The Swamp | Page 3691 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: The Swamp
Exit Attachments

The Swamp

  • #73,801
  • Aug 20, 2020 3:15am Aug 20, 2020 3:15am
Quoting gatorinla
I'm thinking AJ is setting up a break.. But if it cant move up. 400 to 800 pips below. The end of August it may run out of runway or sooner. 77.00 area may be a top needing breaking for bulls. If it implodes, month close would be -76.21, week -76.5, Day maybe then -76.52, 4h -76.75, 1h -76.75.. So if the tl is tested, bulls need to maintain those closes and go up. If not, the wedge pattern bottom may give up. One may be get lucky and play off 77.00 for some.. maybe hold some, for more. AJ reflects on commodities and equities. It is bullish, but...
Please tell me it was the top
  • #73,802
  • Aug 20, 2020 3:56am Aug 20, 2020 3:56am
Bears pushed down to H4 uptrend stop at 1812...if bears can reverse the trend next H4 try,, bears target will be 1770s today.. I have a bet on that today...if not I will keep short refills..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 14 KB
  • #73,803
  • Aug 20, 2020 4:02am Aug 20, 2020 4:02am
Quoting TuTang
{quote} Please tell me it was the top
from near 77.. i was thinking 400 minimal, "if it broke down". But it could be more. Walmart one of the biggest benefactors of the 600 per week. Has noticed a large drop in sales since it expired. I drew a wedge on the chart. if you look at the chart you can see a un-drawn wedge that it much larger. The origin (start) of the wedge start low is often where it goes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 27 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,804
  • Aug 20, 2020 4:17am Aug 20, 2020 4:17am
Similar to Gator's number 12 hour candle just closed 0.1 pip green. I see 1896 possible S entry by London open and roughly 200 pips down tomorrow (wishful, but EUR data could be a catalyst).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD+3HH12.png Size: 116 KB
  • #73,805
  • Aug 20, 2020 4:18am Aug 20, 2020 4:18am
Quoting TuTang
{quote} Please tell me it was the top
you can draw some tl.. the 77 area has a bunch of R. This is what the month looks like. up since March with all that 600 $ stimulus.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 39 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,806
  • Aug 20, 2020 4:28am Aug 20, 2020 4:28am
Quoting BearingBull
Similar to Gator's number 12 hour candle just closed 0.1 pip green. I see 1896 possible S entry by London open and roughly 200 pips down tomorrow (wishful, but EUR data could be a catalyst). {image}
that would complete average weekly ADR | 256 approx as well
  • #73,807
  • Aug 20, 2020 4:36am Aug 20, 2020 4:36am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} from near 77.. i was thinking 400 minimal, "if it broke down". But it could be more. Walmart one of the biggest benefactors of the 600 per week. Has noticed a large drop in sales since it expired. I drew a wedge on the chart. if you look at the chart you can see a un-drawn wedge that it much larger. The origin (start) of the wedge start low is often where it goes. {image}
month 7623.3, week 76.38-4, 76.34-5, day 76.49-4, 4h 76.61, 1h 76.74-3 close above needed. So far this month, bulls were unable to do it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 39 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,808
  • Aug 20, 2020 4:51am Aug 20, 2020 4:51am
4h in purple.. bears closed below the first.. next one on the chart.. a day close below 75.20, opens the week up for a test at 74.28
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 25 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,809
  • Aug 20, 2020 5:14am Aug 20, 2020 5:14am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} you can draw some tl.. the 77 area has a bunch of R. This is what the month looks like. up since March with all that 600 $ stimulus. {image}
it already fullfil H4 closed bearish. now need D close below 76 and W close below 76.2. Does that mean we looking at the Equities drop cooking as well?
  • #73,810
  • Aug 20, 2020 5:19am Aug 20, 2020 5:19am
eu 1h made a lower close. a 1h close below 1826.6 should open 1809/08 maybe 1790. a close below 1808 opens 1790. a 1h below 1790 opens 1783 or more. An h close above 1853 opens 1881 or more. 4h wise 1809 is support. a 4 h close below opens 1801 1783 or a 1736 test. 1714 is a big one for day. A day close below is probably b/o bearish. Above is still bullish
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 16 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,811
  • Aug 20, 2020 5:33am Aug 20, 2020 5:33am
Quoting TuTang
{quote} it already fullfil H4 closed bearish. now need D close below 76 and W close below 76.2. Does that mean we looking at the Equities drop cooking as well?
atm it looks that way. tech stocks did well with people working from home. Mail order internet stocks did well in a pandemic. Foot traffic is now slowing at Walmart with the 600 cut. For months people working at home have helped those home/office tech stocks. If the software/hardware/home office furniture was already purchased. Whats that do for future outlook? Net flix and those subscriptions are filled. Whats next? take away those 600$ and subscriptions fall. Walmart sales fall. Home mortgage, credit card, rents, payments fall. Banks stocks go in the shitter as bank reo's climb. Car sales jumped with the 600. How many will banks soon own? What happens to auto sales now? What happens to oil demand? Walmart shops at China. What happens to Australia if China purchases less?

Its August, we are 20 days post 600. Guess where this puts us in November.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,812
  • Aug 20, 2020 5:43am Aug 20, 2020 5:43am
EU long pending hit at 1815 1820. SL at 1775 (40pips).
  • #73,813
  • Aug 20, 2020 5:48am Aug 20, 2020 5:48am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} atm it looks that way. tech stocks did well with people working from home. Mail order internet stocks did well in a pandemic. Foot traffic is now slowing at Walmart with the 600 cut. For months people working at home have helped those home/office tech stocks. If the software/hardware/home office furniture was already purchased. Whats that do for future outlook? Net flix and those subscriptions are filled. Whats next? take away those 600$ and subscriptions fall. Walmart sales fall. Home mortgage, credit card, rents, payments fall. Banks stocks...
If this above continues. By Tuesday November 3 (75 days). The stock markets may not be so shiny. Just guessing. Historically stocks need earnings to rise. (just not recently with the stimulus). I dont see a new stimulus package atm.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,814
  • Aug 20, 2020 6:01am Aug 20, 2020 6:01am
Another good day so far...scalp +150 pips as of now.. more will come.. shoot for day range low 1770s if bears can reverse H4 trend....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 60 KB
  • #73,815
  • Edited 6:25am Aug 20, 2020 6:14am | Edited 6:25am
if Walmart losses the 129 handle on week. Aj should be in lock step. These are week supports. A week close below the 112 support opens floor to 107.53/107.28. A week and month close below 107.53/107.28. Hide the children. The north side of support is bullish. Closing below is not.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 27 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,816
  • Aug 20, 2020 6:21am Aug 20, 2020 6:21am
wait to reload shorts on Eu and EJ if bears can hold H1 downtrend..... if bears fail to hold.... I will go long....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 14 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.png Size: 15 KB
  • #73,817
  • Aug 20, 2020 6:27am Aug 20, 2020 6:27am
option expry info from Newsqawk..
we might be stuck here 1840s/50s for a while
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 61 KB
  • #73,818
  • Aug 20, 2020 6:49am Aug 20, 2020 6:49am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} month 7623.3, week 76.38-4, 76.34-5, day 76.49-4, 4h 76.61, 1h 76.74-3 close above needed. So far this month, bulls were unable to do it. {image}
It looks like ascending triangle bullish pattern but if using line chart it show more like exhaustion ascending triangle move. And when combine with a few other oscillator all showing bearish divergenece. Same structure On the NJ, Nj train already ran. Aj is just about time
  • #73,819
  • Aug 20, 2020 6:52am Aug 20, 2020 6:52am
Quoting Boulder
wait to reload shorts on Eu and EJ if bears can hold H1 downtrend..... if bears fail to hold.... I will go long.... {image} {image}
It seems too far from your data point. Next hour need to crash 40 pips and hold
  • #73,820
  • Aug 20, 2020 7:57am Aug 20, 2020 7:57am
Quoting gatorinla
eu 1h made a lower close. a 1h close below 1826.6 should open 1809/08 maybe 1790. a close below 1808 opens 1790. a 1h below 1790 opens 1783 or more. An h close above 1853 opens 1881 or more. 4h wise 1809 is support. a 4 h close below opens 1801 1783 or a 1736 test. 1714 is a big one for day. A day close below is probably b/o bearish. Above is still bullish {image}
below 1836.6 this h is bearish.. levels in above post. -1826.6 is stronger.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 17 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
26 traders viewing now