usd pairs, or short or buy squeeze and in this example buy squeeze or on some pairs short squeeze transform in a new trend

and yes your picture are good example but price have to go more up for 1/10
patience, patience, patience and after that more patience
  • #8
  • May 20, 2020 8:51am May 20, 2020 8:51am
Ask your account if its profitable
  • #9
  • Last Post: Sep 14, 2020 6:38am Sep 14, 2020 6:38am
Can someone make an EA from this?
0 traders viewing now