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Your and My Lessons Learned Losing and Gaining in Trading 5 replies

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Attachments: What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex
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What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

Quoting DrDave
{quote} OK, so why are you even on ForexFactory then??? Oh, right. You are trying to help all of the poor lost souls here before they waste time and money on a hopeless endeavor. How philanthropic of you.
The thing is that people are really pissed off and you really can't blame them. They have been sold so much snake oil by fake youtube gurus and lost so much money chasing Rainbows and Lollipops.

Math cuts through all of that. 95% of the real professionals in this market do not even use charts lol.

When I say professionals I do not mean guys like us. I am talking about the people that get paid salaries and move tens of millions of dollars in orders each day.

Guys like this. Do you see any charts on his screens?
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Quoting alphaomega
If you still think that you can beat this market in the long run, then you haven't learned anything!
Well, and what about you; after all your intensive testing, profound analysis, great tools and automation?
Quoting CeeSo
95% of the real professionals in this market do not even use charts lol. When I say professionals I do not mean guys like us. I am talking about the people that get paid salaries and move tens of millions of dollars in orders each day. Guys like this. Do you see any charts on his screens? {image}
Tbf these are non-directional traders whose job is to execute orders on behalf of their clients.

The percentage of directional prop traders are much reduced.
Trade the value
On gbpusd if you look at the statistics - there's an 85% chance price will go from s1 to s2 or r1 to r2 on fibancie pivot points - not a bad tool. This has been checked from April. what does surprise me with this tool - how many traders actually use it. I can only think its popularity comes from the ability to put on different time frames and the levels remain the same. most indicators change depending on time frame. I was very surprised how good this tool is.
Quoting Londonpip60
On gbpusd if you look at the statistics - there's an 85% chance price will go from s1 to s2 or r1 to r2 on fibancie pivot points - not a bad tool. This has been checked from April. what does surprise me with this tool - how many traders actually use it. I can only think its popularity comes from the ability to put on different time frames and the levels remain the same. most indicators change depending on time frame. I was very surprised how good this tool is.

But whats the probability for each of those % levels for price returning to the Daily Open. As it just has today. EURUSD and AUSUSD took the early lead and GBPUSD has joined the party.
Ceeso - please don't get upset with this chart
I have attached a chart - the most reliable thing on the chart are the top of the blue boxes. But if you wanted to trade into those boxes then r1 to r2 has 85% success rate. The stats. for price coming back into the Asian range is probably 50% to 60%
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 15 minutes.png DOTTED BOXES.png Size: 173 KB
Banks and big companies has rules. And traders in most cases just can't violate them, because of hardcoded limits/restrictions.
That's why that "levels" works. Because let's say there is a rule "if price >0.5% up from daily open / London open / US open then sell only". Banks will not sell on uptrend and buy on downtrend.

For me the biggest problem was to filter fake signals. CeeSo approach gave me a very good clean picture. As an example don't trade zero+-0.25%. The accuracy rise!

For those who blame CeeSo and keep asking for proofs... you just don't know how to use it. It is like he gave you a spoon, but you are trying to chop wood with it.

Ceeso, please do not ruin the thread, just don't reply to trolls. There are a lot of great guys here! It will be helpful to discuss ideas around your approach!
Observer effect
Quoting ryuryu
Banks and big companies has rules. And traders in most cases just can't violate them, because of hardcoded limits/restrictions. That's why that "levels" works. Because let's say there is a rule "if price >0.5% up from daily open / London open / US open then sell only". Banks will not sell on uptrend and buy on downtrend. For me the biggest problem was to filter fake signals. CeeSo approach gave me a very good clean picture. As an example don't trade zero+-0.25%. The accuracy rise! For those who blame CeeSo and keep asking for proofs... you just...
so now the USD cross tumble down, does it means that banks are taking profit????? or some MM is trying to trap seller in cahoot with the banks.
think about it
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I'm not concerned about the win and lose,
but the number of trades required to get the job done or undone.
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Tbf these are non-directional traders whose job is to execute orders on behalf of their clients. The percentage of directional prop traders are much reduced.

So you think it does not matter if an institutional trader gets an order from their supervisor to fill 100,000 million dollars long USD and they get a crappy price?

Make no mistake. These traders get huge salaries and bonuses to get the best prices possible.
Quoting Londonpip60
Ceeso - please don't get upset with this chart I have attached a chart - the most reliable thing on the chart are the top of the blue boxes. But if you wanted to trade into those boxes then r1 to r2 has 85% success rate. The stats. for price coming back into the Asian range is probably 50% to 60% {image}

Why would I get upset?

As long as you have statistical facts that you can back up with evidence you are doing everything that I am discussing in this thread.

If you can't back it up with actual data that is another story.
Quoting ryuryu
For those who blame CeeSo and keep asking for proofs... you just don't know how to use it. It is like he gave you a spoon, but you are trying to chop wood with it. !
Hahaha!, that is funny and a very accurate analogy.

No matter how many times I say not to they are going to try and use the levels as support and resistance.

The levels are just telling you a story about the context of the current price, not giving you a trade but they will never see this they all want to be told how, why, and when to get into the market.

I am more interested in when NOT to get into the market
Looks like it's time to buy eurusd again...very close stop loss
The impossible is possible
Quoting Teerexteerex
Looks like it's time to buy eurusd again...very close stop loss
Looking to hit 1.207...fingers crossed
The impossible is possible
Quoting CeeSo
So you think it does not matter if an institutional trader gets an order from their supervisor to fill 100,000 million dollars long USD and they get a crappy price? Make no mistake. These traders get huge salaries and bonuses to get the best prices possible.
I don't think my post said that.

Retail traders give too much credit to bank traders. One fact of the banking industry is the attrition rate of such bank traders is much higher compared to other jobs. One of the main reason is boring job with no prospect for career advancement. Not meeting targets is a big reason too. If anyone have spoken to bank insiders he will discover it's not that pretty as retail traders paint it. This "professional" image given to bank traders to mean superior traders is misleading. To my knowledge most of these traders are clueless pertaining to directional trading matters. Imho. You may disagree.

Big fat salaries and bonuses. That sounds more like wolf of Wall Street movie. Check with the local banks you get a much different real picture.

Real traders check the facts then update themselves when wrong to improve themselves always where being wrong is normal with this industry - there's no pride or shame for being right or wrong, no prize to win and they don't get paid for being right about industry facts. They don't argue especially on forums. They learn such conduct and attitude from their hands on trading experience with the market. That's the sign of true real traders.
Trade the value
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} So you think it does not matter if an institutional trader gets an order from their supervisor to fill 100,000 million dollars long USD and they get a crappy price?
There is no crappy price. i like this word crappy. But, have you ever tried to fill 40 lots on a live account? I have, you get crazy slippage. And I'm talking like you buy long and your price is filled 15-30 pips above. When your institutional get above those ranges, you'll have something called bulk ordering, its a tech that happens behind the scenes for larger players that may still use MT4 for market execution. But I highly doubt anyone here is producing a yard in volume in just a few trades
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}Retail traders give too much credit to bank traders. One fact of the banking industry is the attrition rate of such bank traders is much higher compared to other jobs. One of the main reason is boring job with no prospect for career advancement. Not meeting targets is a big reason too. If anyone have spoken to bank insiders he will discover it's not that pretty as retail traders paint it. This "professional" image given to bank traders to mean superior traders is misleading. To my knowledge most of these traders are clueless pertaining to...
B.Williams is on point here. I actually had a student who use to work at Merrill-Lynch. Banks are mostly focused on the prime brokerage side of things, meaning liquidity. No reason for the house to really gamble against itself. Sure, they do some training, pay for series 52, 56 or 57 license, but you need to produce 1 million USD in capital to the bank by end of your first year or you're out. Second, their trading department was producing such small profits they couldn't even pay out the margins at the end of the year, hes right when he says they are clueless. Forex isn't a centralized market like futures, not everything goes through ECN. You can have STP/DMA or even MFT. All these things move price. It's not like stocks (or futures) where level 2 or 3 order flow is beneficial to see who is sitting on 100k shares cause it isn't a centralized market.

Institutional like CMG group, if they even trade FX, I know they are heavy in ETF and equities, but for example, those play a bigger role than banks. But even they are trading billions. FX is 6 trillion a day. There are so many moving pieces, just focus on getting an edge where ever it is, not focus blame banks or hedge funds.
The best strategy is a profitable one.
Wow...usd is winning rn
The impossible is possible
Quoting AnRan
There are so many moving pieces, just focus on getting an edge where ever it is, not focus blame banks or hedge funds.
If retail traders blame banks and hedge funds for their losses, who do banks and hedge funds prop traders blame?

That's why this smart money vs dumb money narrative is nonsense. MM hunting retail stop loss is another nonsense. Yes we know MM shed against our trades in the fills, slippage and the widening of spreads do happen. There are cases in court of malpractice. But not at the scale suggested.
Trade the value
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} I have already proved with stats (see my previous post of 12 million trades at FXCM ^^) most traders can beat the market with a better than 51% win ratio across all pairs and as high as 70% on AUDNZD. Beating yourself is what 90% of us struggle with. That is why I want this thread to be focused on emotional/brain chemistry management vs trading techniques.
Hi CeeSo,

Just wondering why you blocked one of the very few most knowledgeable and honest FF members still active on the forum, before at least checking out his profile and valuable contributions over time (also backed by statistics, as you like).

Only for expressing a different opinion in one little post? Come on, constructive discussions with good feedback is what we need here...

Quoting CeeSo
{quote} Congrats Guys ^^^ That is what I wanted this thread to be based around. Traders helping traders with the real problems we face. I have already demonstrated with facts (see the stats below) that retail traders are very capable of making profits BUT we all suffer from dopamine cravings and we do not manage that dopamine very well with big losses and if we can work together to find the answers to solve this big problem we will find the real gold in this thread. {image} {image}
Sorry, but such FXCM data is actually very misleading. It may be a "good enough" sample for you, but it's only from one broker. I mean, is it externally audited at all? From what period of time (I think it's already old)?

The overall average percentage of "winning traders" that is often publicly mentioned and "known" by many, isn't including any longer term data than 6-12 months, hence many of these "outliers" in reality turn out becoming net-losers and then disappearing after some months.

And as you know, trade exits are as important (if not more) than entries; so again talking about statistics, if we additionally consider the average profit/loss (which of course you also pasted) of those marvelous shown retail win-ratios, practically all the end-results finish into negative territory. Statistically, if the avg. profitable trades grew in relation to losses, the win-ratios would proportionally decrease (there's an irrefutable mathematical balance in that)

---

And to the people debating about "bank traders":
Well, it's clearly a misused/ambiguous general term here. And there are other institutions besides banks.

Btw, the level of mathematics used by retail traders has nothing to do with what Jim Simons (and alike) can achieve while teaming with other actual brilliant scientists (decades or even centuries of combined experience and productivity), also working with virtually unlimited infrastructure, computational power and much deeper "insider information". So please, don't even dream to come close in your entire lifetimes.

Do we actually have any professional TOP-tier mathematician/physicist/computer scientist playing the same game here?

Cheers!
Quoting Viktory
Do we actually have any professional TOP-tier mathematician/physicist/computer scientist playing the same game here? Cheers!
I would not be surprise there are well qualified anonymous people who are not directly engaged in the finance industry who looked at forex prices then try figure a solution model. Creativity flows best when there's no expectation or pressure to produce creations. Whether they are active on public forums like this idk. I won't be surprise they do look at available sources to initiate ideas. And forum is one such source.

At the same time those who are visibly active on forums engaged mostly about day to day trading won't spend time and effort to research and explore such new breakthrough frontier ideas. Their ideas are mostly adapted from what's already posted on the Internet which is mostly primitive in nature.

In this context, there are no great traders. There is only great ideas.
Trade the value
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