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Attachments: What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex
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What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

Quoting BWilliam
{quote} That's what my post describe the 2 types of bank traders. Following your story about your brother-in-law as your mentor, the extension means all bank traders are good mentors for retail traders ? I disagree with such a view, a no brainer. Perhaps your brother-in-law is one of the better traders. That's your private story that's got nothing to do with bank traders as a whole. Careful when you tell private stories on internet. Many other old thread OPs did such a similar thing.
Not sure what you are warning me about but sure ok lol

Bank Traders as a whole are pretty much all the same. They are no different than plumbers or electricians it is JOB why would the guy working at Citi bank do anything different than the guy working at Merrill.

You are not making any sense but the main reason I did not previously want to discuss my mentor is for this exact reason.

So this part of the conversation will end here or I will just ignore anyone wanting to push this part of the thread any further.
Back on the important topic of Dopamine Management. I think today I was "mostly" in control of the dopamine rushes. I did trade a lot again and scaled in and out counter-trend which I was not to happy about in hindsight BUT my morning analysis agreed with that thesis so I guess I did follow my trade plan effectively but it is so easy to look in hindsight and see that you were wrong and how much more money could have been made after the fact.

I did stop twice today to take a break and just try and "change" my mindset to get a clearer picture but I made the mistake of browsing this thread to do that and that only agitated me a little more so I took a short walk outside and that did help a lot.

Overall I would say today was 75% successful at managing the dopamine.

I am doing these types of posts because I want you guys to see that ...

I never take the dopamine management part of trading lightly. It is on my mind constantly!.
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Quoting CeeSo
Back on the important topic of Dopamine Management. I think today I was "mostly" in control of the dopamine rushes. I did trade a lot again and scaled in and out counter-trend which I was not to happy about in hindsight BUT my morning analysis agreed with that thesis so I guess I did follow my trade plan effectively but it is so easy to look in hindsight and see that you were wrong and how much more money could have been made after the fact. I did stop twice today to take a break and just try and "change" my mindset to get a clearer picture...
Congrats man...good profits
The impossible is possible
Selling gbpaud..only trading reversals from now on...today was a urine fest
The impossible is possible
@CeeSo will you ever reveal how you trade? You are doing good and at least the way you talk about it seems pretty "simple and straight forward".

If not thank you for your contribution.
Quoting fx11trade
@CeeSo will you ever reveal how you trade? You are doing good and at least the way you talk about it seems pretty "simple and straight forward". If not thank you for your contribution.
No sorry I can't because of an NDA and respect for my mentor but I stand by my statement that you guys don't need me to teach you to trade most of you already know enough about how to trend and counter-trend trade.

I will tell you that I paid a lot of money for courses before my mentor and the stuff based around market profile and order flow were the only things I personally found useful. Out of the 15 or so courses I bought totaling maybe $18,000 to $20,000 only 2 of them were worth what I paid for them and the rest were worth 1/10th of what I paid for them.

I do not want to get into bashing specific fake gurus in this thread because the internet usually finds out who is a fake guru pretty quick but I won't lie and say I would love to bash these guys and also tell you the ones I found useful but it would change the entire direction of this thread and bring it way off-topic.
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} No sorry I can't because of an NDA and respect for my mentor but I stand by my statement that you guys don't need me to teach you to trade most of you already know enough about how to trend and counter-trend trade. I will tell you that I paid a lot of money for courses before my mentor and the stuff based around market profile and order flow were the only things I personally found useful. Out of the 15 or so courses I bought totaling maybe $18,000 to $20,000 only 2 of them were worth what I paid for them and the rest were worth 1/10th of...
I don’t think many understand what you are trying to show. I trade futures and always try to catch a home run. Recently I decided to take profit more often at 1:1 or 1:1.5 and have been doing a lot better. And the frequency distribution has helped further to show where I should be looking to get out rather than hold on. Thanks
Expecting gbpaud to drop to 1.8020 Thur/Fri
The impossible is possible
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} I warned earlier that this thread was going off-topic too much and if people insist on debating me about simple factual math I would be ignoring them. I did not invent the numbers nor are they my opinion they are just numbers that I collected and anyone else can collect.
Was he talking off-topic? It could have been the start of a meaningful conversation about quant/statistical research regarding probabilities...
* This guy has also been providing some insightful information

---

And what about the rest?

Quoting CeeSo
{quote} Congrats Guys ^^^ That is what I wanted this thread to be based around. Traders helping traders with the real problems we face. I have already demonstrated with facts (see the stats below) that retail traders are very capable of making profits BUT we all suffer from dopamine cravings and we do not manage that dopamine very well with big losses and if we can work together to find the answers to solve this big problem we will find the real gold in this thread. {image} {image}
Sorry, but such FXCM data is actually very misleading. It may be a "good enough" sample for you, but it's only from one broker. I mean, is it externally audited at all? From what period of time (I think it's already old)?

The overall average percentage of "winning traders" that is often publicly mentioned and "known" by many, isn't including any longer term data than 6-12 months, hence many of these "outliers" in reality turn out becoming net-losers and then disappearing after some months.

And as you know, trade exits are as important (if not more) than entries; so again talking about statistics, if we additionally consider the average profit/loss (which of course you also pasted) of those marvelous shown retail win-ratios, practically all the end-results finish into negative territory. Statistically, if the avg. profitable trades grew in relation to losses, the win-ratios would proportionally decrease (there's an irrefutable mathematical balance in that).

Hi Ceeso, dopamine is very difficult to control and I suppose thats why traders get the big bucks. I was told rightly or wrongly that there is an algo for banks to control price. The problem banks had in the past is they used to get clipped. Which basically means hedge funds etc used to move money from bank to bank making money on the spread. The algo now controls the inter bank rate - which maybe has a 20 point spread making it more difficult for the banks to get clipped. The only information I have on the algo is the maximum time it runs is 30 mins and is also turned off for big news events. How the algo works and its boundaries seams to be a guarded secret. I'm a newbie so apologies for the chart - promise the last one I will post.
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In case anyone finds it useful:

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Quoting Londonpip60
Hi Ceeso, dopamine is very difficult to control and I suppose thats why traders get the big bucks. I was told rightly or wrongly that there is an algo for banks to control price. The problem banks had in the past is they used to get clipped. Which basically means hedge funds etc used to move money from bank to bank making money on the swaps. The algo now controls the inter bank rate - which maybe has a 20 point spread making it more difficult for the banks to get clipped. The only information I have on the algo is the maximum time it runs is 30...
Nah this isn’t true.

Nor is it true that algos alone cause big sell offs. When Hedge Fund algos sell intensely, MM’ers providing liquidity have an imbalanced book and have to hedge with... selling (mostly in futures markets) and that’s what causes big drops.

What CeeSo said previously is accurate. And every IB uses Kelly.

Apologies for previous tiffs, not sure why there was a clash but it’s nice to see someone actually helping out.

Couldnt keep my big mouth shut. :-)
CeSoo, I never thought the market moves, as you described here. What you represent, it is a great soulution to my trade managment, thanks a lot for that!!!

Have a nice day!
Quoting birdland
{quote} i dont know which broker and pair you traded, but with EU 40 lots should be no problem in the hours from london open to close.
Lol doesn't matter. Point is it happens which is why they have the bulk ordering. Even during London I'd rather just have the bulk order than have the possibility of the slippage, which is the point of the example. That there is a more advanced way for market execution.
The best strategy is a profitable one.
Quoting Viktory
In case anyone finds it useful: https://youtu.be/_vcGF3HqZXg https://youtu.be/9QiE-M1LrZk

This is the type of information I would really like this thread to be focused on and not the stats so much. The stats are important but as I have said several times now they are not a trading method they are just boundaries to creating your own trading method.
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I was looking forward to this conversation. As usual it gets silenced quickly.
I don't know how many times I keep telling you guys I am not going to be discussing how I personally use the data other than I do not use it as support and resistance but rather a road map of boundaries. So yeah I do not wish to debate it or discuss it. I put it out there and if you can find a use for it great if not sorry you don't have to keep reading the thread

I will gladly discuss Money Management and Dopamine addiction because these are the other big topics that I am not restricted to discuss and in my personal opinion I think until traders deal with these 2 topics the data itself will be of limited use.

I once paid a trader $5000 to sit beside him for a week. He was very good and he made money the week I sat beside him. I went home and tried to emulate his style and proceeded to lose $25,000 the next month.

WHY?

Because my money management and my dopamine management skills were horrible but I kept lying to myself and saying it was the system that was broken not me. I was running around like a mad man looking for the best way to trade and willing to pay any price. Little did I know I could have become profitable just by hiring a Cognitive Psychologist for $100/session and 10 sessions.

I am not saying entry technics are not important of course they are but till you deal with the Dopamine Addictions first the rest is just a waste of time.
[quote=AnRan;13143531]{quote} There is no crappy price. i like this word crappy. But, have you ever tried to fill 40 lots on a live account? I have, you get crazy slippage. And I'm talking like you buy long and your price is filled 15-30 pips above. When your institutional get above those ranges, you'll have something called bulk ordering, its a tech that happens behind the scenes for larger players that may still use MT4 for market execution. But I highly doubt anyone here is producing a yard in volume in just a few trades {quote}

Hi, I am just curious, if someone reaches that level - trading 40 lots, how do you then fill in the order? I also am curious about other trade risks and subsequently management that I am not aware of currently.
Thanks beforehand.
Quoting wizardblue
{quote} Have you looked at the probability of price returning to the open price from hitting each level on the same day? Does each pair have a different probability for each day of the week? Its happened today on a few EURUSD, AUDUSD,USDCAD. I wonder what the probability of the same thing happening to GBPUSD today is?
You mean Doji ??
Quoting PadiC
{quote}Hi, I am just curious, if someone reaches that level - trading 40 lots, how do you then fill in the order? I also am curious about other trade risks and subsequently management that I am not aware of currently. Thanks beforehand.
It gets a little complicated but there would be a total change in the way your order is processed compared to the ECN route. You would find a regulated broker with DMA (direct market access) and then they would give you a FIX API.

Here is one method for example. 1. They'd still give you MT4 login credentials, but the broker would have your MT4 hooked up to Fortex 5. And you'd get separate credentials for a Fortex 5 login. You'd still use MT4 but there would be no commissions, fees, or swaps in MT4 cause the actual execution isn't happening in MT4. It allows you to order MUCH larger positions because it's DMA, and a big benefit is you end up with your swap being netted. For example, if i had 50 lots long on EURUSD and another 50 lots short on EURUSD, my swap would be zero. Cause the currency exposure itself is cancelled out. Not like with retail a long can be +2$ and a short is -10$ or something. (I'm not looking, its just for example). This is also how large hedge funds/institutional funds can still use MT4 automated systems, and do it secretly as well as it can all be done under the brokers omnibus account. This isn't expensive either, having $25k USD is usually enough to qualify for this route these days. You just need to find a broker with a deep enough liquidity pool. I know 2 or 3 but I won't advertise it. Quick search and I'm sure you can find one. On a side note, you can not use this route if you have a MAM/PAMM, that's why bulk ordering helps with ECN.

You can also just break the order up. So if its 40, open 15, 15, 10. So if you had a risk of 0.50%, just open 2 trades for 0.25% with the same SL/TP.

And last but not least! Your trades size. No matter what size your account, it should be based on your risk, not your profit. I'm not discussing risk:reward, success rate, or any of that cause people have a very binary view of trading on these forums. But you should know what is the max amount your risking before you open each trade. That is also how you scale it once it becomes large enough. Something like account balance (or equity) % risk SL in points not pips. So if you had 1 million dollars x 1% risk, you're risking 10k dollars, if your stop loss was 40 pips away you'd divide 10000/400=25 lots. Larger or smaller SL would change the position size, but never the total risk of the trade. And as my teacher said to me, there is always a reason to move your SL, just don't!

I don't know what stage you're in on your trading journey, but I created a simple utility in mql5 market called Risk Assist pro, and it's free (i've mentioned it before on here). There are others on the market just like it. But for me, it was what I wanted/needed in my trades.
The best strategy is a profitable one.
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} By money management I take it to mean the lot sizing for each trade signal. Use a simple conservative lowest percentage, example 0.01%, 0.1% or 1% of balance. Use a fix preset stop loss and take profit in whatever format that suits your risk tolerance. Code this in a trade manager with input variable options. Armed with this trade manager you don't have to make any live market discretionary decisions. By dopamine addiction means you executed trades outside your rules. If you have conducted extensive research you set rules to follow. Why...
when price hit .75% open both buy and sell, that make me wonder.
And you are pointing out the fact directly.
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