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What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

  • #801
  • Aug 25, 2020 10:15pm Aug 25, 2020 10:15pm
Quoting AnRan
{quote} Everyone has their own way of trading but I'm just curious. You are using a strength meter, that is showing the % of daily change, to trade the 1 minute chart??? Are you actually profitable doing this, long term? Like 6 to 18 months?
that is just part of my system
  • #802
  • Aug 25, 2020 10:28pm Aug 25, 2020 10:28pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} The numbers indicate GBP is weaker than USD. Therefore, we should be looking to sell GBPUSD. However, if the main trend for the pair is bullish on the Daily, then we should avoid selling the pair until currency strength is in line with the main trend. Trading against the trend is usually a bad idea.
Not a bad idea at all trading against the trend.
Just let it establish a direction first before trading against any extended movements in the same direction. That way you have thin liquidity protection your position.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #803
  • Aug 25, 2020 11:37pm Aug 25, 2020 11:37pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Not a bad idea at all trading against the trend. Just let it establish a direction first before trading against any extended movements in the same direction. That way you have thin liquidity protection your position. Cheers
Well, that's why I said 'usually'. Some people are really good at trading both directions. Perhaps you are one of those people. As for me, I haven't had much success trading against the trend.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #804
  • Aug 25, 2020 11:58pm Aug 25, 2020 11:58pm
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} Thanks, I just found about FTMO a few weeks ago and was very surprised these even existed. I had a few problems with them so far but from all the research they "seem" to be legit. Time will tell. I will check into those other two but if they are good I will join them for sure. It has been a very slow grind back but now that I am very confident in my process I will be wanting to maximize my returns.
hi mate, have been seeing good reviews regarding FTMO as well, but can you post your experience in time to come? let us know if they are really legit
  • #805
  • Aug 26, 2020 12:54am Aug 26, 2020 12:54am
Quoting CeeSo
So by now many of you have seen just how random day trading is but did you know that swing trading was not a heck of a lot better? Here are the weekly Frequency Distributions over a 4 year period. That is right folks this market barely moves plus or minus 2% a WEEK. {image}
@CeeSo, you missed out on this question.


Thank you for this. Which currency is this and how do you determine your time period for analysis? @CeeSo
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #806
  • Aug 26, 2020 1:44am Aug 26, 2020 1:44am
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1598368224
Goodmorning everyone,
Ceeso .... if you really posted gold, did you analyze the trades it made? you can easily see the trades in the posts highlighted these days ...
areas of daily congestion, therefore the probable extensions at the top or at the bottom ... obviously I take into consideration the daily percentages 0.25-0.50 etc ..
post other ideas ..
guys let's study ... we can do it !!
  • #807
  • Aug 26, 2020 8:43am Aug 26, 2020 8:43am
Today I was able to manage my dopamine better there were only 2 trades and I was able to wait for good entries and patiently managed the trades right. I wish I could bottle days like today but even sometimes like yesterday when you "think" you have your triggers in control you really get taken by surprise.

After studying the subject at great lengths and trying so many things from hypnosis to cognitive therapy (all of it helps) I have just come to the conclusion.

I am an addict and I must take it one day and one trade at a time. I can not take anything for granted and must monitor myself and my triggers constantly.

I am not posting these trades to get anyone's approval or an ego rush. I found yesterday that it was very therapeutic to post and write out my feelings and results around the lack of good dopamine management so in that spirit I am posting these results. As I write this post one of the long trades that I closed with-profits just made a big push and now I am feeling like maybe I was not so good at controlling my dopamine levels today
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  • #808
  • Aug 26, 2020 8:58am Aug 26, 2020 8:58am
Quoting CeeSo
Today I was able to manage my dopamine better there were only 2 trades and I was able to wait for good entries and patiently managed the trades right. I wish I could bottle days like today but even sometimes like yesterday when you "think" you have your triggers in control you really get taken by surprise. After studying the subject at great lengths and trying so many things from hypnosis to cognitive therapy (all of it helps) I have just come to the conclusion. I am an addict and I must take it one day and one trade at a time. I can not take anything...
Same here Ceeso, am an addict too.
How about a rule based systematic approach based on statistcal edge where there is less discretionary involves?
on a postive roll...
  • #809
  • Aug 26, 2020 8:59am Aug 26, 2020 8:59am
Quoting CeeSo
and now I am feeling like maybe I was not so good at controlling my dopamine levels today
I set sell stops this morning and went to work. When I came back everything was good and not too much dopamine ;-)

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Good that I wasn't in front of the screen at that moment...

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  • #810
  • Aug 26, 2020 9:08am Aug 26, 2020 9:08am
Quoting CeeSo
Today I was able to manage my dopamine better there were only 2 trades and I was able to wait for good entries and patiently managed the trades right. I wish I could bottle days like today but even sometimes like yesterday when you "think" you have your triggers in control you really get taken by surprise. After studying the subject at great lengths and trying so many things from hypnosis to cognitive therapy (all of it helps) I have just come to the conclusion. I am an addict and I must take it one day and one trade at a time. I can not take anything...
I am getting to the point where I believe the Forex market is a losing game for the retail trader. It almost seems like an elaborate ponzi. Sure, you win some, but then you end up giving most of it back to the brokers. I believe the randomness in the market is there intentionally. It's there to take your money. It's probably better to trade stocks.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #811
  • Aug 26, 2020 9:09am Aug 26, 2020 9:09am
Quoting Rmg
{quote} Same here Ceeso, am an addict too. How about a rule based systematic approach based on statistcal edge where there is less discretionary involves?

Congrats Guys ^^^

That is what I wanted this thread to be based around. Traders helping traders with the real problems we face. I have already demonstrated with facts (see the stats below) that retail traders are very capable of making profits BUT we all suffer from dopamine cravings and we do not manage that dopamine very well with big losses and if we can work together to find the answers to solve this big problem we will find the real gold in this thread.
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  • #812
  • Aug 26, 2020 9:17am Aug 26, 2020 9:17am
Quoting here2there
{quote} I am getting to the point where I believe the Forex market is a losing game for the retail trader. It almost seems like an elaborate ponzi. Sure, you win some, but then you end up giving most of it back to the brokers. I believe the randomness in the market is there intentionally. It's there to take your money. It's probably better to trade stocks.
You are very right about this fact but do you know why?

Stocks have very different mathematical frequency distributions. This is the SNP 500 and you can see it moves much more than the forex distributions. Some stocks like TSLA even have average moves of 3 to 4% daily.

That being said with those larger moves it is much easier to blow your account faster!!

The problem is NOT the market you are trading. The problem is that you do not understand the market you are trading and you are not managing yourself and your risk with a deep contextual understanding of your market.
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  • #813
  • Aug 26, 2020 9:38am Aug 26, 2020 9:38am
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} Congrats Guys ^^^ That is what I wanted this thread to be based around. Traders helping traders with the real problems we face. I have already demonstrated with facts (see the stats below) that retail traders are very capable of making profits BUT we all suffer from dopamine cravings and we do not manage that dopamine very well with big losses and if we can work together to find the answers to solve this big problem we will find the real gold in this thread. {image} {image}
According to those two charts, traders with poor results should be trading AUDJPY--it is very close to a coin flip both for win/loss and profit/loss. So if you can find a slight winning edge, your coin flip turns into profitable.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #814
  • Aug 26, 2020 9:40am Aug 26, 2020 9:40am
Quoting CeeSo
The problem is NOT the market you are trading. The problem is that you do not understand the market you are trading and you are not managing yourself and your risk with a deep contextual understanding of your market. {image}
Print it and read it daily as part of your prep routine.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #815
  • Aug 26, 2020 10:04am Aug 26, 2020 10:04am
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} The problem is that you do not understand the market you are trading and you are not managing yourself and your risk with a deep contextual understanding of your market. {image}
Can chaos be understood?

I think the real problem is there is no such thing as a winning strategy in Forex. And what I mean by that is a strategy that consistently pulls in winners. Most of the information out there telling people how to be a consistently profitable trader seems to be nothing more than hot air. Sure, these things may have worked years ago, but market conditions have changed and market manipulators have become more efficient at moving things around in their favor.

Take engulfing candles, for example, they used to be a big thing, but now they don't seem to pan out like they used to. And pin bars are no better. The same can be said about many other trading tactics.

What it really seems to come down to is retail traders are either lucky or unlucky. That's pretty much it. Winning in Forex is not so much about calculation as it is luck.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #816
  • Aug 26, 2020 10:13am Aug 26, 2020 10:13am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} ... Increase the rules based content towards mechanical trading in every single detail leaving minimal decision making in live market.
I have yet to find anyone who has been able to do that successfully.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #817
  • Aug 26, 2020 10:14am Aug 26, 2020 10:14am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} This is the solution to addiction. Cut out the discretionary element to the minimum. Increase the rules based content towards mechanical trading in every single detail leaving minimal decision making in live market.
This is where i am heading now.
Created a rule based system, working very hard not to overrule it, so far very little success with controlling the urges. A very long hard path but worth it at the end i reckon.
on a postive roll...
  • #818
  • Aug 26, 2020 10:20am Aug 26, 2020 10:20am
Quoting here2there
{quote} I have yet to find anyone who has been able to do that successfully.
https://www.forexfactory.com/copernicus
on a postive roll...
  • #819
  • Aug 26, 2020 10:28am Aug 26, 2020 10:28am
Quoting Rmg
{quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/copernicus
That doesn't prove anything. Where is the evidence? I want to see charts and a strategy that consistently pulls in winners. Not hindsight analyses. Then I will be convinced.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #820
  • Edited 10:54am Aug 26, 2020 10:31am | Edited 10:54am
Quoting here2there
{quote} That doesn't prove anything. Where is the evidence? I want to see charts and a strategy that consistently pulls in winners. Not hindsight analyses. Then I will be convinced.
No one bothers to convince you or anyone else for that matters.
Spend few minutes of your time in his thread at least few pages, your common sense will let you decide if you have some.
or you want a link to futures trading gold medalist ?
on a postive roll...
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