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Nat Gas anyone?

  • #461
  • Aug 21, 2020 1:30pm Aug 21, 2020 1:30pm
Natural Gas in rally mode trying to have its third consecutive up week.
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Weekly:
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  • #462
  • Sep 1, 2020 1:04pm Sep 1, 2020 1:04pm
Nat gas is starting to find some strength today and I expect it to continue it's recent upward trend and finish another week in the green. After a warmer than expected winter season in the US, summer temperatures are making up for it. It's a hot summer which is supporting Natural Gas prices.
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  • #463
  • Sep 4, 2020 2:39pm Sep 4, 2020 2:39pm
Good news for Natural Gas longs: Record heat expected Labor Day weekend in West
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  • #464
  • Sep 6, 2020 3:22am Sep 6, 2020 3:22am
I'm out of my long gas
I'll wait a lower move to load again

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #465
  • Sep 11, 2020 12:51pm Sep 11, 2020 12:51pm
Quoting kuroro001
I'm out of my long gas I'll wait a lower move to load again {image}
Good call. It looks more like a retracement than a start of a new downward trend. With winter coming, it's safe to say the bottom was made a few weeks ago.
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  • #466
  • Sep 11, 2020 1:50pm Sep 11, 2020 1:50pm
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} Good call. It looks more like a retracement than a start of a new downward trend. With winter coming, it's safe to say the bottom was made a few weeks ago. {image}
Thanks

Yes, for sure i wouldn't go naked short on gas
I'll buy again lower like you said

But lets have a look at the COT report, see what they did this week
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #467
  • Sep 23, 2020 2:49pm Sep 23, 2020 2:49pm
Natural Gas is bucking today's trend. While all other commodities are down, it's have the single best day in recent memory:
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  • #468
  • Sep 24, 2020 12:05am Sep 24, 2020 12:05am
Has anyone seen such wild movements in NG before? Falling 10-15% and the such strong rally all in a matter of few weeks? Is this short covering? With USD getting stronger commodities should fall but none of that is happening?
  • #469
  • Sep 25, 2020 3:45pm Sep 25, 2020 3:45pm
Quoting SandeepIN
Has anyone seen such wild movements in NG before? Falling 10-15% and the such strong rally all in a matter of few weeks? Is this short covering? With USD getting stronger commodities should fall but none of that is happening?
We've seen Natural Gas get hammered for a long time now. Only recently has it begun to come off the low it set. It's been hammered by a few things including two years of unusually warmer US winters and more recently cheaper oil prices. As oil prices begin to stabilize around $40, I suspect natural gas prices to see some upward pressure. But fundamentals, mostly the poor demand outlook for crude, might keep the entire energy space in limbo for quite some time.

Here's what NG (CME) looks like on the weekly chart:
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  • #470
  • Sep 26, 2020 7:14am Sep 26, 2020 7:14am
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} We've seen Natural Gas get hammered for a long time now. Only recently has it begun to come off the low it set. It's been hammered by a few things including two years of unusually warmer US winters and more recently cheaper oil prices. As oil prices begin to stabilize around $40, I suspect natural gas prices to see some upward pressure. But fundamentals, mostly the poor demand outlook for crude, might keep the entire energy space in limbo for quite some time. Here's what NG (CME) looks like on the weekly chart: {image}

Thanks. How do you see the impact of impending hurricanes on the prices of NG over the next quarter? I believe there are still quite a few large ones on the horizon!!
  • #471
  • Sep 26, 2020 8:24am Sep 26, 2020 8:24am
Quoting SandeepIN
{quote} Thanks. How do you see the impact of impending hurricanes on the prices of NG over the next quarter? I believe there are still quite a few large ones on the horizon!!
Since we are already in October the risk of a hurricane coming from the Atlantic is pretty much gone. This late in the hurricane season, if a hurricane were to form, it would most likely be somewhere in the carribean/gulf. Those are historically not very strong hurricanes. Fundamentally, in terms trading natural gas, I'd be looking to the US winter as the next key price driver for the commodity. Last two winters have been very warm. I believe some of the warmest in decades. I've learned not to ask how much lower can it go.
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  • #472
  • Sep 27, 2020 4:03am Sep 27, 2020 4:03am
I don't now how many remaining injection days we still got but storage levels are above average and could give some trouble.
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  • #473
  • Sep 28, 2020 12:47pm Sep 28, 2020 12:47pm
There's a very early cold front about to go through the midwest and eastern US. Colder Pattern Emerges This Week in the Midwest, East and October May Kick Off With Potential Frost and Freeze. It should at least support natural gas prices. But there's still the question of whether crude prices will hold up where they are. If they break, it would be a negative for natural gas.

Quoting Ll1979
I don't now how many remaining injection days we still got but storage levels are above average and could give some trouble. {image}
That's some really good info. Lots of uncertainty in the energy markets right now.
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  • #474
  • Sep 29, 2020 1:55pm Sep 29, 2020 1:55pm
Quoting Ll1979
I don't now how many remaining injection days we still got but storage levels are above average and could give some trouble. {image}
From what I have read, people are expecting exports to continue to take care of the storage problem. Let’s see how that pans out.

All in all, increasing demand is expected to support prices during winter. Some of the companies have filed for bankruptcy and this might have some issues with supply but does not seem to be worrisome. Looks like in the short term hurricane might impact supply and demand with closing of facilities and change in temperature, bringing in some volatility in price. Going into the winter the prices will firm up and later beginning of the next year start to fall. The usual cycle as it is every year, I guess.
  • #475
  • Oct 1, 2020 11:01am Oct 1, 2020 11:01am
Quoting SandeepIN
Going into the winter the prices will firm up and later beginning of the next year start to fall.
That's the general thinking but it's been so unpredictable (both weather and natgas prices).

I was almost certain we'd come off the lows and were going to keep trending higher. It looks like it's going to retest those lows.
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  • #476
  • Oct 1, 2020 11:49am Oct 1, 2020 11:49am
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} That's the general thinking but it's been so unpredictable (both weather and natgas prices). I was almost certain we'd come off the lows and were going to keep trending higher. It looks like it's going to retest those lows. {image}
Totally agree. It’s a rough ride! Need to trade light and may be a long term outlook makes more sense. Having said that anyone looking at long term trade should be ready for volatility and mark to market, I believe.
  • #477
  • Oct 3, 2020 8:39am Oct 3, 2020 8:39am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Update of my long gas / short crude spread trade Spread is still bullish, waiting for more upside {image}
Update, still effective, but could enter negative territory soon

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #478
  • Oct 4, 2020 4:57am Oct 4, 2020 4:57am
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} That's the general thinking but it's been so unpredictable (both weather and natgas prices). I was almost certain we'd come off the lows and were going to keep trending higher. It looks like it's going to retest those lows. {image}
Our NG chart are so different

how come yours doesn't look like it reached 1,5 dollars?
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #479
  • Oct 4, 2020 7:05am Oct 4, 2020 7:05am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Our NG chart are so different how come yours doesn't look like it reached 1,5 dollars?
Mine too is quite different
  • #480
  • Oct 12, 2020 2:04pm Oct 12, 2020 2:04pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Our NG chart are so different how come yours doesn't look like it reached 1,5 dollars?
Strange. I'm using TradeStation and looking at the CME's (Henry Hub) continous contract. Which to you use? Here's my daily chart:
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