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Let's Trade Options

  • #17,781
  • Sep 2, 2020 12:40am Sep 2, 2020 12:40am
Update so far

Sold AU for 150% profit (should have held but EU exposure is high so needed to reduce risk on USD bearishness. While I do consider GY the hedge, the position is relatively small)
EU ATM
GY OTM
CADCHF ATM
  • #17,782
  • Sep 2, 2020 2:54pm Sep 2, 2020 2:54pm
Quoting The Fool
sold a SPY call vert, 9/11 $340/343, for 83c
well I guess I should look at rolling these up.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,783
  • Sep 3, 2020 12:07am Sep 3, 2020 12:07am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} well I guess I should look at rolling these up.....
Perhaps yes. SP seems full steam ahead. in lack of value elsewhere it seems investors are going for the blue chips
  • #17,784
  • Sep 3, 2020 12:08am Sep 3, 2020 12:08am
huge miss in ADP today, indices didn't notice. Another big miss in NFP data Friday maybe cause pigs to look up from the trough...?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,785
  • Sep 3, 2020 12:14am Sep 3, 2020 12:14am
IF USD itself cant manage to recover, which i dont see happening anytime soon, indices will remain bullish imo
  • #17,786
  • Sep 3, 2020 12:24am Sep 3, 2020 12:24am
yeah, it's been suicidal to bet against the runaway bull market, but all manias come to an end sometime.

Probably not so soon, but I think it's inevitable that there will be a lot of volatility going into and coming out of the Nov 4 election. I have been setting up positions around that for months....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,787
  • Sep 3, 2020 11:56pm Sep 3, 2020 11:56pm
Quoting The Fool
yeah, it's been suicidal to bet against the runaway bull market, but all manias come to an end sometime. Probably not so soon, but I think it's inevitable that there will be a lot of volatility going into and coming out of the Nov 4 election. I have been setting up positions around that for months....
Interesting movement on SP so far. Could be the Minsky moment has finally arrived?
  • #17,788
  • Sep 4, 2020 1:47am Sep 4, 2020 1:47am
Interesting take here. He feels its the covered call selling thats propped the prices up. If that is the case then things will surely go south in equities.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investo.../#3ecd4db3715d
  • #17,789
  • Sep 5, 2020 11:54pm Sep 5, 2020 11:54pm
I'm not into TA very much but I like watching an occasional Slim vid....

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,790
  • Sep 8, 2020 4:49pm Sep 8, 2020 4:49pm
btfd always a possible trade in the Fed's market, so i bot a SPY Sep18 call diagonal, $350/351. for a nickel credit. Will watch the action and maybe sell a call vert around there with the diag as a guard.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,791
  • Sep 9, 2020 2:20am Sep 9, 2020 2:20am
Quoting The Fool
btfd always a possible trade in the Fed's market, so i bot a SPY Sep18 call diagonal, $350/351. for a nickel credit. Will watch the action and maybe sell a call vert around there with the diag as a guard.
There is perhaps one more up leg till around 3500 imo. But be careful with your calls around there. I will be buying puts around that level.
  • #17,792
  • Sep 10, 2020 11:54pm Sep 10, 2020 11:54pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: VXX01.png Size: 226 KB

rising VIX a guarantee
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,793
  • Sep 10, 2020 11:59pm Sep 10, 2020 11:59pm
Quoting The Fool
sold a SPY call vert, 9/11 $340/343, for 83c
from a month+ ago, riding it right down to the wire for full credit...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,794
  • Sep 11, 2020 12:55am Sep 11, 2020 12:55am
Quoting goldfish3
Update so far Sold AU for 150% profit (should have held but EU exposure is high so needed to reduce risk on USD bearishness. While I do consider GY the hedge, the position is relatively small) EU ATM GY OTM CADCHF ATM
sold GY put. for 150% profit
  • #17,795
  • Sep 11, 2020 1:47pm Sep 11, 2020 1:47pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} from a month+ ago, riding it right down to the wire for full credit...
full pwofit, $83 x a buttload (jk), hope to get one more chance to do it again, next week, maybe up above $350 out at Nov20
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,796
  • Sep 13, 2020 9:22pm Sep 13, 2020 9:22pm
a cautionary tale...

I (almost) always close short options b4 expiry....

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,797
  • Sep 13, 2020 9:23pm Sep 13, 2020 9:23pm
/es futures up $36 and I will not be surprised to see indices rally back to near ath's in the coming week or so
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,798
  • Sep 13, 2020 11:13pm Sep 13, 2020 11:13pm
Quoting The Fool
btfd always a possible trade in the Fed's market, so i bot a SPY Sep18 call diagonal, $350/351. for a nickel credit. Will watch the action and maybe sell a call vert around there with the diag as a guard.
I prolly leg into SPY call time spread looking at Sep21 $345 to start...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,799
  • Sep 14, 2020 2:07am Sep 14, 2020 2:07am
Quoting The Fool
btfd always a possible trade in the Fed's market, so i bot a SPY Sep18 call diagonal, $350/351. for a nickel credit. Will watch the action and maybe sell a call vert around there with the diag as a guard.
it's safe to $352 or so...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: diag1.png Size: 300 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,800
  • Edited Sep 15, 2020 7:33am Sep 14, 2020 9:56pm | Edited Sep 15, 2020 7:33am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I prolly leg into SPY call time spread looking at Sep21 $345 to start...
I went Sep25 $349c for 95c, let's see if I got headfaked. Will look to diagonal for a safe profit....

...loading Sep23 $350 short calls for $1.25......we'll see
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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