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Trading Institutional Order Flow

  • #8,761
  • Aug 22, 2020 12:33pm Aug 22, 2020 12:33pm
Hm

D.B
  • #8,762
  • Aug 22, 2020 1:25pm Aug 22, 2020 1:25pm
Quoting joe123
{quote} I wouldn't place my supply zone (in yellow) like that. If you look on a LTF chart like 1h, you will sče the supply zone clearly.
You are talking about MTF analysis, yes there is some nested H1 inside the daily (curve) but in this case the Daily is not fresh it's lower odds. Personally I would wait for a break in either side and new imbalances.
  • #8,763
  • Aug 22, 2020 11:18pm Aug 22, 2020 11:18pm
Quoting Royal146
{quote} Thank you very much AKT, but I don't understand why those little zones are demand? because they didn't remove any valid supply .the only valid one is holding price down as you said but its still not taken out! so I assume they are buying (very weak) zones, not demand. am I right? Or I'm missing something here? (as educational purposes I'm asking these questions. I don't trade this pair right now because it's so poor in terms of SD) {image}
Hello Royal146

The zone you highlighted is supply, it's just that it has been traded through to the higher level is why it is no longer relevant.

In terms of what constitues a demand zone, removing an opposing zone is but one of several factors to consider. It is not what
determines a zone as being demand or supply. Rather, removing an opposing zone is a factor that increases probability of success, especially as it opens up profit margin.

best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #8,764
  • Aug 22, 2020 11:53pm Aug 22, 2020 11:53pm
Heres another trade i took during my backtesting journey. My rules tell me that when I trade counter trend to take profit @ 2.0R before the opposing LTF Zone. As you can see price hit the TP and then some. I'm going to stick to my rules until I gather enough evidence to support adjusting them.

I want to gather some perspective from the traders here. Do you guys have the same Take Profit rules when trading with the trend versus trading against it?

Another lesson I've learned throughout this backtesting/journaling process is that waiting for confirmation on the Trend Timeframe, especially when coming off of a NON-Fresh Curve Zone AND Trading Counter-Trend seems to be more promising than taking the confirmation based on the Lower Timeframe in the same situation.

Does this ring true for anyone else as well?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Curve.png Size: 343 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Trend.png Size: 375 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Entry.png Size: 294 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: After.png Size: 407 KB
  • #8,765
  • Aug 22, 2020 11:59pm Aug 22, 2020 11:59pm
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello Masterquis Thanks for sharing your charts on GBPAUD and the issue you have I have attached some comments to the chart below for you to consider. Within the methodology, traders as you know, trade pullbacks and use multiple timeframe analysis. When prices are in an uptrend and pulling back on the primary timeframe, going down to get more definition of price movement is what you were doing looking at the 4hr. Now, in the situation where one is expecting the 4hr to pullback to the daily level and it does not, but rallies and then heads...
Thanks for the tip! I have noticed that in a really strong trending market that often price doesn't pull back to the demand zones nested inside of the Higher Time Frame zones and i was beating myself up on how I could safely join the trend.

This helps immensely!

Glad to see you're back around, man and I trust/hope that things are going well for you out there.
  • #8,766
  • Aug 23, 2020 12:38am Aug 23, 2020 12:38am
Quoting Masterquis
Heres another trade i took during my backtesting journey. My rules tell me that when I trade counter trend to take profit @ 2.0R before the opposing LTF Zone. As you can see price hit the TP and then some. I'm going to stick to my rules until I gather enough evidence to support adjusting them. I want to gather some perspective from the traders here. Do you guys have the same Take Profit rules when trading with the trend versus trading against it? Another lesson I've learned throughout this backtesting/journaling process is that waiting for confirmation...
Hello Masterquis

This is a lesson i often remind newer practioners, thank you for sharing your experience of it.

Waiting for confirmation entries especially when larger timeframe levels have been tested, or when one is going againt the trend is a very important aspects of pieceing together the various timeframes used in decision making.
Whilst using the smallest timeframes work and are possible, like any early signal in the markets, the earlier a signal is, the less reliable it often is.

thanks for sharing

best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #8,767
  • Aug 23, 2020 1:41pm Aug 23, 2020 1:41pm
CHFJPY 5min sell. they way price moved away implies high sellers. tight stop. tight limit. level should give it some kind of bounce to the down side.
Attached Image
Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
  • #8,768
  • Aug 23, 2020 8:14pm Aug 23, 2020 8:14pm
Quoting joe123
CHFJPY 5min sell. they way price moved away implies high sellers. tight stop. tight limit. level should give it some kind of bounce to the down side. {image}
Hey Joe,

Can you provide any of the other timeframes you've marked up?
To support your reasoning as to why you that 5-minute level may work.

Thanks,
D.B
  • #8,769
  • Aug 24, 2020 4:51am Aug 24, 2020 4:51am
took a long on audnzd 4h at demand. nice reaction to the Demand (engulfing)
Attached Image
Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
  • #8,770
  • Aug 24, 2020 5:27am Aug 24, 2020 5:27am
Quoting D.B
{quote} Hey Joe, Can you provide any of the other timeframes you've marked up? To support your reasoning as to why you that 5-minute level may work. Thanks, D.B
got knocked out. stop was tight. maybe 15 min chart was a pole in the middle of price but that's about it, ''close'' to 1h supply aswell. marked out the supply's. we hit htf demand. so yeah.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHFJPY (08-23-2020 1938).png Size: 23 KB


dont pay attention to my 5 min charts, its just noise for most people. I shouldn't be posting them really.
Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
  • #8,771
  • Aug 24, 2020 5:45am Aug 24, 2020 5:45am
EURGBP 1H chart. this should be a nice supply. although price has been doing nothing for sometime. a spike to this level wold be a nice short..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP (08-11-2020 1632).png Size: 35 KB
Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
  • #8,772
  • Aug 24, 2020 5:57am Aug 24, 2020 5:57am
shorting eurusd .1864
Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
  • #8,773
  • Aug 24, 2020 6:37am Aug 24, 2020 6:37am
Quoting joe123
shorting eurusd .1864
4h engulfing, 1h engulfing, 15min find the supply and short. price is a bit choppy on daily, take that into account. tight stop above high
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD (08-18-2020 1724).png Size: 20 KB
Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
  • #8,774
  • Aug 24, 2020 9:35am Aug 24, 2020 9:35am
Hello good people,I have just joined the thread. Looking forward to grow my S.A.D trading skills and interacting with all of you guys
  • #8,775
  • Aug 24, 2020 12:03pm Aug 24, 2020 12:03pm
Quoting Pbee
Hello good people,I have just joined the thread. Looking forward to grow my S.A.D trading skills and interacting with all of you guys

Welcome to the thread Pbee! Stay awhile and learn with us!

Theres a TON of great info throughout the in the in the screenshots! Also check out Storehouse Analytics on YouTube thats the sister channel to this thread.

Glad to have you here with us.
  • #8,776
  • Aug 24, 2020 1:46pm Aug 24, 2020 1:46pm
Quoting joe123
{quote} 4h engulfing, 1h engulfing, 15min find the supply and short. price is a bit choppy on daily, take that into account. tight stop above high {image}
Hey Joe thanks for sharing your trade ideas. Could you please post a Top Down Analysis of your trades so we can follow your thought process and get a better idea of the context of the trade?

Id really like to get a deeper insight on how you arrive at these ideas man.
  • #8,777
  • Aug 24, 2020 3:22pm Aug 24, 2020 3:22pm
Hey Guys, another question came up in my backtesting and I wanted to get some thoughts on it.

Here's the scenario:

Higher Timeframe (HTF) is in an Uptrend
Curve Demand is FRESH
Price has pulled back into FRESH Curve Demand
Sellers @ LESS than 2.0 away from Entry zone on ITF/LTF

Do you cancel the trade even though price will be coming out of FRESH HTF Demand in an Uptrend?

I chose not to cancel the trade in this instance and it worked out, but now i'm wondering... in this instance should I calculate profit margin as the distance between the
Higher Timeframe Zones?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Curve.png Size: 371 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Trend.png Size: 347 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Entry.png Size: 361 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: After.png Size: 346 KB
  • #8,778
  • Aug 25, 2020 3:44am Aug 25, 2020 3:44am
Hi Guys, a genuine question. I am curious how other trades could approach that. I am a trend trade so my way of thinking is to go ahead and wait for either a 4H supply to be hit to start initiating short positions or wait for the 1H to change the direction to the downside with enough profit potential and then start shorting it.

However, in the screenshot, I can see that the price is reacting from the 4H demand and of course the demand is in the control, plus there is a good profit potential up up until the 4H supply. would you guys start taking longs on the 1H time frame until you hit the 4H supply? would that be a valid approach?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP JPY 25.08.2020.png Size: 111 KB
  • #8,779
  • Edited 5:05am Aug 25, 2020 4:43am | Edited 5:05am
tried a long based on 1h chart, but 15min theres supply that can take this lower. closed 1/3rd
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD (08-17-2020 1803).png Size: 47 KB



PS. tried another long. ops no 5 min charts.

Attached Image
Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
  • #8,780
  • Aug 25, 2020 6:30am Aug 25, 2020 6:30am
Quoting DavidKl
Hi Guys, a genuine question. I am curious how other trades could approach that. I am a trend trade so my way of thinking is to go ahead and wait for either a 4H supply to be hit to start initiating short positions or wait for the 1H to change the direction to the downside with enough profit potential and then start shorting it. However, in the screenshot, I can see that the price is reacting from the 4H demand and of course the demand is in the control, plus there is a good profit potential up up until the 4H supply. would you guys start taking...
Hello DavidK1

If i may, firstly, the trend on that 4hr chart you shared would be considered to be a sideways range.
Depending on the size of the range, there may be room to trade both sides of the market. In this case, there is enough room, if the market presents the opportunity.

An important concept within the methodology is that "we do not diddling in the middle". That simply refers to the assumption that trading in the middle of a move is often quite challenging as the market is not at the usual extremes that often carry a higher probability.
Having said that, for those such inclined, there are ways to trade such market environments.

For this market, with proces being in the middle, with room to go to the upside, it is not impossible to look to go long in the short term whilst being ready to exit higher up in the range

best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
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