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What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

  • #941
  • Aug 30, 2020 11:49am Aug 30, 2020 11:49am
You just have to stay dedicated in this game.
After a couple of years running in circles i have been able to find my own edge

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Iman...k-fund/6843457
  • #942
  • Edited 12:35pm Aug 30, 2020 12:05pm | Edited 12:35pm
Quoting SunSaltwater
{quote} CeeSo, not sure why you keep posting inaccurate information. Not sure if it is intentional or by accident. The actual numbers are in green below between .5 and -.5. You keep including the .75 amount. 67 and 68% is BIG difference between 85%. Again, there may be value in your information and this thread. But the 85% number is very misleading, it is much less than this regardless of what time frame used. {image}
You are correct it is 67 and 68% on the AUD (I was tired when I wrote that post and I rarely trade the AUD) but you still seem to be missing the most important part of what I have been saying. I told you I was generalizing when I said 85% of the time and you have to do each market individually.

also .10% one way or the other is not going to make that much of a difference to me because for the 100th time ... I keep saying ...

THESE ARE NOT SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS.


Everyone keeps thinking these are some sort of exact entry levels when in fact they are just boundaries.

I have also said 10 times now that you can not use tight stops in forex because of the randomness so why would I care to be "exactly" precise.

If I was trading $TSLA I would make money on it because I would statistically know the approximate frequency distribution ranges are 3.5% to 1%


Everyone keeps showing up here for some entry and exit trading system and if the discussion keeps going down this path I am just going to close the thread. As a matter of fact I would like to close the thread but support does not seem to be responding to my question of how do do that. I am presenting big picture concepts that the retail space is missing and that changed my trading results from night to day, not specific trading systems. If you can't understand that then just leave the thread.
  • #943
  • Aug 30, 2020 12:31pm Aug 30, 2020 12:31pm
CeeSo and BWilliam,

I know this is not meant to be a trading system or used as support and resistance - I never claimed this at any point.

The fact is accuracy does matter when you are presenting something. To claim a broad 85% is wrong, there is a big difference between 67% and 85%. "Exact numbers is not important.".....sorry, details and accuracy does matter.....where would the line be drawn, 55% v. 85%, 45% v. 85%, 35% v. 85%.......do you see what I am getting at?

Again, I see value in the information provided in this thread, just wish more accurate details were originally provided and that moving forward the details are more accurate.

I have no interest in going back and forth on this. Good luck.

Cheers
  • #944
  • Aug 30, 2020 12:51pm Aug 30, 2020 12:51pm
Quoting SunSaltwater
CeeSo and BWilliam, I know this is not meant to be a trading system or used as support and resistance - I never claimed this at any point. The fact is accuracy does matter when you are presenting something. To claim a broad 85% is wrong, there is a big difference between 67% and 85%. "Exact numbers is not important.".....sorry, details and accuracy does matter.....where would the line be drawn, 55% v. 85%, 45% v. 85%, 35% v. 85%.......do you see what I am getting at? Again, I see value in the information provided in this thread, just wish more accurate...
I will try and answer this because I see you are genuinely trying to understand the use of this.

IF I was using the levels as exact support and resistance for entries you would be right you would want to know precisely the percentages but because I have repeatedly said that if you tried to do that you would get away with it for a little while but on days like Friday when we go into the lower percentile trending moves that occur 30 to 10% of the time "depending on the pair". You will just give back too much profit.

The levels are best used as a FRAME for where is the price right now? and what are the probabilities it can go to X Y or Z and if I were to take a trade at price right now (within the frame) what are the best probabilities for me to place my stop levels?.

I hope that helps
  • #945
  • Aug 30, 2020 1:50pm Aug 30, 2020 1:50pm
As of Friday, here are the standard deviations up to Wednesday for the Euro and the Pound futures

Pound futures -(7.68% vol)
1.3254 -1.3434 -68%
1.3165- 1.3525 -95%

EURUSD (futures) (7.40% vol)

1.1817 - 1.1972-68%
1.1741 - 1.2049- 95%
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #946
  • Aug 30, 2020 2:27pm Aug 30, 2020 2:27pm
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} The levels are best used as a FRAME for where is the price right now? and what are the probabilities it can go to X Y or Z and if I were to take a trade at price right now (within the frame) what are the best probabilities for me to place my stop levels?. I hope that helps
CeeSo, I'm following with interest and understood this from the beginning, not sure why people are not seeing the big picture and the value of your posts.
So, you triggered an haha moment for me, and finally put back my coder hat I neglect for a long time, currently using R to plot some statistical evidence, its obvious it will help my trading immensely to know where Price is regarding past history in a more statistical approach. thank you !
  • #947
  • Aug 30, 2020 3:43pm Aug 30, 2020 3:43pm
Quoting Ah-Ong
{quote} Percentage gain within -0.75% mean total no of days which price travel from open price to low of the day is within 0.75% Below is the logic behind it. {image}
Thank you Ah-Ong for this indicators, I find it very useful, please can you develop the functionality to include weekly and monthly and user defined period(so that its not limited to 1 year).

Regards.
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #948
  • Aug 30, 2020 7:03pm Aug 30, 2020 7:03pm
Quoting Tragruel
{quote} CeeSo, I'm following with interest and understood this from the beginning, not sure why people are not seeing the big picture and the value of your posts. So, you triggered an haha moment for me, and finally put back my coder hat I neglect for a long time, currently using R to plot some statistical evidence, its obvious it will help my trading immensely to know where Price is regarding past history in a more statistical approach. thank you !
Quants are the future. Welcome back
  • #949
  • Aug 30, 2020 7:28pm Aug 30, 2020 7:28pm
Quoting lordgbengs
{quote} Thank you Ah-Ong for this indicators, I find it very useful, please can you develop the functionality to include weekly and monthly and user defined period(so that its not limited to 1 year). Regards.
Just change the total bars to be tested.
1 year = 52 weeks x 5 days = approx. 260 bars
3 month = 3 x 4 weeks x 5 days = approx. 60 bars
Attached Image
  • #950
  • Aug 30, 2020 7:33pm Aug 30, 2020 7:33pm
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} Quants are the future. Welcome back
Jim Simons also uses mathematic and data in their fund trading.
  • #951
  • Aug 31, 2020 12:41am Aug 31, 2020 12:41am
A small bug fixed from previous version at https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post13138824

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Statistic - Open HiLo Percent Gain.ex4   18 KB | 680 downloads
  • #952
  • Aug 31, 2020 12:44am Aug 31, 2020 12:44am
Quoting Ah-Ong
{quote} Just change the total bars to be tested. 1 year = 52 weeks x 5 days = approx. 260 bars 3 month = 3 x 4 weeks x 5 days = approx. 60 bars {image}
Thank you.
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #953
  • Aug 31, 2020 1:09am Aug 31, 2020 1:09am
Quoting SunSaltwater
{quote} CeeSo, not sure why you keep posting inaccurate information. Not sure if it is intentional or by accident. The actual numbers are in green below between .5 and -.5. You keep including the .75 amount. 67 and 68% is BIG difference between 85%. Again, there may be value in your information and this thread. But the 85% number is very misleading, it is much less than this regardless of what time frame used. {image}
I have the same stats
the mean is around 70% not 85% for any pair on D1
on other TFs it doesn't work at all
  • #954
  • Aug 31, 2020 1:29am Aug 31, 2020 1:29am
A very informative post indeed. I must say that I apply the generale rule, test small. I test with small accounts before taking more risk in terms of the account size. Additionally I work with EA's only so there is no emotion attached and the strategies are executed without mistakes. And offcourse they are also executed 24/5 which can't be done manually.

I like these kind of post since there are always hidden gems inside!
  • #955
  • Edited 3:32am Aug 31, 2020 2:36am | Edited 3:32am
Another indicator that may be useful.

The indicator calculates how much retracement for the price goes down before it goes up and closes Bullish.

My own definition :
Negative Retracement before close Bullish --> Price Open and retrace negative (Go DOWN) then come UP & close Bullish.
Negative Retracement before close Bearish --> Price Open and retrace negative (Come UP) then go DOWN & close Bearish.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 48 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Statistic - Negative Retracement.ex4   21 KB | 590 downloads
  • #956
  • Aug 31, 2020 2:53am Aug 31, 2020 2:53am
Quoting Ah-Ong
Another indicator that may be useful. The indicator calculates how much retracement for the price goes down before it goes up and closes Bullish. My own definition : Negative Retracement before close Bullish --> Price Open and retrace negative (Go DOWN) then come UP & close Bullish. Negative Retracement before close Bearish --> Price Open and retrace negative (Go UP) then come DOWN & close Bearish. {image}{file}
does that mean in 75,42% cases the EU goes first -0.25% and close then in positive territorium? and when it goes to -0.50% then in only 17.80% cases it will close positive?
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #957
  • Aug 31, 2020 3:09am Aug 31, 2020 3:09am
The Data speak.

Suppose your analysis shows that EURUSD going to go down today and you try to sell it.
Now price open & goes up to 0.20% (below 0.25%), from the chart below if your sell it, your probability for the price to close bearish today shall be 75.42% out of 118 bearish days (or 34.23% out of 1 year) .

If the price goes up to 0.30% (beyond 0.25% below 0.50%), your probability for the price to close bearish today will drop to 17.80% out of 118 bearish days (or 8.08% out of 1 year). You may consider getting out to prevent further loss.

If the price goes up beyond 0.51% and below 0.75% and you try to sell it to hope the price will close bearish today, then you are insane. Coz the probability to close bearish today is only 5.93% out of 118 bearish days (or 2.69% out of 1 year).

I hope the above example is clear. Please let me know if I am wrong.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 93 KB
  • #958
  • Aug 31, 2020 3:17am Aug 31, 2020 3:17am
Quoting Ah-Ong
Another indicator that may be useful. The indicator calculates how much retracement for the price goes down before it goes up and closes Bullish. My own definition : Negative Retracement before close Bullish --> Price Open and retrace negative (Go DOWN) then come UP & close Bullish. Negative Retracement before close Bearish --> Price Open and retrace negative (Go UP) then come DOWN & close Bearish. {image}{file}
Nice contribution.

Now there are statistics that can help with setting a stop loss.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #959
  • Aug 31, 2020 3:18am Aug 31, 2020 3:18am
Quoting birdland
{quote} does that mean in 75,42% cases the EU goes first -0.25% and close then in positive territorium? and when it goes to -0.50% then in only 17.80% cases it will close positive?
Another way round,
price open & goes up didn't pass 0.25% & goes down & close bearish the probability is 75.42% out of 118 bearish days or 34.23% out of 1 year.
price open & goes up pass 0.25% but didn't pass 0.50% & goes down & close bearish the probability is 17.80% out of 118 bearish days or 8.08% out of 1 year.
  • #960
  • Aug 31, 2020 3:29am Aug 31, 2020 3:29am
Quoting CeeSo
As a matter of fact I would like to close the thread but support does not seem to be responding to my question of how do do that. I am presenting big picture concepts that the retail space is missing and that changed my trading results from night to day, not specific trading systems. If you can't understand that then just leave the thread.
It would be a shame to see this thread die. Why not let it stay for anyone who wishes to follow through with your ideas. That said most threads die when the OP leaves them. You being the only one who can moderate it.

To answer your question though, this will show what support does: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...arters-request
Good Trading
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