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What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

  • #861
  • Aug 27, 2020 11:54pm Aug 27, 2020 11:54pm
I'm happy I finally developed a technique that gives me over 80percent success rate. Backtested well enough and have been using it close to 2 months now. Took me 1 year of rigorous work and a lot of my money to get here.

I agree fully with lot management. You never want to overtrade.
My personal advice for anyone reading is to trade price action, snub indicators and so-called experts, and aim for precision trading. Different techniques work for different people but I personally cannot deal with seeing my metatrader flashing red negative trade balance, so my entry is usually on point. If it goes beyond then I close with tiny loss. I NEVER use a 2:1 profit to loss margin or any margin/ratio at all.
Trading fun when you are constantly making the right trades. If it doesn't feel like that keep researching. I am always hungry to know more I think that is the right attitude.
That being said, I'm still trying to get the news trading trick. It seems news just brings in volume doesn't really matter if it's good or bad news the market goes where technical analysis points towards. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong

Cheers
The impossible is possible
  • #862
  • Aug 28, 2020 12:18am Aug 28, 2020 12:18am
Hi CeeSo, thank you for posting valuable info. Could you please enlighten us more on how to use Frequency Distribution Statistics in deciding stop loss as you mentioned earlier?
  • #863
  • Aug 28, 2020 12:21am Aug 28, 2020 12:21am
Quoting Teerexteerex
I'm happy I finally developed a technique that gives me over 80percent success rate. Backtested well enough and have been using it close to 2 months now. Took me 1 year of rigorous work and a lot of my money to get here. I agree fully with lot management. You never want to overtrade. My personal advice for anyone reading is to trade price action, snub indicators and so-called experts, and aim for precision trading. Different techniques work for different people but I personally cannot deal with seeing my metatrader flashing red negative trade balance,...
Whats the sample size you backested on? And what is your risk to reward ratio? Cause I don't believe you can be right 80 percent in picking the direction of the market.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #864
  • Aug 28, 2020 12:36am Aug 28, 2020 12:36am
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Whats the sample size you backested on? And what is your risk to reward ratio? Cause I don't believe you can be right 80 percent in picking the direction of the market.
hahaha, you are trying to squeeze info out of him. 80% is possible. He apparently has been fortunate enough to figure it out. Don't expect him to spill the beans.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #865
  • Aug 28, 2020 1:32am Aug 28, 2020 1:32am
Quoting here2there
{quote} hahaha, you are trying to squeeze info out of him. 80% is possible. He apparently has been fortunate enough to figure it out. Don't expect him to spill the beans.
Spill what beans? I am not asking for what his strategy is. My experience is that systems that are too good to be true, are exactly that. Usually the sample size is small.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #866
  • Aug 28, 2020 1:58am Aug 28, 2020 1:58am
Quoting Teerexteerex
I'm happy I finally developed a technique that gives me over 80percent success rate. I NEVER use a 2:1 profit to loss margin or any margin/ratio at all. Trading fun when you are constantly making the right trades. If it doesn't feel like that keep researching. I am always hungry to know more I think that is the right attitude. That being said, I'm still trying to get the news trading trick. It seems news just brings in volume doesn't really matter if it's good or bad news the market goes where technical analysis points towards. Feel free...
FINALLY, I see someone on FF besides me that understands that R:R is a highly overrated trade management technique!
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #867
  • Aug 28, 2020 3:54am Aug 28, 2020 3:54am
Quoting LDFX
{quote} Kelly criterion, really ?! Haven’t you started this thread saying how you lost 300k and therefore how money management, dopamine rush, psychology, the randomness of the market and how winners/losers are distributed randomly (risk of ruin) are of most importance? Yet you strictly go against it by putting forward the absolute gambling theory that is Kelly criterion, which has no place in trading.
there are successful traders/investors using Kelly. what would you say is better way to manage risk? arbitrary %?
  • #868
  • Aug 28, 2020 3:57am Aug 28, 2020 3:57am
Quoting here2there
{quote} hahaha, you are trying to squeeze info out of him. 80% is possible. He apparently has been fortunate enough to figure it out. Don't expect him to spill the beans.
well that's fair. he made it clear from very beginning that he is not here to share the strategy.
  • #869
  • Edited 7:34am Aug 28, 2020 7:04am | Edited 7:34am
I am impressed with what Ceeso has shown.
Knowing that price 85% of the time will be between the two .5 levels is a big edge
As Ceeso says - context is King (so fundamentals, trapped traders etc... will give you context)
Really, you want context saying one thing - with price at the wrong end of the .5 or .25 level
This way you have both context and a level
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #870
  • Aug 28, 2020 7:32am Aug 28, 2020 7:32am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Here's the indicator for mt4 platform. {file}

thanks a for nice simple Indi.

Can you ADD W1 and M1 TF to it so either it works alone on D1, W1, M1 or all together with D1, W1, M1.

thank you
leacher
Time & Price Forecast - Jenkins
  • #871
  • Aug 28, 2020 7:40am Aug 28, 2020 7:40am
Cable sell at .5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable.png Size: 60 KB
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #872
  • Aug 28, 2020 8:30am Aug 28, 2020 8:30am
Quoting SFundamental
Cable sell at .5 {image}
I think that level is .87. Anyway careful end of month fix.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sWDEIxO.png Size: 68 KB

this percentage level trading had been going on for a long time in FF. In fact one of them who trade percentage level has just gone commercial recently.
  • #873
  • Aug 28, 2020 8:41am Aug 28, 2020 8:41am
Quoting SFundamental
Cable sell at .5 {image}
yes i think cable has different frequenzy distribution than EU. its more volatile. so you have to go through the process of testing back the frequency distribution like ceeso has done it.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #874
  • Aug 28, 2020 8:45am Aug 28, 2020 8:45am
So what time zone do you use for the end of the day
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #875
  • Aug 28, 2020 10:18am Aug 28, 2020 10:18am
Quoting SFundamental
Cable sell at .5 {image}
Didn't re-short it from there- as they pulled it back to the POC
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #876
  • Aug 28, 2020 10:21am Aug 28, 2020 10:21am
Quoting SFundamental
{quote} Didn't re-short it from there- as they pulled it back to the POC
now a better price to sell

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dGjNUfE.png Size: 49 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: WhezQQP.png Size: 68 KB

end of month, end of week
no trade for me
  • #877
  • Aug 28, 2020 11:00am Aug 28, 2020 11:00am
Quoting failinforex
{quote} now a better price to sell
NY at lunch.....but its been up there a while
Have take a small postion...but not much risk - only technical
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #878
  • Aug 28, 2020 11:25am Aug 28, 2020 11:25am
Quoting Teerexteerex
...
Very good summary and conclusion.

I agree, except for:
Quoting Teerexteerex
snub indicators and so-called experts
I use some indicators that help me to get a picture of the situation. Indicators that work on different time frames and that I understand! I do not follow any "arrow up=buy" or "sell alert!". But it took me a loooooong time to find the indicators that suits my trading style.

Same with expert advisors: I do not let my advisors run totally without control (anymore). Not anymore, because of some situation that suddenly appeared and blew my account. Not only once...
I then started to code my own advisors that help me with my trading style. Some automated things that I would have to do manually. My expert advisors are more helping hands rather than holy grail programs.

Happy green pips for all!
  • #879
  • Aug 28, 2020 11:29am Aug 28, 2020 11:29am
Quoting SFundamental
{quote} NY at lunch.....but its been up there a while Have take a small postion...but not much risk - only technical
Starting to move....10++ pips up
now at liquidity.

Stops beneath
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #880
  • Aug 28, 2020 11:33am Aug 28, 2020 11:33am
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Whats the sample size you backested on? And what is your risk to reward ratio? Cause I don't believe you can be right 80 percent in picking the direction of the market.
I don't understand what u mean by sample size, but I tested and use my technique on all currency pairs, 15min to 1day timeframe. I don't use ratio also. I enter at the right spot when price bounces off a support or resistance. There is little room for price to move.
If you trade Mondays and Fridays you will get many of those with good long profit...Thursdays are sometimes alright also. And yes over 80percent.
The impossible is possible
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