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  • #8,741
  • Aug 20, 2020 11:14am Aug 20, 2020 11:14am
Quoting joe123
{quote} I normally trade lower timeframes but I keep an eye on daily and weekly. I normally get stopped out when I forget to look at htf
Ok fair enough.
  • #8,742
  • Aug 20, 2020 11:22am Aug 20, 2020 11:22am
I strictly look at my set time sequence UNLESS i've broken momentum on my HTF and I want to execute a trade in the direction of the previous momentum.

I.E. Upward momentum broken and I want to buy at HTF Demand.

Not to say that knowing where you are on the daily is bad at all, but I find that usually ill have zones that fit my HTF nested inside of the HTF +1 zone anyway.

Can you show us a chart so we can see how its affected you, maybe we can give you a better answer that way.
  • #8,743
  • Edited 11:43am Aug 20, 2020 11:32am | Edited 11:43am
Hey guys, so my trading has been doo-doo this whole month. So i'm getting in the gym and practicing (backtesting my rules)

I came across a trade that ended up working out, but i'm wondering if this is against the rules.


What i'm confused about a little bit is that, yes the trade was in the direction of the HTF & ITF Trend, but the LTF zone wasn't nested inside of a ITF zone. Is that necessary? Also the LTF Upward momentum was broken, but that usually happens when price retraces to a LTF zone. In those cases do we only buy LTF zones that are nested inside of ITF zones?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Curve.png Size: 332 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Trend.png Size: 321 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Entry.png Size: 346 KB
  • #8,744
  • Aug 20, 2020 11:54am Aug 20, 2020 11:54am
Quoting Masterquis
Hey guys, so my trading has been doo-doo this whole month. So i'm getting in the gym and practicing (backtesting my rules) I came across a trade that ended up working out, but i'm wondering if this is against the rules. What i'm confused about a little bit is that, yes the trade was in the direction of the HTF & ITF Trend, but the LTF zone wasn't nested inside of a ITF zone. Is that necessary? Also the LTF Upward momentum was broken, but that usually happens when price retraces to a LTF zone. In those cases do we only buy LTF zones that are nested...
this is where I call into question a lot of what we see here... as in I’m having a hard time separating randomly assigned Supply/Demand zones and anything of substance.

pertaining to this, by all accounts of what I’ve read into S&D, that zone should have been almost fully depleted from the previous down/up leg.

I mean if you go through this thread, you’ll find people saying wicks that just barely enter the zone as reasons for it not being fresh. As far as this example, it looks like it wiped it out.

trade worked. The rules don’t seem to be applied in ensuring S or D is fresh. Ergo, is S and D anything different that any other inadvertent application of lines on a chart.
  • #8,745
  • Aug 20, 2020 12:40pm Aug 20, 2020 12:40pm
Quoting tradeChaser
{quote} this is where I call into question a lot of what we see here... as in I’m having a hard time separating randomly assigned Supply/Demand zones and anything of substance. pertaining to this, by all accounts of what I’ve read into S&D, that zone should have been almost fully depleted from the previous down/up leg. I mean if you go through this thread, you’ll find people saying wicks that just barely enter the zone as reasons for it not being fresh. As far as this example, it looks like it wiped it out. trade worked. The rules don’t seem to...
I guess I should have pointed out that I got in the trade on the 1st pull-back to the zone, but to your point I got really lucky to not be stopped out on the second pull back.

I'm more wondering if i've broken any rules in taking this trade or is my thinking correct.

I do get your frustration though, I think the biggest lesson I had to learn with this methodology and trading in general is that - the rules are there to give us a better PROBABILITY of a trade working out. Nothing is ever certain, which is why we can get zones that work out like the one above did even though the zone had been hit hard.

It's the same reason beautiful zones get blown through even though they look like they look like for sure home runs.

2 years of trading this and I'm just now understanding that a 50% win-rate doesn't mean you can't lose 5 trades in a row. This thing really is a numbers game.
  • #8,746
  • Aug 20, 2020 3:18pm Aug 20, 2020 3:18pm
Quoting Masterquis
Hey guys, so my trading has been doo-doo this whole month. So i'm getting in the gym and practicing (backtesting my rules) I came across a trade that ended up working out, but i'm wondering if this is against the rules. What i'm confused about a little bit is that, yes the trade was in the direction of the HTF & ITF Trend, but the LTF zone wasn't nested inside of a ITF zone. Is that necessary? Also the LTF Upward momentum was broken, but that usually happens when price retraces to a LTF zone. In those cases do we only buy LTF zones that are nested...
Hi Masterquis, please see my below notes on the Daily and 4H, I didn't have a history for the 1H going that far back. I hope this helps.

It's really important what sort of trader you want to be, counter trend trader or with trend trader or both.

Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Daily GBPAUD.png Size: 96 KB

4H
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4H GBPAUD.png Size: 71 KB
  • #8,747
  • Aug 20, 2020 4:53pm Aug 20, 2020 4:53pm
Quoting Masterquis
Hey guys, so my trading has been doo-doo this whole month. So i'm getting in the gym and practicing (backtesting my rules) I came across a trade that ended up working out, but i'm wondering if this is against the rules. What i'm confused about a little bit is that, yes the trade was in the direction of the HTF & ITF Trend, but the LTF zone wasn't nested inside of a ITF zone. Is that necessary? Also the LTF Upward momentum was broken, but that usually happens when price retraces to a LTF zone. In those cases do we only buy LTF zones that are nested...

Hey Masterquis, on your trend tf you had a down trend line drawn, why then did you say the trend is up

I think you missed something there, when price started making lower highs and lower lows, the trend changed from up to down although the previous up trendline you had wasn't broken

Daily was up while 4hr down at your point of entry
So as David said, I believe the right decision was to wait for 4hr trend to change up or buy at daily demand
  • #8,748
  • Aug 20, 2020 5:17pm Aug 20, 2020 5:17pm
Quoting DavidKl
{quote} Hi Masterquis, please see my below notes on the Daily and 4H, I didn't have a history for the 1H going that far back. I hope this helps. It's really important what sort of trader you want to be, counter trend trader or with trend trader or both. Daily {image} 4H {image}
Thanks for the feedback! Looks like I've got to pay closer attention to how I draw my curve levels. That really does change the decision matrix a lot doesn't it? Appreciate the help!
  • #8,749
  • Aug 20, 2020 5:29pm Aug 20, 2020 5:29pm
Quoting Obiech
{quote} Hey Masterquis, on your trend tf you had a down trend line drawn, why then did you say the trend is up I think you missed something there, when price started making lower highs and lower lows, the trend changed from up to down although the previous up trendline you had wasn't broken Daily was up while 4hr down at your point of entry So as David said, I believe the right decision was to wait for 4hr trend to change up or buy at daily demand
Hey Obiech, That was intended to show the momentum of the ITF rather than the Trend. However, I think you're right because I had neglected a supply area that should have been used as my curve zone.

Thanks for the help man!
  • #8,750
  • Aug 20, 2020 5:29pm Aug 20, 2020 5:29pm
Which brings me another question... As we all know, we can identify a change in trend by either:

-Being able to draw a momentum line + Breaking an opposing zone

OR

-Breaking two opposing zones


My question is do these broken zones have to be "Trade-able" zones, as in they've broken a trendline OR taken out an opposing "Trade-able" zone? Or can these broken zones merely be a buy/selling area?
  • #8,751
  • Aug 20, 2020 6:02pm Aug 20, 2020 6:02pm
Quoting Masterquis
Which brings me another question... As we all know, we can identify a change in trend by either: -Being able to draw a momentum line + Breaking an opposing zone OR -Breaking two opposing zones My question is do these broken zones have to be "Trade-able" zones, as in they've broken a trendline OR taken out an opposing "Trade-able" zone? Or can these broken zones merely be a buy/selling area?
Hi Masterquis, they just have to qualify as a zone. With the time you will see where the stack of buyers are and if the zone is an actual zone etc. I would go with the actual zone, i.e. 2:1 imbalance or it it consumed the opposing zone or broke the TL etc.
  • #8,752
  • Aug 21, 2020 1:03am Aug 21, 2020 1:03am
Quoting Masterquis
{quote} I guess I should have pointed out that I got in the trade on the 1st pull-back to the zone, but to your point I got really lucky to not be stopped out on the second pull back. I'm more wondering if i've broken any rules in taking this trade or is my thinking correct. I do get your frustration though, I think the biggest lesson I had to learn with this methodology and trading in general is that - the rules are there to give us a better PROBABILITY of a trade working out. Nothing is ever certain, which is why we can get zones that work out...
you know, I want to clarify. I’m not so much frustrated, although I see where you got that.

Rather I was pointing out that while people claim S/D is the cleanest, most direct way to trade the markets, the actual execution of analysis is just as arbitrary as using indicator crossovers.

Go through many of the images in this thread, and people seem to Mark zones at random.

I’m not trying to criticize, at all. I just wish that he whomever knows remotely what he is doing in finding true S/D zones and trading them would say so, while correcting the others here.

because there is little uniformity. And the problem with that, mind you, is you can’t have different S/D zones. you can definitely be wrong, but if the premise of S/D is order blocks at a good price as well as orders remaining to be filled, etc - if that’s True, than there is about one future turning point on the chart At any given time.

Yet these posts are all different...
  • #8,753
  • Edited 6:41am Aug 21, 2020 6:11am | Edited 6:41am
Quoting joe123
Dollar 1h chart. Source of rally, therefor demand. Middle will act as some form of bounce/support {image}
still expecting the higher supply to be hit with the dollar.

Quoting joe123
EURUSD retracing back in to the demand? We need to break 1.1800 ish first {image}
which should act nicely with the support for eurusd.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDOLLAR (08-11-2020 1526) supply zone (short).png Size: 45 KB
Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
  • #8,754
  • Aug 21, 2020 12:58pm Aug 21, 2020 12:58pm
eurusd 5min chart. enter with confirmation of a move lower (engulfing on HTF).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD m5 (08-21-2020 1705).png Size: 23 KB
Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
  • #8,755
  • Aug 22, 2020 5:53am Aug 22, 2020 5:53am
Quoting Masterquis
Hey guys, so my trading has been doo-doo this whole month. So i'm getting in the gym and practicing (backtesting my rules) I came across a trade that ended up working out, but i'm wondering if this is against the rules. What i'm confused about a little bit is that, yes the trade was in the direction of the HTF & ITF Trend, but the LTF zone wasn't nested inside of a ITF zone. Is that necessary? Also the LTF Upward momentum was broken, but that usually happens when price retraces to a LTF zone. In those cases do we only buy LTF zones that are nested...
Hello Masterquis
Thanks for sharing your charts on GBPAUD and the issue you have

I have attached some comments to the chart below for you to consider.

Within the methodology, traders as you know, trade pullbacks and use multiple timeframe analysis. When prices are in an uptrend and pulling back on the primary timeframe, going down to get more definition of price movement is what you were doing looking at the 4hr.

Now, in the situation where one is expecting the 4hr to pullback to the daily level and it does not, but rallies and then heads to new highs, new levels are being formed and will by definition take over and so should be used.

The level that caused prices to rally was by definition, low on the curve at the time. So it is not entirely suprising prices didn't get to the ideal spot of the daily demand zone, as frustrating as that is, it does happen. In those situations, it may be worth following the new levels being created as price reaches new highs

hope it helps

best wishes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud ff.PNG Size: 92 KB
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #8,756
  • Aug 22, 2020 6:08am Aug 22, 2020 6:08am
Quoting tradeChaser
{quote} you know, I want to clarify. I’m not so much frustrated, although I see where you got that. Rather I was pointing out that while people claim S/D is the cleanest, most direct way to trade the markets, the actual execution of analysis is just as arbitrary as using indicator crossovers. Go through many of the images in this thread, and people seem to Mark zones at random. I’m not trying to criticize, at all. I just wish that he whomever knows remotely what he is doing in finding true S/D zones and trading them would say so, while correcting...
Hello tradeChaser
I don't believe we've met. Good to meet you

If i may, i definitely agree with some of what you have noted in terms of several errors made when zones are drawn up
Within the methodology there are clear rules for drawing zones, but unfortunately, due to the proliferation of practitioners of the methogology, there is now a lot of personal interpretation of those rules.

So, to clarify, firstly, each individual zone will by definition be marked differently, simply because the price ranges, and time spent at price levels will differ not just from zone to zone on the same timeframe but also across timeframes.

Drawing zones:

1. body to wick - for demand levels, the highest close within the base to the lowest wick within the base. For supply zones, the highest wick between the base and lowest close within the bast

2. Wick to wick - highest wick to lowest wick within the base. Note that this approach is especially common to use where the base consists of one candle only

3. body to wick - for demand levels, the lowest open in the base to the lowest wick in the base. For supply zones, the highest open within the base to the highest wick in the base.

Each one of these approaches have their own advantages and disadvantages.

Individual traders will decide for themselves which one they decide they want to use or whether they use a combination of all three, at different times, the rules of which they will set for themselves.

Hope that helps

best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #8,757
  • Aug 22, 2020 6:11am Aug 22, 2020 6:11am
Hello Traders
I'm a little confused about finding current supply and demand(in control) on EURCAD daily TF as the curve.
we know a valid supply must remove a valid opposing demand zone or supply is created after ascending TL is broken vise versa for valid demand.

please correct me here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcadd.jpg Size: 75 KB
  • #8,758
  • Aug 22, 2020 6:50am Aug 22, 2020 6:50am
Quoting Royal146
Hello Traders I'm a little confused about finding current supply and demand(in control) on EURCAD daily TF as the curve. we know a valid supply must remove a valid opposing demand zone or supply is created after ascending TL is broken vise versa for valid demand. please correct me here. {image}
Hello Royal146

thank you for the very interesting chart on EURCAD.

please see some of my thoughts below

best wishes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad ff.PNG Size: 66 KB
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #8,759
  • Edited 1:20pm Aug 22, 2020 8:24am | Edited 1:20pm
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello Royal146 thank you for the very interesting chart on EURCAD. please see some of my thoughts below best wishes{image}
Thank you very much AKT,

but I don't understand why those little zones are demand? because they didn't remove any valid supply .the only valid one is holding price down as you said but its still not taken out! so I assume they are buying (very weak) zones, not demand. am I right? Or I'm missing something here?

(as educational purposes I'm asking these questions. I don't trade this pair right now because it's so poor in terms of SD)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad ff.PNG Size: 60 KB
  • #8,760
  • Aug 22, 2020 10:55am Aug 22, 2020 10:55am
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello Royal146 thank you for the very interesting chart on EURCAD. please see some of my thoughts below best wishes{image}
I wouldn't place my supply zone (in yellow) like that. If you look on a LTF chart like 1h, you will sèe the supply zone clearly. Personally for me that would be an incorrect way of putting it. Multi time frame analysis is important because it will tell you where price will actually turn within a very tight zone. In this case 1.5920-1.5990 was the zone and it showed it with bearish engulfing (institutional traders) selling at that level. Best place to sell.

Also a lot of people fail to include engulfing candles. You have no movement with out engulfing. The institutional investor moves price with engulfing candles and you increase your trade setup when you on the side of the institutional side. I have found trading with engulfing is another hole way of trading apart from finding key zones (supply and demand). It's the difference between being on the side of retail or wholesale. You want to be with wholesale.
Indicators only Indicate, Price action dictates.
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