Trading with Luke

And another new position: shorted DAX30 @ 13105. The index is spiking this morning, but it has reached the upper boundary of a declining channel, and these channels, when they form after a prolonged rise such as this time, tend to break quite hard on the downside when they do break south (otherwise they just become bullish flags). I am betting that this will break to the downside.

If that happens, the UCAD will probably rise, but hoping I can squeeze some 40-50 pips from it before it does, so I have a take-profit of 1.1965 on UCAD short. I will be out for much of the day so will revert sometime in the evening to see what has happened

Chart with DAX short taken a few minutes ago, it's a 4hour chart

I couldn't resist the chart! Took a long on Brent @45.32/barrel

Weekly chart

Morning everyone!

Updates as I just closed and opened some positions:

I just closed my DAX short for -3pips as price seems to be breaking north at LDN open, It was in decent profit yesterday as I left the house, but by the time I had come back, price had almost recovered and now it continues to rise.

Closed all of my USDJPYs shorts from 106.08, 106.12 and 106.76 @ 106.06 for profits of 2pips, 6 pips and 70 pips respectively

New position taken right at LDN open: LONG FTSE100@ 5907 . Chart below.

Also still open: Brent Crude longs from yesterday, and USDCAD short

Updates in the morning of 3 Sept:

Closed now my FTSE long@5907, at 5961, for 54 pips

Yesterday I got stopped out of my Brent Crude shorts in a crude way (lol), when price crashed below 45 per barrel. Lost 42 pips as my stop was a bit below 45

USDCAD short taken at the start of the month @1.3092 I have closed them now for below 20 pips profit. The price has developed some bullish signals on the 4hour charts and it looks like those may develop into daily bullish signals. The opposite has happened with crude, so the combination of these makes not me want to be short UCAD now, unless the bullish price signals get invalidated

It is a strange junction on the indices where, on some indices the retailers like us are heavily long whilst on others we are heavily short, so there is no clear one-way bias across main markets.

Currently flat on all markets and watching mainly indices

Here's some long punts I've taken on the USDJPY. I will post these in the USDJPY discussion thread too.

The rising pennant formation allows for tight stop loss on a punt like this.

New position: LONG CAD/JPY@ 81.22

this is a sizeable position for me.

Nice pattern on the weekly. I haven't taken a position this big in a while

New position: USDCAD SHORT again : 1.3080

I intend to hold these shorts and add to them if price rises. Bearish conviction high over the long term

I strongly suspect that UCAD is on its way to 1.12 , CADJPY to 105-106, USDJPY to nearly 125 again (!) and EURGBP back to 0.70s (!). Cable is aiming for 1.57-1.60, and EUR will rise too, but much less

I am opening positions in accordance with this bias. Already long CADJPY, USDJPY and now UCAD. About to enter short EURGBP and Long cable positions, which I will post in relevant public threads too. Maybe people find them interesting, lol

Here;s the EURGBP short and Cable longs that I have now opened

Hello all!

New position opened just now: LONG GBP/JPY @ 140.90

As with my other positions opened yesterday, I intend to add to this if/as price declines. It is a long term position for which I have high...expectations

On my other positions, price has moved against me on a couple of them but not by enough for me to add to them yet. I will seek to add roughly for every 100 pips that the price goes against me and I am prepared to allocate capital to keep adding to them even for several hundred pips of adverse movement. My overall bias is that prices on the pairs I have chosen will roughly return to levels of end of 2014 - 1st half of 2015. Not the same for the stock indices. I have no idea what they will do, but they will probably whipsaw for several months in a broad range

GBP/JPY daily chart

Hello everyone!

Not much in terms of updates from my side. Last week, especially on Friday when volatility calmed down a bit, I added to my existing positions, except to USDJPY where the price hasn't moved much. Still no trades open on any indices. Only forex. I will post pictures and more details later this week. I have been unwell and had some hospital appointments over the last few days, and my pufferfish can't type so...

Have a good week!

I'm subscribing and following you; not because you are good, but because every chart and trade you mention is 100% wrong

Show me 1 entry that went the way of your "bias" or "forecast" : I can make a fortune from this!

Prove me wrong, and please don't ever learn any technical analysis or chart reading, keep them coming

Back to FF, this time from Barbados. Posted a bit more about it on Cable thread so not going to repeat it here.

My overall USD bearish bias is still in place and I have kept building USD short positions across markets. Exceptions are USDJPY where I am building longs (yes, they hurt and will hurt more as USD keeps going down, but it's pain I am prepared to take for Japan-specific reasons) and EUR/GBP which obviously is not a USD-related cross.

Here's some weekly snapshots of some of the main positions accumulated over the past few months. I am sure I have explained before, in threads and news comments, the basis of my USD negative view, so I am not going to repeat it once again here.

Happy new year to everyone!

Hello everyone!

Significant updates: I have now exited all my long commodities & share indices and short USD positions across the board. On the USD/JPY yen I will post separately.

I will post some indicative positions and my estimates for next moves/direction over the next 3 months.

Starting with Brent Crude: offloaded all my longs from the late August-October period for a nice profit and have reversed into Brent SHORTS, which at present I expect to keep until early April

Weekly candle chart attached

USDCAD, my favourite manipulated pair!

Back in September I started shorting at 1.3080 (post is in this thread). I kept building shorts in anticipation of a USD depreciation vs CAD (CAD being commodities-heavy)

As I posted on Jan 6th (chart snapshot taken on Sunday 3rd), those "tweezer/doji/whatever" bars at 1.27 were not yet the bottom.

Well now, a few days later, I think we formed the bottom for the next 3 months or so, so I have exited all USD/CAD shorts and reversed into LONGS.

Projected target on the posted updated weekly candle chart

And here's Cable! We all love this pair don't we!

I was building longs throughout the Sept '20- Nov'20 period as posted here and in the cable thread. My bias was ofc USD dollar depreciation and , on the more chart/technical front, I expected this to translate into taking out the top of Dec'19, which finally happened at the very end of 2020/beginning of 2021.

This done, I have now exited all Cable longs and reversed into shorts. Target is 1.2800-1.2850 (or, if you insist or not-picking a bottom, 1.2820!

Timing for this target to be reached is within the first half of April 2021, i.e. 3 months from now.
I anticipate a choppy ride down. This won't be as one-sided a move as in, say, Brent Crude. Different markets, different participants, different liquidity conditions = different ways of moving in the same direction.

I will post this on the Cable Update thread as well now.

Here's a snap representative of other markets where I trade: Long-dated government bonds (Bunds, Treasury's and Gilts)

The picture is very similar across these markets, so here's I'm showing just the US 10-year note as an example.

The price is most likely completing a fakeout (fake breakout) of its 4-month tight declining channel and everyone is screaming at rising yields.

I have entered long, in anticipation of price exceeding the 'double tops' of 2020

When one zooms in, for example on the daily candle chart, there are more technical elements in price's movement that also argue against this being a fake out. For example, the price reversed sharply just before it reached the upper channel boundary and rushed to break the lower boundary, all within a week.

Usually, when we are in a range/channel, such rushed moves from one boundary to the other are reversed, and do NOT result in a genuine breakout

Daily and weekly candle charts posted. Apologies for the size, lol

As I mentioned, I have exited all long stock index positions and reversed into short.

Here's a weekly candle chart of the SP500 with target and timing, as an example.

And now the Yen!

As I posted here on 3rd September, I entered CADJPY long (so JPY short) and other short JPY positions.

I kept building those until early Nov '21, when the pairs completed a 2-legged correction and reversed, moving up.

I have now liquidated all JPY short positions for a profit and entered short, expecting a sharp move down (a sharp Yen rise) into early April 2021.

Posting weekly chart of CAD JPY as an example.

Finally, EURGBP!

I expect EUR/USD's correction to be even choppier than Cable's, so this should result in an even choppier EURGBP movement.

However, I am still holding on to the shorts I have been building in the last 3rd of 2021 and my expectations are shown in the below weekly candle chart: