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What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

  • #961
  • Aug 31, 2020 3:45am Aug 31, 2020 3:45am
Quoting Ah-Ong
The Data speak. Suppose your analysis shows that EURUSD going to go down today and you try to sell it. Now price open & goes up to 0.20% (below 0.25%), from the chart below if your sell it, your probability for the price to close bearish today shall be 75.42% out of 118 bearish days (or 34.23% out of 1 year) . If the price goes up to 0.30% (beyond 0.25% below 0.50%), your probability for the price to close bearish today will drop to 17.80% out of 118 bearish days (or 8.08% out of 1 year). You may consider...
ah ok, now i understand you correct. really nice what you have done, thx!
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #962
  • Aug 31, 2020 5:27am Aug 31, 2020 5:27am
Quoting Ah-Ong
{quote} Another way round, price open & goes up didn't pass 0.25% & goes down & close bearish the probability is 75.42% out of 118 bearish days or 34.23% out of 1 year. price open & goes up pass 0.25% but didn't pass 0.50% & goes down & close bearish the probability is 17.80% out of 118 bearish days or 8.08% out of 1 year.
yeah but you only know it "won't cross 0.25 levels" at the close of the day, then it's too late to enter any trade
  • #963
  • Edited 11:29am Aug 31, 2020 11:06am | Edited 11:29am
Quoting Ah-Ong
The Data speak. Suppose your analysis shows that EURUSD going to go down today and you try to sell it. Now price open & goes up to 0.20% (below 0.25%), from the chart below if your sell it, your probability for the price to close bearish today shall be 75.42% out of 118 bearish days (or 34.23% out of 1 year) . If the price goes up to 0.30% (beyond 0.25% below 0.50%), your probability for the price to close bearish today will drop to 17.80% out of 118 bearish days (or 8.08% out of 1 year). You may consider...
There you go! That is the right way to think.

Does it mean you are always going to be right and make money? Hell no but you are successfully building probabilities into YOUR trading style.

That was not so hard now was it guys? I did not have to teach you how to trade, to teach you how to use stats to your advantage

I will let the fake gurus tell you how you should get into the market and I will remain focused on the important big picture concepts.


Going forward I am just going to put any trolls on ignore so we can keep this thread constructive and on track.
  • #964
  • Aug 31, 2020 11:16am Aug 31, 2020 11:16am
Today was a sh!t show for me I over traded like complete Numpty I find Monday mornings tend to be days when I do this more than other days probably because I am just out of practice from the weekend. To combat this I am making a note to replay more trades on Monday mornings BEFORE I live trade. So basically getting up 30 mins earlier to prepare better.

On a positive note, I was pretty aware of the dopamine rushes as they were happening and I did manage to get up and take a break and do some grounding exercises to help me get control and mitigate the losses today.

I am not too upset right now because I followed my morning trade plan and it just did not work out. The biggest problem was I had too many pairs that were signaling trades and I took all of them but they were all legitimate trades so it is not like I revenged traded or anything dumb like that.

So I lost money today but this day is 50% winner and 50% loser because of the above reasons ^^
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  • #965
  • Aug 31, 2020 12:10pm Aug 31, 2020 12:10pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Better solution is don't trade at all on Monday mornings.
At least wait for London noon time... otherwise:

I heat up, I can't cool down
You got me spinning
'Round and 'round
'Round and 'round and 'round it goes
Where it stops nobody knows
  • #966
  • Aug 31, 2020 2:11pm Aug 31, 2020 2:11pm
Anyone made the excel spreadsheet that could kindly share? Not the greatest with excel. Much appreciated
  • #967
  • Aug 31, 2020 2:39pm Aug 31, 2020 2:39pm
Quoting CeeSo
Today was a sh!t show for me I over traded like complete Numpty I find Monday mornings tend to be days when I do this more than other days probably because I am just out of practice from the weekend. To combat this I am making a note to replay more trades on Monday mornings BEFORE I live trade. So basically getting up 30 mins earlier to prepare better. On a positive note, I was pretty aware of the dopamine rushes as they were happening and I did manage to get up and take a break and do some grounding exercises to...
You said that you followed your trade plan but recognize what is the biggest problem. So, that means you have now added (or reduced) a limit on the number of trades that you have open, right?
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #968
  • Aug 31, 2020 3:10pm Aug 31, 2020 3:10pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} You said that you followed your trade plan but recognize what is the biggest problem. So, that means you have now added (or reduced) a limit on the number of trades that you have open, right?
I don't like to be overexposed to too much USD. I had 4 USD pairs that all signaled trades for me all around the same time of the morning within 10 mins of each other. I don't mind 2 pairs but 4 is a bit too much. I also had an EJ trade working.

Typically I will just select what I think is "the best" pair of the USD pairs and trade 1 maybe 2 at most. The dopamine got the better of me today because I saw so many really good setups and took them all. It is crazy how dopamine can trick you when you are not watching yourself and your emotions carefully.

On a good day, I can manage it better and I would have just selected one trade but that is why today was a failure. The good news was that I realized the failure of having so much exposure to the USD "during the dopamine rush" and was able to reduce my number of trades with minimal damage by quickly exiting the extra pairs.

I remember thinking to myself at the time of the triggers. "Wow, the USD should really have a strong bounce today with so many of my filters signaling longs. I am going to make a boatload of money today".

That is how my mind tricked me to get that damn dopamine hit BUT once I saw I was wrong and prices moved against me I was able to get up from my screen and walk away for a few minutes and do some breathing.

When I came back I had calmed down the dopamine enough to get out of the trades. I did not hesitate or wait for stops to get hit I just exited and minimized the damage. That is why I say today was 50% successful because the loss could have easily been 2 or 3x more.


  • #969
  • Aug 31, 2020 11:57pm Aug 31, 2020 11:57pm
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} I don't like to be overexposed to too much USD. I had 4 USD pairs that all signaled trades for me all around the same time of the morning within 10 mins of each other. I don't mind 2 pairs but 4 is a bit too much. I also had an EJ trade working. Typically I will just select what I think is "the best" pair of the USD pairs and trade 1 maybe 2 at most. The dopamine got the better of me today because I saw so many really good setups and took them all. It is crazy how dopamine can trick you when you are not watching yourself and your emotions...
It looks like you identified what went wrong and even gave a hint for how to modify your trade plan. "Typically I will just select what I think is "the best" pair of the USD pairs and trade 1 maybe 2 at most."

So there you have it: Put into your trade plan to open only 1 (or 2) trades on a pair.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #970
  • Sep 1, 2020 12:53am Sep 1, 2020 12:53am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} 1 because 2 means you double your bets on this one signal.
That decision is up to him. Perhaps he has no problem with 2x expisure.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #971
  • Sep 1, 2020 1:32am Sep 1, 2020 1:32am
Quoting CeeSo
Today was a sh!t show for me I over traded like complete Numpty I find Monday mornings tend to be days when I do this more than other days probably because I am just out of practice from the weekend. To combat this I am making a note to replay more trades on Monday mornings BEFORE I live trade. So basically getting up 30 mins earlier to prepare better. On a positive note, I was pretty aware of the dopamine rushes as they were happening and I did manage to get up and take a break and do some grounding exercises to...
yesterday was a GBP bank holiday. i tend to walk away on these days or reduce trading a lot.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #972
  • Sep 1, 2020 7:03am Sep 1, 2020 7:03am
Quoting Tuk786
Anyone made the excel spreadsheet that could kindly share? Not the greatest with excel. Much appreciated
never mind. Got there in the end. NQ futures seem to range between -+1.25 82% of the time.
  • #973
  • Sep 1, 2020 9:13am Sep 1, 2020 9:13am
Quoting birdland
{quote} yesterday was a GBP bank holiday. i tend to walk away on these days or reduce trading a lot.

Yes, I completely agree the volatility and low liquidity was definitely an issue. I did have that in the back of my mind so that is another negative strike for me ignoring that fact.

Today I followed my plan and went to bed and woke up earlier so I could do more chart replays and condition myself for the day a little better.

I did trade a lot but the context called for it today and it was just on the two pairs I thought had the best probabilities. So today I will call a big victory not because I made money but because I was able to trade in the right context, follow my early morning trade plan and manage the dopamine effectively.

My Challenge is coming along nicely and I hope to pass this week but still, I have lots of time left.
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  • #974
  • Sep 1, 2020 9:36am Sep 1, 2020 9:36am
Quoting Ah-Ong
The Data speak. Suppose your analysis shows that EURUSD going to go down today and you try to sell it. Now price open & goes up to 0.20% (below 0.25%), from the chart below if your sell it, your probability for the price to close bearish today shall be 75.42% out of 118 bearish days (or 34.23% out of 1 year) . If the price goes up to 0.30% (beyond 0.25% below 0.50%), your probability for the price to close bearish today will drop to 17.80% out of 118 bearish days (or 8.08% out of 1 year). You may consider...

Have you looked at the probability of price returning to the open price from hitting each level on the same day? Does each pair have a different probability for each day of the week?

Its happened today on a few EURUSD, AUDUSD,USDCAD. I wonder what the probability of the same thing happening to GBPUSD today is?
  • #975
  • Sep 1, 2020 9:38am Sep 1, 2020 9:38am
If you still think that you can beat this market in the long run, then you haven't learned anything!
  • #976
  • Sep 1, 2020 9:41am Sep 1, 2020 9:41am
after a very long time being here, i now already beating the market with only 500usd in cent account
  • #977
  • Sep 1, 2020 10:15am Sep 1, 2020 10:15am
Quoting alphaomega
If you still think that you can beat this market in the long run, then you haven't learned anything!
I have already proved with stats (see my previous post of 12 million trades at FXCM ^^) most traders can beat the market with a better than 51% win ratio across all pairs and as high as 70% on AUDNZD.

Beating yourself is what 90% of us struggle with.

That is why I want this thread to be focused on emotional/brain chemistry management vs trading techniques.
  • #978
  • Sep 1, 2020 10:27am Sep 1, 2020 10:27am
Quoting alphaomega
If you still think that you can beat this market in the long run, then you haven't learned anything!
OK, so why are you even on ForexFactory then???

Oh, right. You are trying to help all of the poor lost souls here before they waste time and money on a hopeless endeavor. How philanthropic of you.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #979
  • Sep 1, 2020 10:35am Sep 1, 2020 10:35am
keep going @CeeSo
  • #980
  • Sep 1, 2020 10:37am Sep 1, 2020 10:37am
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} I don't like to be overexposed to too much USD. I had 4 USD pairs that all signaled trades for me all around the same time of the morning within 10 mins of each other. I don't mind 2 pairs but 4 is a bit too much. I also had an EJ trade working. Typically I will just select what I think is "the best" pair of the USD pairs and trade 1 maybe 2 at most. The dopamine got the better of me today because I saw so many really good setups and took them all. It is crazy how dopamine can trick you when you are not watching yourself and your emotions...
Haha...made the same mistake yesterday tbh....USD was supposed to be rising yesterday...just happened today.
I ignored my stoploss zone with usdchf and let the trade run lower.
Eurchf, audchf moving right...still watching usdchf...any lower and I close with little profit
The impossible is possible
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