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What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

  • #1,041
  • Sep 2, 2020 11:20pm Sep 2, 2020 11:20pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} The source problem is not dopamine addiction. The real problem is the lack of clear rules.
When I first read his post this is exactly what I thought, cause I've seen it. The idea of a dopamine addiction comes from the high of gambling. If you're just gambling, and that is whats getting you off, then you aren't trading with a set of clear rules. Though there are many that like to make them one in the same, they really aren't.
The best strategy is a profitable one.
  • #1,042
  • Sep 3, 2020 12:05am Sep 3, 2020 12:05am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} This means you have not set up clear rules to follow. In your recent example where you executed more than one trade for one trade signal, that's where you don't have clear rules pertaining to single signal showing up in multi-pairs which happens every trading day. In the absence of rules ...
I'm referring to his trade without rule -
Attached Image

btw I have enough statistic and frequency distribution for GBPUSD and GBPJPY from
Frankfurt 07:00 - London 08:15
  • #1,043
  • Sep 3, 2020 2:19am Sep 3, 2020 2:19am
God I love Thursdays and Fridays. It's like I'm calling the shots
The impossible is possible
  • #1,044
  • Sep 3, 2020 2:23am Sep 3, 2020 2:23am
Gbp aud going down to 1.803...aud chf going up to 0.6760 sl @ channel border
The impossible is possible
  • #1,045
  • Sep 3, 2020 3:17am Sep 3, 2020 3:17am
EURUSD & GBPUSD already hit -0.25 -> -0.5
USDCHF waiting to hit +0.5 but it reversed under +0.25 zone

BTW yesterday GBPUSD didn't hit -0.5 from first run, it then reverse back, and then in US session hit it. But on it's run it hit all possible SL... I wan in trade since I don't use SL for first order, but... so the question about SL still exist.
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Observer effect
  • #1,046
  • Sep 3, 2020 3:50am Sep 3, 2020 3:50am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} To answer this question about levels do this simple research on a demo account. Set a sell limit order at +0.75% with stoploss at 1% and take profit at 0.5%, and set a buy limit order at -0.75% with stoploss at -1% and take profit at -0.5%. OR, Set a buy limit order at +0.75% with stoploss at 0.5% and take profit at 1%, and set a sell limit order at -0.75% with stoploss at -0.5% and take profit at -1%. Run a script to close all open trades at close of NY session or Tokyo open depends how you see as start/end of the trading day. Do this for...
I think Failinforex was taking about a simultaneous buy/sell from the 0.75 which seems pretty pointless to me, since the TP in either direction would be 0.25. The only thing I would say if I was to trade that way (which I wouldn't) then based on my learning from this thread my position size for the trade 0.75 -> 1 would be less than my position from 0.75 -> 0.5.

I like your suggestion though BWilliam, basically, we are talking about mean reversion of course, so the results should speak for themselves.
  • #1,047
  • Sep 3, 2020 6:53am Sep 3, 2020 6:53am
Wowowow..I just found a good intraday trading technique online
The impossible is possible
  • #1,048
  • Sep 3, 2020 7:00am Sep 3, 2020 7:00am
Quoting Teerexteerex
Wowowow..I just found a good intraday trading technique online
GREAT!

So then why aren't you over there making money instead of slumming here??
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #1,049
  • Sep 3, 2020 7:13am Sep 3, 2020 7:13am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} GREAT! So then why aren't you over there making money instead of slumming here??
Lol well excuse me
The impossible is possible
  • #1,050
  • Sep 3, 2020 7:13am Sep 3, 2020 7:13am
Whoops! there are already several who are not interested in what the Price does 80-85% of the time ...
even though prediction is one of the most practiced "sports"!
is this an X-file? or is it an effort/ego paradox?
mmmm...
Newbie trader
  • #1,051
  • Sep 3, 2020 7:14am Sep 3, 2020 7:14am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} GREAT! So then why aren't you over there making money instead of slumming here??
I'm gonna backtest it first lol...and its based on market open.
The impossible is possible
  • #1,052
  • Sep 3, 2020 7:18am Sep 3, 2020 7:18am
Quoting fex
Whoops! there are already several who are not interested in what the Price does 80-85% of the time ... even though prediction is one of the most practiced "sports"! is this an X-file? or is it an effort/ego paradox? mmmm...
Well excuse me for always wanting to be an analyst...going to tradingview
The impossible is possible
  • #1,053
  • Sep 3, 2020 7:45am Sep 3, 2020 7:45am
Quoting Teerexteerex
{quote} I'm gonna backtest it first lol...and its based on market open.
Ahhhh, OK, so you misspoke when you said "I just found a good intraday technique". You only found a technique that you said later was worthy of further testing: "I'm gonna backtest it first."

It could actually be a total crap technique, right?
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #1,054
  • Sep 3, 2020 7:54am Sep 3, 2020 7:54am
Quoting fex
Whoops! there are already several who are not interested in what the Price does 80-85% of the time ... even though prediction is one of the most practiced "sports"! is this an X-file? or is it an effort/ego paradox? mmmm...
I predict that if you buy a lottery ticket next week that you will not win the lottery with that ticket. No "sports" there, just using statistics.

And again, using statistics with no "sports" involved, I predict that for Forex pair AAABBB that after price moves 0.xx% higher than the open that IN THE LONG RUN, if you enter a buy slightly above 0.xx% and a stop loss at 0.zz% above the open and exit when price reaches o.yy% above the open that WW% of your buys will end in profit.

Now all anyone needs to do is choose a pair to replace AAABBB, collect and analyze the data and determine all of the other values using the dataset.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #1,055
  • Sep 3, 2020 8:01am Sep 3, 2020 8:01am
Quoting Teerexteerex
{quote} Well excuse me for always wanting to be an analyst...going to tradingview
An analyst analyzes, does not judge, and especially before analysis ...

Today for the EURUSD, for now, it is one of those 85% of the days, a good target for -0.5, if previously you were sell, and a good entry at -0.5 (the bounce preferred by most, and also one of the trees that does not let us see the forest), obviously in confluence with your trading "techniques / analysis" and MM...

PS: sorry if something has bothered you ...
Newbie trader
  • #1,056
  • Sep 3, 2020 8:14am Sep 3, 2020 8:14am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} I predict that if you buy a lottery ticket next week that you will not win the lottery with that ticket. No "sports" there, just using statistics. And again, using statistics with no "sports" involved, I predict that for Forex pair AAABBB that after price moves 0.xx% higher than the open that IN THE LONG RUN, if you enter a buy slightly above 0.xx% and a stop loss at 0.zz% above the open and exit when price reaches o.yy% above the open that WW% of your buys will end in profit. Now all anyone needs to do is choose a pair to replace AAABBB,...
I think I have not explained myself well, excuse my English ...
The term "sport" has an ironic tone ...
What I meant to say is that this thread offers (after studying/working by yourself and develop) a fairly reliable prediction of the Price (based on statistics of the price movement). And some judge it (even before checking it for themselves).
On the other hand, in the forums I see how many of us love to predict that the price will rise or fall (it's just our ego, because obviously no one is capable of knowing the future), that's why I called it "sport" ...

I hope I have explained myself better, if not, I don't think I am capable of doing it better ...

regards

PS: just seeing if now EU returns to 0 (DO) ...
Newbie trader
  • #1,057
  • Sep 3, 2020 8:29am Sep 3, 2020 8:29am
I wrote a long post earlier and decided to just delete it because it was not staying on topic so if you read it just ignore it
  • #1,058
  • Sep 3, 2020 8:37am Sep 3, 2020 8:37am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Ahhhh, OK, so you misspoke when you said "I just found a good intraday technique". You only found a technique that you said later was worthy of further testing: "I'm gonna backtest it first." It could actually be a total crap technique, right?
Well if you say so lol
The impossible is possible
  • #1,059
  • Sep 3, 2020 8:39am Sep 3, 2020 8:39am
Quoting fex
{quote} An analyst analyzes, does not judge, and especially before analysis ... Today for the EURUSD, for now, it is one of those 85% of the days, a good target for -0.5, if previously you were sell, and a good entry at -0.5 (the bounce preferred by most, and also one of the trees that does not let us see the forest), obviously in confluence with your trading "techniques / analysis" and MM... PS: sorry if something has bothered you ...
I'm not trading eur usd anymore..it but my stop yesterday and doesn't meet my criteria anymore...I'm not saying it may not go up just doesn't satisfy my criteria anymore. Nothing bothering me...I don't think it's bad if I share my trades
The impossible is possible
  • #1,060
  • Sep 3, 2020 8:40am Sep 3, 2020 8:40am
Quoting fex
{quote} I think I have not explained myself well, excuse my English ... The term "sport" has an ironic tone ... What I meant to say is that this thread offers (after studying/working by yourself and develop) a fairly reliable prediction of the Price (based on statistics of the price movement). And some judge it (even before checking it for themselves). On the other hand, in the forums I see how many of us love to predict that the price will rise or fall (it's just our ego, because obviously no one is capable of knowing the future), that's why I...
Thanks for the clarification.

Now I understand your usage of "sport".
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
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