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Macfibo System Version 3.0

  • #81
  • Aug 23, 2020 6:59am Aug 23, 2020 6:59am
Quoting fuadik88
Is it the only opportunity to trade, only the day after crossover happens? Can't we trade during few days while not opposite crossover happens?
I am not sure I understand your question mate.
Trading Should Not Be Complex
  • #82
  • Aug 23, 2020 7:03am Aug 23, 2020 7:03am
FRESH SETUP : AUDJPY
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Trading Should Not Be Complex
  • #83
  • Aug 23, 2020 7:09am Aug 23, 2020 7:09am
Quoting sufiansaid
{quote} I am not sure I understand your question mate.
For example, in the end of 24th of August, crossover happens on Daily chart, then we trade on 25th of August. Can't we trade after this day, if there's no new crossover happens on daily chart?
  • #84
  • Aug 23, 2020 7:15am Aug 23, 2020 7:15am
when theres a crossover on D1, thats just sets your bias. Your entry to trade will be dependent whether you have a discounted price or not. (you wait the price to move to the zone). If an opposite crossover at D1 happens, then you shift your bias and rinse and repeat.
Trading Should Not Be Complex
  • #85
  • Edited 11:41am Aug 23, 2020 11:24am | Edited 11:41am
The following is my reply from other forum. A trader asked a specific performance stats for this system. I firstly said it's impossible for me to produce as I have used this system for more than 10 years and I have traded several different brokers since then hence reports that accurately describe this system performance is not ideal. Secondly, I have traded this system with a discretionary approach in managing the trades. Each trade will not have a constant position sizing as there are times I will split 2 and sometimes 3 of my positions and each of those will have different targets and exit mechanims etc etc And thirdly, I will also enter a trade based on a different entry method but based on the bias determined by Macfibo V3.0, so that adds the complexity in getting a 100% accurate performance stats. And fourthly, I have portfolio trading system, not the binary style, hence I pay less attention on how a single trade is going rather the performance of my entire basket.

The trader acknowledged it and said he was just doing simulations with other robust systems and he wondered how this trading system would compare, statistically, with the systems he simulated. This is my reply :

"The best scenario, and this is my guesstimate so I probably exaggerate the numbers here but I think it is not too far off though, is that first split of my position usually has up to 3R potential (recent swing high or low & 1.272%), the second split ranges between 4R to 8R.
If I had third split, which I let to wander until certain conditions happen i.e indicator based exit, its much less than the 2nd split and sometimes equal to the first split. now this is the best scenario. Trade management is if i have hit the first target then I will move my stoploss only based on price structures and what I feel about the market at the time (pretty discretionary hence

a) i dont really cover this in the guide

b) lack of hard solid numbers/stats to gauge this systems true performance)

2nd best scenario is only 1 target is hit and the rest of my position stopped out. sometimes in the tiny bit profit or stopped out at the stoploss completely. the final ROI normally just less than 1R or breakeven since the first split normally targets not less than 2R (2R-1R = +1R or 2R-1R-1R = 0R)
worst scenario is I get stopped out before hitting any targets and now, this happens many many times before price starts hitting the targets. There were times I entered up to 5 times before price finally goes to my intended direction (and heres a thing, there are several times I don’t put a hard automatic stoploss depends on my conviction of my bias - normally fundamental analysis driven, but I can discuss this in other posts). This stopping out multiple times contributed the very low win/loss ratio.

Just to add, the stats of a 5x10 crossover hitting the 1.272% in timeframes between H1 to Weekly for all major & cross pairs are not less than 75% and the probability of hitting 1.618% is not less than 55%."

P/s : Incase you are wondering how much do I risk per trade? Whilst I always thought this is nobody's business hahahah.. but I am in a tremendous mood because tomorrow's Monday!! My portfolio's exposure at 1 time should not be more than 4% (and thats normally up to 7-8 trades in 1 time). But that is very very very rare. On average my exposure is 0.75% at one time (yes less than 1%). I am very risk averse (which is silly considering I do from time to time do not put stoploss in my other methods) and i hate losing money much much much more than loving profits. (this doesn't necessarily equate losing a single trade, which is not the same. I know I am repeating myself here but I build portfolios so one losing trade won't matter if I have other 5, 6 or 9 other open positions working its magic). Capital preservation is always my goal. so there you go..
Trading Should Not Be Complex
  • #86
  • Aug 23, 2020 5:16pm Aug 23, 2020 5:16pm
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Trading Should Not Be Complex
  • #87
  • Aug 23, 2020 7:41pm Aug 23, 2020 7:41pm
Hi SufianSaid,

Thank you for your contribution and sharing. I always feel fibo is a magical tool to utilize.
I Will read up more and give a go. May the green pips be with you!

Aaloy
  • #88
  • Aug 24, 2020 1:19am Aug 24, 2020 1:19am
Quoting sufiansaid
FRESH SETUP : AUDJPY {image}
Discounted price on offer now. Price entered the zone.
Trading Should Not Be Complex
  • #89
  • Aug 24, 2020 3:23am Aug 24, 2020 3:23am
Quoting sufiansaid
Just to add, the stats of a 5x10 crossover hitting the 1.272% in timeframes between H1 to Weekly for all major & cross pairs are not less than 75% and the probability of hitting 1.618% is not less than 55%."
To discover an edge, it all began with an idea and then you proceed to crunch the numbers. Trading should not be complicated but its hard work!



Stat example that I have. EURGBP on Weekly 5x10 crossover
EURGBP at Weekly
1.272 = 80.6% (edge!)
1.618 = 63.9% (edge!)
2.000 = 50.0% (meeh!)
2.618 = 30.6% (no edge here)

How many times price enter the zone before it hits 1.618 = 62.16% (edge!)

How many times price engulf the activating candle (reversed) before it hits 1.618 = 24.14% (edge!)

If hit 2.618, whats the % it retraces at least 38.2% = 70.0% of the time (edge!)
TSI is at overbought/oversold when 2.618% hits 100% of the time (edge!)
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Trading Should Not Be Complex
  • #90
  • Aug 24, 2020 2:25pm Aug 24, 2020 2:25pm
Fresh Setup : GBPJPY

No Economic Reports for the U.K nor Japan today.
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Trading Should Not Be Complex
  • #91
  • Aug 24, 2020 2:43pm Aug 24, 2020 2:43pm
Luke warm Setup : USDJPY

There was a signal to go Short a day after the bias had been determined. Obviously most of you who used a stop-loss would've been stopped out. There was a second entry opportunity and depends on when you entered, you should be in the +ve right now. For those who missed the bus on the first entry (call yourself lucky) or the second entry, don't rule out an opportunity to go short today at a very good price today. Timing in this market is impossible, just focus on your position sizing.
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  • #92
  • Aug 24, 2020 3:42pm Aug 24, 2020 3:42pm
Quoting sufiansaid
Fresh Setup : GBPJPY No Economic Reports for the U.K nor Japan today. {image}
50 PIPS possible - 1.272 = 80.6% (edge!) :-) I get these hit many times,its correct with your calculation
  • #93
  • Aug 24, 2020 3:49pm Aug 24, 2020 3:49pm
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  • #94
  • Aug 24, 2020 4:18pm Aug 24, 2020 4:18pm
AUDCHF - 5x10 bearish cross on Daily 20/8/20. Fibs drawn on M30 HOD to LOD.Price is playing in the zone 2 days now :-) tell me what you think of this,looking for news to take apart this structure of 48 hrs consolidation
  • #95
  • Aug 24, 2020 5:18pm Aug 24, 2020 5:18pm
Man oh man... that is absolutely hideous. Look for other setups my man.
(Yes I don't mention this in the guide. (If I did, it would turn into a book and I don't have the vocabulary or time to write one) ooh bracket within a bracket... but this require our discretion to pick the best 5x10 setups. AUDCHF won't be in my top 5 pick for this particular method though these market conditions are great hunting ground for my scalping methods though)
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  • #96
  • Aug 24, 2020 5:32pm Aug 24, 2020 5:32pm
Quoting sufiansaid
Man oh man... that is absolutely hideous. Look for other setups my man. (Yes I don't mention this in the guide. (If I did, it would turn into a book and I don't have the vocabulary or time to write one) ooh bracket within a bracket... but this require our discretion to pick the best 5x10 setups. AUDCHF won't be in my top 5 pick for this particular method though these market conditions are great hunting ground for my scalping methods though) {image}
Its crazy setup,i know,just wanted your professional opinion :-) No way i'm not into range bound either,i took 1hr just now and pulled out 9 possible crosses with,lets wait and see setups during London session.I will say 8,subtract AUDCHF.

The List - AUDJPY/AUDUSD/CHFJPY/EURCHF/EURJPY/EURUSD/GBPCAD/GBPJPY - I can filter any that heads into the AUDCHF type category.
  • #97
  • Aug 24, 2020 7:12pm Aug 24, 2020 7:12pm
Quoting scsstnt
{quote} Its crazy setup,i know,just wanted your professional opinion :-) No way i'm not into range bound either,i took 1hr just now and pulled out 9 possible crosses with,lets wait and see setups during London session.I will say 8,subtract AUDCHF. The List - AUDJPY/AUDUSD/CHFJPY/EURCHF/EURJPY/EURUSD/GBPCAD/GBPJPY - I can filter any that heads into the AUDCHF type category.
I am guessing you are building a portfolio. Do take consideration how correlated they are (100% positive it moves the same way and -100% it moves completely inversed). If you must take all the correlated currency pairs, split your risk. The whole point of having a portfolio is to have a basket that is fully diversified. It is indeed very tricky building a fully diversified portfolio in Forex. Do add Stock CFDs in there (if you don't trade Stocks), some commodities, some bonds and indices.
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Trading Should Not Be Complex
  • #98
  • Aug 24, 2020 7:14pm Aug 24, 2020 7:14pm
Quoting scsstnt
{quote} 50 PIPS possible - 1.272 = 80.6% (edge!) :-) I get these hit many times,its correct with your calculation
It is indeed friggin SPECTACULAR
Trading Should Not Be Complex
  • #99
  • Aug 24, 2020 8:03pm Aug 24, 2020 8:03pm
Quoting scsstnt
{quote} Its crazy setup,i know,just wanted your professional opinion :-) No way i'm not into range bound either,i took 1hr just now and pulled out 9 possible crosses with,lets wait and see setups during London session.I will say 8,subtract AUDCHF. The List - AUDJPY/AUDUSD/CHFJPY/EURCHF/EURJPY/EURUSD/GBPCAD/GBPJPY - I can filter any that heads into the AUDCHF type category.
0.65420 and 0.65500 are the prices we need to monitor. Buy stop liquidity clusters up there. It screams one final price manipulation before the distribution phase begins.
Trading Should Not Be Complex
  • #100
  • Aug 25, 2020 3:14am Aug 25, 2020 3:14am
Quoting sufiansaid
{quote} 0.65420 and 0.65500 are the prices we need to monitor. Buy stop liquidity clusters up there. It screams one final price manipulation before the distribution phase begins.
Ok,the one trade we didn't really consider its the one took off like a rocket.Out of all 8,only 2 took that retracement from the ZONE,fundamental news does alot in changing its course,confirmations must be considered with rules,maybe wit until another dy and price re-enter into the ZONE and respect it.
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