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What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

  • #841
  • Aug 26, 2020 8:19pm Aug 26, 2020 8:19pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} ...The devotees and cheerleaders caused the most harm. They act in moblike unison to protect the "guru" and attack anyone who disagrees or post a different point of view. This delinquent mob caused the death of discussion on forums, they are the real guilty party. I'm sure you've experience it on this forum...
I know exactly what you are talking about as I have been attacked on multiple occasions in this way. And the guys and gals with the red badge can pretty much get away with all kinds of bad behavior on here. It's a really screwed up place.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #842
  • Aug 27, 2020 3:10am Aug 27, 2020 3:10am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} The devotees and cheerleaders caused the most harm. They act in moblike unison to protect the "guru" and attack anyone who disagrees or post a different point of view.
CeeSo started the thread. There are 43 pages now and only few with trades and stats from other traders. All the 99% is about "prove you strategy" and "market is unpredictable" shit.

Last 5 pages are about "market is magic". Where are your stats? Did you tried the approach? No. You are all too lazy to create indicator, ea, to try the strategy and give a feedback. It is pretty simpler to talk about big banks manipulations yeaah...

I think you all should try the strategy and share your stats. Or leave the thread. Your baby crying other the thread just make a useless noise.
Observer effect
  • #843
  • Aug 27, 2020 4:18am Aug 27, 2020 4:18am
Thanks Seeco
  • #844
  • Aug 27, 2020 4:22am Aug 27, 2020 4:22am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Thanks for the clarification. Tbh I share a similar view. But my experience with this forum taught me that the real problem is not the misinformer, scammers, manipulators and charlatans. The devotees and cheerleaders caused the most harm. They act in moblike unison to protect the "guru" and attack anyone who disagrees or post a different point of view. This delinquent mob caused the death of discussion on forums, they are the real guilty party. I'm sure you've experience it on this forum. If you observe carefully there exist such mobs that...
I agree groupies generate the Guru. Without groupies no Guru. It is a symbiotic behaviour.
  • #845
  • Aug 27, 2020 5:11am Aug 27, 2020 5:11am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} CeeSo started the thread. There are 43 pages now and only few with trades and stats from other traders. All the 99% is about "prove you strategy" and "market is unpredictable" shit. Last 5 pages are about "market is magic". Where are your stats? Did you tried the approach? No. You are all too lazy to create indicator, ea, to try the strategy and give a feedback. It is pretty simpler to talk about big banks manipulations yeaah... I think you all should try the strategy and share your stats. Or leave the thread. Your baby crying other the...
Spot on! I think CeeSo is the one indulging them. My question about the strategy has been largely ignored by CeeSo while responding and trying to prove a point.

If you understand statistics and probability you will understand the edge that lies in what CeeSo has shared. I think CeeSo should focus more on the development of this thread than responding to Thomases.
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #846
  • Aug 27, 2020 7:18am Aug 27, 2020 7:18am
guys ... but have you seen CEESO's operations? but is it possible that few do the hard work of examining? the trades made by CEESO are very clear .. only able to criticize ... constructive collaboration is required ..
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  • #847
  • Edited 7:43am Aug 27, 2020 7:32am | Edited 7:43am
Quoting lordgbengs
{quote} Spot on! I think CeeSo is the one indulging them. My question about the strategy has been largely ignored by CeeSo while responding and trying to prove a point. If you understand statistics and probability you will understand the edge that lies in what CeeSo has shared. I think CeeSo should focus more on the development of this thread than responding to Thomases.
To be honest I would just prefer this thread dies completely. I shared everything that I have to share and the only thing left that I feel is important to share is just my final results from the challenge when I complete it. The only reason I will even do that is just to give "hope" or proof of concept to those struggling that if you take the big lessons that I had to learn (the hard way) into your processes and journey that you too may be able to turn your trading around and become profitable.

I repeat this thread was never about me teaching people how to trade.

I don't know if this thread was useful or not but no one is forced to read it and I only did it because I thought it might help a few people. I thought it might be sort of cathartic for me and it may help me feel a little better about myself if I shared these lessons with some struggling traders.

There is a saying "no good deed goes unpunished" maybe that will be the case with this thread but I don't think so. I have literally 50 private messages from people thanking me for sharing my journey and saying this thread has helped them immensely. So unless people have more questions (unrelated to my specific trading process) I think my job is done here.

  • #848
  • Aug 27, 2020 8:20am Aug 27, 2020 8:20am
Kelly Criterion management is new to me. I've sussed out most of it; the one area eluding me is coming up with a reasonable probability number. Can anyone offer guidelines? Clearly I think my edge gives me a greater than 50% probability; but that seems unsatisfactory. Thanks!
  • #849
  • Aug 27, 2020 9:11am Aug 27, 2020 9:11am
When the Ego enters through the door, Man jumps out the window ...
When the ego enters through the window, men go down the ladder ...

The history of man repeats itself ... nothing new under the sun ...

Hello Ceeso and everyone , I dont know if you are a prosperous trader, I do not know if you sell smoke, I do not know if you want to deceive those you can, I do not know who you are, or what you do ... the truth is that I dont know anything about you. .. and the fact is that I do not consider it necessary to know, unless I am/feel a bit lazy...

After a little work, I find it interesting to invest a little more time in what has been presented here, to "incorporate" it to my strategy (in principle as targets, as has already been said)...

So regardless of everything, I don't know about you or your intentions, or whether what is presented here will be usefull for me, but I can't be more than grateful for your time and generosity...

Thank you very much and regards

fex
Newbie trader
  • #850
  • Aug 27, 2020 9:45am Aug 27, 2020 9:45am
Quoting fex
When the Ego enters through the door, Man jumps out the window ... When the ego enters through the window, men go down the ladder ... The history of man repeats itself ... nothing new under the sun ... Hello Ceeso and everyone , I dont know if you are a prosperous trader, I do not know if you sell smoke, I do not know if you want to deceive those you can, I do not know who you are, or what you do ... the truth is that I dont know anything about you. .. and the fact is that I do not consider it necessary to know, unless I am/feel a bit lazy... After...
Perfect
  • #851
  • Aug 27, 2020 9:49am Aug 27, 2020 9:49am
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} To be honest I would just prefer this thread dies completely. I shared everything that I have to share and the only thing left that I feel is important to share is just my final results from the challenge when I complete it. The only reason I will even do that is just to give "hope" or proof of concept to those struggling that if you take the big lessons that I had to learn (the hard way) into your processes and journey that you too may be able to turn your trading around and become profitable. I repeat this thread was never about me teaching...
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Salute to you SIR.
Can only thankyou for taking time out to publish this thread.
Its a GOLD MINE for those who understand clues.
kindly continue to post valuable suggestions as and when you have time.

regards
leacher
Time & Price Forecast - Jenkins
  • #852
  • Aug 27, 2020 9:51am Aug 27, 2020 9:51am
Quoting oradba
Kelly Criterion management is new to me. I've sussed out most of it; the one area eluding me is coming up with a reasonable probability number. Can anyone offer guidelines? Clearly I think my edge gives me a greater than 50% probability; but that seems unsatisfactory. Thanks!

This is what a Kelly Criterion Spreadsheet should look like. It should adjust your trade size based on your previous trades results.

The basics = When you are losing trades trade smaller, when you are winning trades trade bigger but it must be done accurately to avoid Risk of Ruin. you can find the exact formulas for the calculations online I presume. Sorry I can not share mine.
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  • #853
  • Aug 27, 2020 11:23am Aug 27, 2020 11:23am
My mentor also swears by probabilities in everything he trades and teaches. It was a large part of trading in Prop apparently. I created my first Excel spreadsheet yesterday to recreate the distribution, I just need to work out a way of improving the pivot table format now.

Is anyone on here clever enough to update the TradingView script with an input parameter (Bool) to toggle the lines for "Current Day" or All Days, my charts are currently looking very cluttered? I tried the "Show Last" parameter with no success. I know this is possible as I have the feature on another indicator but its protected so I cant see the code.

Wiz
  • #854
  • Aug 27, 2020 11:28am Aug 27, 2020 11:28am
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} To be honest I would just prefer this thread dies completely. I shared everything that I have to share and the only thing left that I feel is important to share is just my final results from the challenge when I complete it. The only reason I will even do that is just to give "hope" or proof of concept to those struggling that if you take the big lessons that I had to learn (the hard way) into your processes and journey that you too may be able to turn your trading around and become profitable. I repeat this thread was never about me teaching...
I guess I mis-understood your intent, apologies. Its more of a journal to you than talking strategy development, if you close down the thread today, you will be remembered for your good contribution and part of good traders who have passed through FF. Thank you for the clarification. Again, thanks for sharing your perspective.
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #855
  • Aug 27, 2020 12:05pm Aug 27, 2020 12:05pm
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} I have literally 50 private messages from people thanking me for sharing my journey and saying this thread has helped them immensely. So unless people have more questions (unrelated to my specific trading process) I think my job is done here.

Thank you Ceeso for this thread... been struggling since 2016.
  • #856
  • Aug 27, 2020 5:26pm Aug 27, 2020 5:26pm
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} This is what a Kelly Criterion Spreadsheet should look like. It should adjust your trade size based on your previous trades results. The basics = When you are losing trades trade smaller, when you are winning trades trade bigger but it must be done accurately to avoid Risk of Ruin. you can find the exact formulas for the calculations online I presume. Sorry I can not share mine. {image}
Don't forget to bet atmost 1/2 of Kelly, I use 1/3 which is 5% per trade. The market sequence of wins and losses are not randomly distributed like Kelly suggest. Winning and losing clusters. Cheers
When you see it, BET big.
  • #857
  • Edited 7:32pm Aug 27, 2020 6:50pm | Edited 7:32pm
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} This is what a Kelly Criterion Spreadsheet should look like. It should adjust your trade size based on your previous trades results. The basics = When you are losing trades trade smaller, when you are winning trades trade bigger but it must be done accurately to avoid Risk of Ruin. you can find the exact formulas for the calculations online I presume. Sorry I can not share mine. {image}
Kelly criterion, really ?!

Haven’t you started this thread saying how you lost 300k and therefore how money management, dopamine rush, psychology, the randomness of the market and how winners/losers are distributed randomly (risk of ruin) are of most importance?

Yet you strictly go against it by putting forward the absolute gambling theory that is Kelly criterion, which has no place in trading.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #858
  • Aug 27, 2020 6:53pm Aug 27, 2020 6:53pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} CeeSo started the thread. There are 43 pages now and only few with trades and stats from other traders. All the 99% is about "prove you strategy" and "market is unpredictable" shit. Last 5 pages are about "market is magic". Where are your stats? Did you tried the approach? No. You are all too lazy to create indicator, ea, to try the strategy and give a feedback. It is pretty simpler to talk about big banks manipulations yeaah... I think you all should try the strategy and share your stats. Or leave the thread. Your baby crying other the...
What strategy?

Are you calling levels based on 0.25/0.5/0.75/1% a strategy?

Then you must be very naïve and no wonder why you get angry at those doubting it.

If the thread starter came up with fib levels of 23.6/50/78.6/100% or atr levels of 25/50/75/100%, you probably wouldn’t be here, while what is the difference ? And this is why you call it a strategy that allows you to disregard any criticisms ?

You are the one narrow minded, not the other way around.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #859
  • Aug 27, 2020 7:05pm Aug 27, 2020 7:05pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Don't forget to bet atmost 1/2 of Kelly, I use 1/3 which is 5% per trade. The market sequence of wins and losses are not randomly distributed like Kelly suggest. Winning and losing clusters. Cheers
5% per trade !?

I wonder how much maximum drawdown you have had so far in the last few years...
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #860
  • Aug 27, 2020 9:56pm Aug 27, 2020 9:56pm
Quoting LDFX
{quote} 5% per trade !? I wonder how much maximum drawdown you have had so far in the last few years...
So far 30%, in the last 3.5 years, sample size about 500 trades. But I m expecting one day to get hit with 50% drawdown. Which I m perfectly fine with. I have a good job so I don't rely on trading to make a living. I really don't care that much what my account does. Cheers!
When you see it, BET big.
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