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  • #2,701
  • Sep 1, 2020 2:58pm Sep 1, 2020 2:58pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} Perfect reason for not using a Mac for trading
It can change when Apple starts using their own A chip to Mac lines, because it's basically Intel's problem....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,702
  • Sep 1, 2020 9:08pm Sep 1, 2020 9:08pm
Natural-gas futures gain nearly 50% in August, but rally may be ‘short-lived’
August percentage gain was largest since 2009

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/na...ved-2020-09-01

Natural-gas futures rallied in August, tacking on nearly 50% to tally their largest monthly percentage gain in more than a decade as strong demand for the fuel in power generation significantly cut U.S. supplies in storage.
In March, U.S. inventories of natural gas were 81% higher than the same a time year ago, but supplies recently stood at 20% above the year-ago level, according to Peter McNally, global sector lead for industrial materials and energy at investment research firm Third Bridge.
The “need for backup power and peaking power demand” increased in the short term, amid blackouts in California, lifting usage of natural gas, he says.
On Aug. 31, October natural-gas futures NGV20, -0.15% settled at $2.63 per million British thermal units, with front-month prices climbing by roughly 46% for the month to date. They posted the largest one-month percentage rise since September 2009, when prices rose 62.6%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Prices saw a big increase at the beginning of August, buoyed by “strong demand from natural gas-fired power generation,” according to a monthly report from the Energy Information Administration released on Aug. 11. The EIA estimates that natural-gas consumption for power generation rose to 43.6 billion cubic feet per day in July 2020, “higher than any month on record.”
Still, a decline in industrial natural-gas consumption, which fell by 1.4 billion cubic feet per day in July from a year earlier, likely due to slower economic activity, partially offset strength in consumption from electric power, the EIA said.
Meanwhile, the “regulatory climate” has limited future supply growth, says McNally. Duke Energy Corp. DUK, -1.40% and Dominion Energy Inc. D, -0.79% cancelled the Atlantic Coast Pipeline, which would have “taken natural gas from Appalachia to the Carolinas,” he says.
Companies that produce natural gas, as well as the number of active natural-gas drilling rigs, have also failed to respond to higher prices, he said. “Natural-gas drilling remains at multiyear lows”—likely due in part to financial issues, with Chesapeake Energy Corp. CHKAQ, -6.39%, a major producer, filing for bankruptcy, he says.
Natural-gas production has fallen as producers have cut back on drilling and completion activities as a result of lower oil and natural-gas prices, according to the EIA, which estimates that output declined to 86.8 billion cubic feet per day in July, down 9.5 billion from the peak in November of 2019. That, combined with the rise in power generation demand, contributed to lower-than-average U.S. supply increases in July, it said. Even so, for the week ending Aug. 21, natural-gas inventories stood around 20% above the year-ago level.
The market will be looking to natural-gas output that’s associated with oil production, says McNally. “Additional supplies of natural gas have emerged from the Permian Basin that produces natural gas associated with targeted oil production,” he says. “That associated gas supply has come off with oil production in recent months, but it is something we will be watching going ahead.”
The natural-gas supply surplus ‘remains formidable with the summer cooling season drawing to a close in September.’
— Marshall Steeves, IHS Markit
Meanwhile, Hurricane Laura, which made landfall in Louisiana in late August, also contributed to the climb in natural-gas prices, says Marshall Steeves, energy markets analyst IHS Markit, with the resulting production decline expected to be met with a similar fall in demand due to power losses.
Prices for natural gas have climbed by nearly 80% from the year-to-date low in late June of around $1.48 Btus. However, the natural-gas supply surplus “remains formidable with the summer cooling season drawing to a close in September,” which is a transitional month, says Steeves.
The natural-gas price rally may be “short-lived, absent another heat wave or supply disruption,” he says.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,703
  • Sep 2, 2020 4:45pm Sep 2, 2020 4:45pm
NGX20-NGV20 (Nov-Oct contract spread). Looks interesting....
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Pretty stiff contango.....

And fundermental......
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...ce-hard-670111

I am currently betting spread narrowing. When Oct-Nov rollover approaches, I expect its spread will become narrower. No guarantee but I think it's historically, statistically sold betting at least....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,704
  • Sep 2, 2020 10:25pm Sep 2, 2020 10:25pm
I was stupid enough to pay $25/m for Sierra Chart. I didn't know my broker provides Sierra Chart package3 for free for years!! Compared to $25/m Package5, Package3 has several pro features (such as TPO) disabled but I don't use them anyway. AMP's watered down free version of Tradingview is a crap but free version Sierra Chart is different. My old templates just work in Package3. Oh, shit..... Anyway, as it's free now, I started using Sierra Chart again. Sierra Chart is very powerful at the cost of complex interface.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,705
  • Edited 11:58pm Sep 3, 2020 3:49am | Edited 11:58pm
Quoting heispark
Market by Order (MBO) https://www.cmegroup.com/education/m...order-mbo.html {image} {image} Iceberg Order https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/icebergorder.asp https://bookmap.com/wiki/Iceberg_Orders_Tracker {image} {image} {image}
Quoting heispark
{quote} Another Bookmap video from Scott Pulcini..... I think he explains Bookmap in the easiest way.... https://youtu.be/y4DwDlN9R-I
Although I don't use Bookmap anymore, I find it's somewhat interesting MBO (Market By Order) application......

https://bookmap.com/blog/bookmaps-st...with-mbo-data/

Inserted Video


But on the other hand, huge volume is now processed by dark pools and there are many ways to hide iceberg orders, I am a bit skeptical about its practical application.......
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,706
  • Edited 8:09pm Sep 4, 2020 7:40pm | Edited 8:09pm
Quoting heispark
50 Weeks Forex Historic Volatility (pips): https://www.mataf.net/en/forex/tools/volatility The worst looks over but still looks not enough.... {image}{image}{image}{image}{image}{image}{image}{image}{image}{image}
Weekly, Monthly pip based volatility:

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Perhaps, most retail day traders rely on momentum breakout strategy because it's the easiest. However, it requires high volatility, preferably more than 100 pips move per day. It's not coincidence that RJ often trades minor or exotic pairs. Without high enough volatility, his strategy doesn't work. Trade off is they are mostly lower in pip value:
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I don't trade Bitcoin but I could understand why many retail traders love it. It has super high volatility.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,707
  • Sep 4, 2020 8:08pm Sep 4, 2020 8:08pm
The Surprising Jump In U.S. Natural Gas Prices

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com...al-gas-prices/

Through the worst public health crisis in many decades, U.S. natural gas prices were low and stable from January until the end of July. For the first half of this year, prices were just $1.81 per MMBtu, their lowest since at least 1989. But unpredictably so, August proved to be a much different story. Prices through the month rose nearly 45%. We are now seeing the highest prices since mid-November – seemingly out of nowhere.
Analysts are scrambling to describe what happened in August to surge gas prices. But neither the technicals nor the fundamentals neatly explain such a jump. The weather was nothing bullish, and gas storage has been overflowing. At 3,420 Bcf, we now have a 20% surplus to year-ago levels and 15% more than the five-year average. U.S. gas production, however, has been mostly flat. Output for August was 86-87 Bcf/d, down from the 93-94 Bcf/d level we were at pre-pandemic. And this past week, Hurricane Laura shut-in “82% of oil, 59% of natural gas output in U.S. Gulf of Mexico” so national output did dip to 85 Bcf/d.
But still, especially as the shale-era since 2008 has lifted our production zones away from the vulnerable Gulf of Mexico to the inland shale plays like Appalachia and the Permian basins, hurricanes should be mostly bearish events. They lower gas demand by cutting electricity needs and shutting-in exports. In particular, the southeast and southwest regions have installed huge coal-to-gas fuel switching. Florida, for instance, has used gas to generate a staggering 76% of its electricity for the first half of 2020. This past week, U.S. LNG exports were shut-in from Hurricane Laura, with feedgas demand falling from 5.2 Bcf/d to 2.0 Bcf for August 22-27.
We all knew that gas prices were unsustainably sunk for the first seven months of 2020, generally in the extremely low range of $1.60 to $1.90. This is especially true since natural gas is on its way to surpass oil and become our most vital source of energy – likely at some point within the next five to seven years. Through the ongoing pandemic, U.S. gas usage could be classified as “surprisingly high and on par with year-ago levels.” In fact, we set a record for gas power generation in July, one day hitting a whopping 47 Bcf/d.
Easily the most bearish factor for the gas market through COVID-19 has been the huge drop in U.S. LNG exports, which hit a booming ~9.6 Bcf/d at the end of January until spiraling to ~3.3 Bcf/d for July – driven by low prices and demand globally. This past week, however, U.S. piped gas exports to Mexico were up to all-time record levels at 6.7 Bcf/d. All told, U.S. gas consumption for the three main sectors of power, industrial, and res/comm was at 73-75 Bcf/d for August, right where it was for July.
Looking forward, the U.S. Energy Information Administration has natural gas prices averaging $2.11 this year and $3.25 for 2021. The primary explanation for such a jump is that the Administration sees production continuing to fall, averaging just 84 Bcf/d next year. Not me. I see higher prices for both oil and gas bringing on more supply, reaching back up over 90 Bcf/d in a matter of months. We will need the new production because winter demand spikes 40-60% over summer, not to mention a much-improved outlook for exports.
But with the RSI hitting 73 on Friday, an overbought market is already beginning to pull pricing back down a bit, down 8% this week to $2.45 as of this morning. And temperatures are cooling down. Stay tuned, as we saw in 2018 (almost hitting $5.00) and 2019 (almost hitting $4.00), November is that mountain on the horizon. November is the key month for gas prices to really spike – with a cold and early start to winter prone to spooking the market.
Source: Forbes
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,708
  • Sep 5, 2020 12:21pm Sep 5, 2020 12:21pm
Quoting heispark
The Surprising Jump In U.S. Natural Gas Prices https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com...al-gas-prices/ Through the worst public health crisis in many decades, U.S. natural gas prices were low and stable from January until the end of July. For the first half of this year, prices were just $1.81 per MMBtu, their lowest since at least 1989. But unpredictably so, August proved to be a much different story. Prices through the month rose nearly 45%. We are now seeing the highest prices since mid-November – seemingly...
Thank you Justin for the information since I was wondering why NG went up 16¢ in the last two days.
  • #2,709
  • Sep 6, 2020 6:51am Sep 6, 2020 6:51am
Inserted Video


Youssou N'Dour - 7 Seconds ft. Neneh Cherry

Boul ma sene, boul ma guiss madi re nga fokni mane
Khamouma li neka thi sama souf ak thi guinaw
Beugouma kouma khol oaldine yaw li neka si yaw
mo ne si man, li ne si mane moye dilene diapale

Roughneck and rudeness,
We should be using, on the ones who practice wicked charms
For the sword and the stone
Bad to the bone
Battle is not over
Even when it's won
And when a child is born into this world
It has no concept
Of the tone the skin is living in
It's not a second
7 seconds away
Just as long as I stay
I'll be waiting
It's not a second
7 seconds away
Just as long as I stay
I'll be waiting X3

-j'assume les raisons qui nous poussent de changer tout,
I assume the resons's that leads us to change everything,

-J'aimerais qu'on oublie leur couleur pour qu'ils esperent
I'd wich we would forget their color so they can hope

-Beaucoup de sentiments de races qui font qu'ils desesperent
lots of sensations(or fellings) lots of races that leads them to despair

-Je veux les portes grandements ouvertes,
I wan't the doors wide open,

-Des amis pour parler de leur peine, de leur joie
friends to talk about theire sorrow, about theire joy
("peine" is sorrow, sadness trouble, difficulty or can be a criminal sentence
etc)

-Pour qu'ils leur filent des infos qui ne divisent pas
so they can give'em infos that do not divide(scatter)

-Changer
change

7 seconds away
Just as long as I stay
I'll be waiting
It's not a second
7 seconds away
Just as long as I stay
I'll be waiting X3
And when a child is born into this world
It has no concept
Of the tone the skin is living in
And there's a million voices
And there's a million voices
To tell you what she should be thinking
So you better sober up for just a second
7 seconds away
Just as long as I stay
I'll be waiting
It's not a second
7 seconds away
Just as long as I stay
I'll be waiting
It's not a second
7 seconds away
Just as long as I stay
I'll be waiting

-------------------

(English)
Don't see me from a distance, don't look at my smile
And think that I don't know what's under and behind me
Idon't want you to look at me and think
What's in you is in me, what's in me is to help them

Roughneck and rudeness,
We should be using, on the ones who practice wicked charms
For the sword and the stone
Bad to the bone
Battle is not over
Even when it's won
And when a child is born into this world
It has no concept
Of the tone the skin is living in

(CHORUS)
It's not a second, seven seconds away
Just as long as I stay, I'll be waiting
It's not a second, seven seconds away
Just as long as stay, I'll be waiting
I'll be waiting,
I'll be waiting

I assume the reasons that push us to change
I would like that they forget about their color,
so that they can have hope
Too many views on race that make them desperate
I like the doors wide open
So that friends can talk about their pain and their joy
Then we can give them information, that will bring us all together

(CHORUS)
It's not a second, seven seconds away
Just as long as I stay, I'll be waiting
It's not a second, seven seconds away
Just as long as I stay, I'll be waiting
I'll be waiting,
I'll be waiting

And when a child is born into this world
It has no concept
Of the tone of the skin he's living in
And there's a million voices
And there's a million voices
To tell you what she should be thinking
So you better sober up for just a second

Seven seconds away
Just as long as I stay, I'll be waiting
It's not a second, seven seconds away
Just as long as I stay, I'll be waiting
It's not a second, seven seconds away
Just as long as I stay, I'll be waiting
It's not a second, seven seconds away
Just as long as stay, I'll be waiting
It's not a second, seven seconds away
Just as long as I stay, I'll be waiting
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,710
  • Sep 6, 2020 8:44am Sep 6, 2020 8:44am
VWAP zscore

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https://forex-station.com/viewtopic....35#p1295418135
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File Type: ex4 VWAP zscore - (mtf + alerts + arrows).ex4   62 KB | 488 downloads


TradingView version: https://www.tradingview.com/script/H...VWAP-LazyBear/

Inserted Video

Inserted Video

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By the way, is VWAP in Forex accurate?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,711
  • Sep 6, 2020 9:11am Sep 6, 2020 9:11am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Weekly, Monthly pip based volatility: {image}{image} Perhaps, most retail day traders rely on momentum breakout strategy because it's the easiest. However, it requires high volatility, preferably more than 100 pips move per day. It's not coincidence that RJ often trades minor or exotic pairs. Without high enough volatility, his strategy doesn't work. Trade off is they are mostly lower in pip value: {image} I don't trade Bitcoin but I could understand why many retail traders love it. It has super high volatility.
EURUSD vs. Natural Gas Futures (/NG) daily volatility

Last Friday, EURUSD's daily range was 79 pips, while /NG's daily range was 174 ticks (EURUSD 1 lot 1 pip = $10, /NG 1 contract 1 tick = $10). I love Nat Gas !!
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,712
  • Sep 6, 2020 12:39pm Sep 6, 2020 12:39pm
Quoting heispark
https://youtu.be/wqCpjFMvz-k Youssou N'Dour - 7 Seconds ft. Neneh Cherry Boul ma sene, boul ma guiss madi re nga fokni mane Khamouma li neka thi sama souf ak thi guinaw Beugouma kouma khol oaldine yaw li neka si yaw mo ne si man, li ne si mane moye dilene diapale Roughneck and rudeness, We should be using, on the ones who practice wicked charms For the sword and the stone Bad to the bone Battle is not over Even when it's won And when a child is born into this world It has no concept Of the tone the skin is living in ...
This is an old song but is quite appropriate in my country and others at this time where there is rampant discrimination for people other than those of the main ethnicity. I don't understand Creole but I'm fully fluent in French. Thank you for the English translation.
  • #2,713
  • Sep 6, 2020 1:10pm Sep 6, 2020 1:10pm
Quoting heispark
VWAP zscore {image} By the way, is VWAP in Forex accurate?
To be accurate VWAP needs accurate volume data and this is impossible since there are large and small forex brokers and although they all indicate the right price (I hope!) all of them will have different volume for each price level so there is no way that VWAP will be accurate. Maybe, for the few largest forex brokers that have a high transaction volume, it might be somewhat accurate but not perfect. This is the reason why I never use it.
  • #2,714
  • Sep 6, 2020 1:23pm Sep 6, 2020 1:23pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} EURUSD vs. Natural Gas Futures (/NG) daily volatility Last Friday, EURUSD's daily range was 79 pips, while /NG's daily range was 174 ticks (EURUSD 1 lot 1 pip = $10, /NG 1 contract 1 tick = $10). I love Nat Gas !! {image}{image}
It looks lke that the data for NG can differ from broker to broker. For my broker the daily range was 14.2 ticks. The tick value difference, $100 for my broker (1¢ per tick) and $10 for your broker (0.1¢ per tick) can explain some difference but not all. In any case Friday was a great trading day for NG.
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  • #2,715
  • Edited 6:05pm Sep 6, 2020 5:00pm | Edited 6:05pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} To be accurate VWAP needs accurate volume data and this is impossible since there are large and small forex brokers and although they all indicate the right price (I hope!) all of them will have different volume for each price level so there is no way that VWAP will be accurate. Maybe, for the few largest forex brokers that have a high transaction volume, it might be somewhat accurate but not perfect. This is the reason why I never use it.
It looks MT4 VWAP of Nat Gas roughly matches /NG futures VWAP. I doubt Forex's VWAP is accurate but it may still work as tick volume (especially from ECN brokers) usually closely tracks Futures volume studies. Otherwise, two MQL4 gods in forex-station.com (Mladen and Mrtools) would have told already that it is a crap......
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,716
  • Edited 9:40pm Sep 6, 2020 5:05pm | Edited 9:40pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} It looks lke that the data for NG can differ from broker to broker. For my broker the daily range was 14.2 ticks. The tick value difference, $100 for my broker (1¢ per tick) and $10 for your broker (0.1¢ per tick) can explain some difference but not all. In any case Friday was a great trading day for NG. {image}
Nat Gas available in MT4 is CFD. Tick size of CFD is different from broker by broker. I trade /NG Futures and it's broker independent. CME solely decides the specification of its futures products. I don't trade Nat Gas with my forex broker ICMarkets. Spread is too wide. They are great in forex trading but at least regarding the Nat Gas trading, it's a joke. If you are serious about Nat Gas (or any other commodities) trading, you may want to trade Futures instead of CFD.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,717
  • Sep 7, 2020 1:15am Sep 7, 2020 1:15am
Some people are skeptical to order flow study.... Anyway, it's still often be true that big limit orders are there to be filled. About 120 limit orders at 2.540 were there to be filled. 318 limit orders at 2.400 draws attention too. It also can be a spoofing. Spoofing is illegal these days but it's still found. This information may or may not be useful to your game plan....
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,718
  • Sep 7, 2020 11:47am Sep 7, 2020 11:47am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Nat Gas available in MT4 is CFD. Tick size of CFD is different from broker by broker. I trade /NG Futures and it's broker independent. CME solely decides the specification of its futures products. I don't trade Nat Gas with my forex broker ICMarkets. Spread is too wide. They are great in forex trading but at least regarding the Nat Gas trading, it's a joke. If you are serious about Nat Gas (or any other commodities) trading, you may want to trade Futures instead of CFD.
I like to trade the NG CFD but I'm not serious enough to open a Future account since NG is only a small part of my trading
  • #2,719
  • Sep 7, 2020 5:13pm Sep 7, 2020 5:13pm
GLOBAL LNG-Asian LNG prices at more than seven-month high amid supply issues

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com...supply-issues/

Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices rose this week as there were supply issues in Australia and the United States, while several buyers were looking for cargoes.
The average LNG price for October delivery into northeast Asia LNG-AS was estimated at $4.5 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), $0.45 per mmBtu above last week’s level, market sources said.
This is the highest price since late January, Reuters price assessment data showed.
After a previous two-month delay in restart of the Gorgon Train 2 due to maintenance works, Chevron Corp said on Thursday it would further delay the restart to October from early September. The facility at Australia’s second-largest LNG plant has been shut since May.
In the United States, hurricane Laura halted loadings at Cheniere Energy Inc’s Sabine Pass and Sempra Energy’s Cameron LNG export plants in Louisiana last week.
There were no loadings at these plants after Aug. 23, said Kaleem Asghar, director of LNG analytics at ClipperData on Friday.
“There are 16 ballast vessels in the Gulf of Mexico and feedgas supply remains zero to Sabine Pass and Sempra LNG terminal,” he said, adding that more vessels were sailing towards Corpus Christie and Freeport LNG terminals instead.
Some analysts expect U.S. LNG exports to rise later this month as fewer cargoes were cancelled for September than for the summer months.
“Departures should begin to trend higher over the next 10 days or so,” data intelligence firm Kpler said in a note on Friday.
In tenders, China’s Foran Energy was seeking a cargo for November delivery, while South Korea’s KOMIPO and India’s Reliance were seeking October delivery cargoes.
China’s Sinopec issued a tender for eight cargoes for delivery from November this year to March 2021, and awarded its 10-year tender to buy 1 million tonnes of LNG annually to Qatargas.
Russia’s Sakhalin 2 plant offered a cargo for October loading, Angola LNG was selling a cargo for delivery in September to October, while GAIL (India) offered cargoes from the U.S. Cove Point terminal for next year.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Ekaterina Kravtsova; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,720
  • Sep 8, 2020 5:06pm Sep 8, 2020 5:06pm
The most popular Natural Gas spread trading at this time is Dec-Oct spread:

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(Source: barchart.com)

Nov-Oct spread which I am holding now is not really popular for some reason.......
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
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