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Trading Institutional Order Flow

  • #8,801
  • Aug 26, 2020 5:34pm Aug 26, 2020 5:34pm
Quoting DavidKl
{quote} Hi Obiech, I hope you are good mate. You got the below choices: Monthly UP --> Weekly UP --> Price at Supply - Wait for the supply to be broken and see where are you in the new curve, if you are low to middle of the curve and the trend time frame is up you can start trading the fresh Weekly Demand levels. Monthly UP --> Weekly UP --> Price at Supply - Wait for the price to reach the monthly demand. This is how I would approach this kind of scenario, these would be most in your favour with trend. Thanks.

It would take years before price gets back to monthly demand tho
  • #8,802
  • Aug 26, 2020 5:35pm Aug 26, 2020 5:35pm
Quoting Obiech
{quote} Thank you for this How about if the monthly is up weekly is up but price is at all time highs and it hasn't closed above it. What's the best line of action
A similar scenario is happening now at cadchf monthly tf
  • #8,803
  • Aug 27, 2020 3:12am Aug 27, 2020 3:12am
Quoting Obiech
{quote} A similar scenario is happening now at cadchf monthly tf
Yeah it would.
  • #8,804
  • Aug 27, 2020 3:14am Aug 27, 2020 3:14am
Quoting Obiech
{quote} It would take years before price gets back to monthly demand tho
Maybe you should be thinking of changing the TF combination, M/W/D is more of a position trading.
  • #8,805
  • Aug 27, 2020 6:27am Aug 27, 2020 6:27am
long EURUSD 5min, this is basing it on USD supply
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
  • #8,806
  • Aug 27, 2020 9:34am Aug 27, 2020 9:34am
Entry timeframe odd enhancers

1. How did the price leave the level
a- strong (score 2)
b- medium (score 1)
c- weak (score 0)

2. Curve location
a- for demand ( low on the curve) score 2
b- in the middle (score 1)
c- high in the curve (score 0)
Vice versa for supply

3. Profit margin
a- 3:1 to opposing zone ( score 2)
b- 2:1 to opposing zone (score 1)
a- 1:1 (score 0)

4. Freshness
a- fresh level (score 2)
b- 1 return no more 25% penetration of the width of the zone ( score 1.5)
c- 1 return and penetration is 25 to 50% ( score 1)
d - 1 return but more than 50% penetration (score 0)

5. Time spend at the level
Less than 6 candles ( score 1)
more than 6 candles( score 0)

Ok guys this is the entry timeframe odds we need to consider, my question is what is the threshold score for a level to avoid trading?
  • #8,807
  • Aug 27, 2020 11:06am Aug 27, 2020 11:06am
Quoting Royal146
Entry timeframe odd enhancers 1. How did the price leave the level a- strong (score 2) b- medium (score 1) c- weak (score 0) 2. Curve location a- for demand ( low on the curve) score 2 b- in the middle (score 1) c- high in the curve (score 0) Vice versa for supply 3. Profit margin a- 3:1 to opposing zone ( score 2) b- 2:1 to opposing zone (score 1) a- 1:1 (score 0) 4. Freshness a- fresh level (score 2) b- 1 return no more 25% penetration of the width of the zone ( score 1.5) c- 1 return and penetration is 25 to 50% ( score 1) d - 1 return but more...

Personally, anything less than 8 I pass up. I've learned being REALLY picky with zones has helped my trading out a lot.
  • #8,808
  • Aug 27, 2020 1:09pm Aug 27, 2020 1:09pm
Quoting Masterquis
{quote} Personally, anything less than 8 I pass up. I've learned being REALLY picky with zones has helped my trading out a lot.
Awesome, Thanks. What is your timeframe sequences?
mine is D H4 H1, may I ask how many pairs do you trade?
  • #8,809
  • Aug 27, 2020 1:38pm Aug 27, 2020 1:38pm
Quoting Royal146
Entry timeframe odd enhancers 1. How did the price leave the level a- strong (score 2) b- medium (score 1) c- weak (score 0) 2. Curve location a- for demand ( low on the curve) score 2 b- in the middle (score 1) c- high in the curve (score 0) Vice versa for supply 3. Profit margin a- 3:1 to opposing zone ( score 2) b- 2:1 to opposing zone (score 1) a- 1:1 (score 0) 4. Freshness a- fresh level (score 2) b- 1 return no more 25% penetration of the width of the zone ( score 1.5) c- 1 return and penetration is 25 to 50% ( score 1) d - 1 return but more...
Привіт Royal146.
1. Level 1 - 5 points - Do not trade.
2. Level 6 - 7 points. You can log in with confirmation, or ignore.
3. Level 8 - 9 points. Put up a pending order.
I am sorry, i speak English a little bit
  • #8,810
  • Aug 27, 2020 2:42pm Aug 27, 2020 2:42pm
Hello guys, I'm a bit upset about the recent decisions that I've taken. I explain why.

I set a buy limit order on H1 EURJPY yesterday. and the reason I set the pending order was that.

Daily ( curve) was in a bullish consolidation. ( in consolidation we sell and buy at extremes)
H4 (the middle timeframe) created a WOW trade after hitting the daily demand and then breaking the descending trendline.
H1 (entry timeframe), a nested H1 level on the H4(wow) proximal line with a good departure. I set the limit order.

everything was OK until this afternoon I saw an OHCL candle under the H4 trendline. and I thought since the TL is broken on H4 ( and daily timeframe is consolidating) it's not safe to take the trade and I have to wait for the price to go to the Daily demand and there I lookup for buy. so I canceled the order.

but a couple of hours later the price exactly triggered the h1 zone and went up!!!

NOW I don't know, Did I make the correct decision after I saw this OHCL candle under the H4 trendline, was it a technical mistake or a psychological mistake?!

honestly, I canceled 2 great setups this week! on EURJPY and price went in my favor

Thank you

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  • #8,811
  • Aug 27, 2020 3:53pm Aug 27, 2020 3:53pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,812
  • Aug 27, 2020 5:42pm Aug 27, 2020 5:42pm
Quoting Royal146
{quote} Awesome, Thanks. What is your timeframe sequences? mine is D H4 H1, may I ask how many pairs do you trade?
No problem. We trade the same time sequence (D, H4, H1). Right now I trade 14 Pairs, and I'm finding that as long as I keep written notes on my charts of what I've analyzed and set alerts for when price is outside of my zones it really helps me to be able to just take action and feel confident in taking my trades.
  • #8,813
  • Aug 27, 2020 5:51pm Aug 27, 2020 5:51pm
Quoting Royal146
Hello guys, I'm a bit upset about the recent decisions that I've taken. I explain why. I set a buy limit order on H1 EURJPY yesterday. and the reason I set the pending order was that. Daily ( curve) was in a bullish consolidation. ( in consolidation we sell and buy at extremes) H4 (the middle timeframe) created a WOW trade after hitting the daily demand and then breaking the descending trendline. H1 (entry timeframe), a nested H1 level on the H4(wow) proximal line with a good departure. I set the limit order. everything was OK until this afternoon...

Without knowing your rules it's hard for me to tell whether this was a trade that should have been kept on or not. From what I'm seeing on your charts it looks like on the DAILY chart you had new Supply created from the break of the trend line as price went into DAILY Demand.

When price reacted at DAILY Demand it reached that newly formed Supply (It was very low quality Supply, but Supply nonetheless) which would have caused me to cancel the trade as well because the H4 Demand where you were proposing the trade wasn't nested inside of DAILY Demand like we would want in this type of situation.

It's looking to me that this was a cancellation of a low probability trade that just ended up beating the odds and working out.

If this is a part of your rules then good job on sticking to rules!
  • #8,814
  • Aug 27, 2020 11:50pm Aug 27, 2020 11:50pm
Quoting Masterquis
{quote} Without knowing your rules it's hard for me to tell whether this was a trade that should have been kept on or not. From what I'm seeing on your charts it looks like on the DAILY chart you had new Supply created from the break of the trend line as price went into DAILY Demand. When price reacted at DAILY Demand it reached that newly formed Supply (It was very low quality Supply, but Supply nonetheless) which would have caused me to cancel the trade as well because the H4 Demand where you were proposing the trade wasn't nested inside of DAILY...
Thank you very much, yeah I know new supply created on the daily after uptrend breaks, but that supply wasn't strong (stair step to me) also COT report that I take a look every week showed that EUR still is strong and bullish, so I think I bend the rules a little bit here. And I know in ranging market we have 2 options,
1 - we don't trade or
2- just confirmation type of trade in curve extremes high and low

This setup happened in the middle of the curve and fresh H4 demand after hitting the Daily demand (wow) created, adding this to other variables that EUR is still strong made me give this decision... But eventually I canceled the order!
  • #8,815
  • Aug 28, 2020 3:43am Aug 28, 2020 3:43am
Tried another short audnzd
Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
  • #8,816
  • Aug 28, 2020 4:27am Aug 28, 2020 4:27am
Quoting Royal146
Hello guys, I'm a bit upset about the recent decisions that I've taken. I explain why. I set a buy limit order on H1 EURJPY yesterday. and the reason I set the pending order was that. Daily ( curve) was in a bullish consolidation. ( in consolidation we sell and buy at extremes) H4 (the middle timeframe) created a WOW trade after hitting the daily demand and then breaking the descending trendline. H1 (entry timeframe), a nested H1 level on the H4(wow) proximal line with a good departure. I set the limit order. everything was OK until this afternoon...

Can I ask you a question that I have noticed other people doing when drawing horizontal boxes/lines?

You draw your levels out in the right places, but you don't go into timeframes to find the actual level, why is that? The hole idea of finding supply and demand is to find the fresh supply or demand. Sometimes these fresh levels are not there when you look on a LTF and it won't be a credible level, and it won't be a level for you to take... You get my idea....... Even the pros here make their levels the same way with out going into price structure. Your missing half the story. You not looking for fresh levels. Just curious


Daily what it looks like. It's fine to mark out the highs and lows
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But going into lower time frames, 2 hour chart shows it very clearly
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And 15min also shows it nicley.
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Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
  • #8,817
  • Edited 6:01am Aug 28, 2020 5:34am | Edited 6:01am
Quoting joe123
{quote} Can I ask you a question that I have noticed other people doing when drawing horizontal boxes/lines? You draw your levels out in the right places, but you don't go into timeframes to find the actual level, why is that? The hole idea of finding supply and demand is to find the fresh supply or demand. Sometimes these fresh levels are not there when you look on a LTF and it won't be a credible level, and it won't be a level for you to take... You get my idea....... Even the pros here make their levels the same way with out going into price...
Actually I do top down analysis every single time, D-H4-H1 also I look for fresh levels (it's the highest odd) at the time (yesterday London session) H4 made a HH and descending trend line breaks, that zone (wow) was the level I had an eye on it,
I can go lower than H1, but that's not my plan!

I didn't understand what was your sequence here?

This is the sequence for intraday trading, H4, H1, 15m
Or H1 15m 5m.
  • #8,818
  • Aug 28, 2020 7:56am Aug 28, 2020 7:56am
Good day fellow trades

I got questions please


The monthly is on a down trend and price is at monthly supply, so I used wow trade confirmation as entry. The green zone marked above is the monthly zone. When price got to the zone, it dropped, broke daily uptrendline and formed 2 daily supplies. The 2 supplies has been tested now, but after testing the upper supply, it broke trendline again and formed a 3rd supply. That is the supply price is getting close to. So the question is if I can still trade this 3rd supply. The daily downtrend is now broken

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  • #8,819
  • Aug 28, 2020 8:01am Aug 28, 2020 8:01am
Also was it right to sell that upper supply( 2nd supply) since the lower supply(1st) was already tested and the daily trendline broken
  • #8,820
  • Aug 28, 2020 8:02am Aug 28, 2020 8:02am
A similar scenario is this. Price got to the monthly zone the first time, dropped and formed 2 supplies, of which both has been tested already, then it got back to the monthly zone, reacted again broke up trendline and took out demand and formed 2 supplies on it's way down. The first supply was tested successfully and price has gotten to the upper supply. Of which it is reacting now. I had a sell order there but u deleted it because I wasn't sure. Was I right to delete it since price has already reacted to the lower supply and the daily trendline is broken

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