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Time and Price Forecasting

  • #2,501
  • Aug 17, 2020 6:26am Aug 17, 2020 6:26am
Quoting Swede
{quote} Well said Peter........I have noticed a lot of newcomers of late, many new to trading but all struggling with the issues of time and price, to those I would like to say this: There exists a simple way to trade the markets and that is price only. Fib levels, retracements and extensions, support resistance, supply demand, price action, fundamentals, 2000 indicators found in FF.....all trading only price....and get this..they all work with variable results if one becomes proficient with any of them. Just take pivot trading for example, daily...
Hi Partner, in regard of GANN, using time is not limited to large timeframes, it's just hard to draw low timeframes by hand at that time.
his method need a Major starting point only, the rest is the same on any timeframe, squaring time, price and grid will give you the correct 1*1

example on H1 GBPUSD using the top @ end of 2019 as Major starting point

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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rest of this year so far, the trading price still respect the cycles(time price grid) and angles

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doing the same thing from the low @ march as Major starting point, you will get the same results of respecting cycles and angles

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btw, you are using GANN sequence (1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512...etc) on Hurst channels, not time.

cheers,
"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #2,502
  • Aug 17, 2020 8:04am Aug 17, 2020 8:04am
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote} Hi Partner, in regard of GANN, using time is not limited to large timeframes, it's just hard to draw low timeframes by hand at that time. his method need a Major starting point only, the rest is the same on any timeframe, squaring time, price and grid will give you the correct 1*1 example on H1 GBPUSD using the top @ end of 2019 as Major starting point {image} rest of this year so far, the trading price still respect the cycles(time price grid) and angles {image} doing the same thing from the low @ march as Major starting point, you will...
Kwt4x

IMHO I do not think 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 etc. is a "Gann Sequence". I never saw such sequence in Gann writings. If you have Gann writings about it I would be glad to see it.

IMHO this "Gann Sequence" is originally much more a" Murrey Sequence" at least up to 64 !

Murrey in its original EOD Software used this serie up to 64 only.

Some guys were frustrated by various Murrey's software limitations and worked hard to bypass them. But God and Guru, at least his representant on Earth T.H. Murrey do not llke free minds just groupies.

Hence the use of the serie 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 etc.

At this time Using Excel you do not have to be a rocket scientist to understand and implement it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GANN HOW TO DIVIDE THE YEARLY TIME PERIOD.png Size: 127 KB
  • #2,503
  • Aug 17, 2020 8:14am Aug 17, 2020 8:14am
fridays close was five eights through the current year if you are seeking important time pivots
twitter: @gettoefl
  • #2,504
  • Aug 17, 2020 12:23pm Aug 17, 2020 12:23pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Kwt4x IMHO I do not think 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 etc. is a "Gann Sequence". I never saw such sequence in Gann writings. If you have Gann writings about it I would be glad to see it. IMHO this "Gann Sequence" is originally much more a" Murrey Sequence" at least up to 64 ! Murrey in its original EOD Software used this serie up to 64 only. Some guys were frustrated by various Murrey's software limitations and worked hard to bypass them. But God and Guru, at least his representant on Earth T.H. Murrey do not llke free minds just...
Parisboy

dividing time and price is to get the equal units, to get that, GANN use his sequence which is divide/multiply by 2
in case of levels(time or price) 1 1/2 1/4 1/8 1/16 1/32 ... etc
in case of angles, major angles are 1*1 1*2 1*4 1*8 etc or 2*1 4*1 8*1 etc

in regard of Murrey, he based his octaves formula to get GANN "Natural Price Levels"
GANN main 1/8's levels in dividing the dollar or 1 are 0 0.125 0.25 0.375 0.5 0.625 0.75 0.875 1

the example use 64 octave, you can see it start with .25 @ 0/8 and end up with .375 @ 8/8 , so, 64 octave will give you 1/8'th of the dollar or 1, but it change and give you the next 1/8'th when price break it, that's why most traders think MML repaint :/

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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so, using MML dynamic octaves or using fixed Natural Price Levels will give you the same results, which is knowing what level the current trading price at compared to the real exchange of currency.

cheers,
"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #2,505
  • Aug 17, 2020 12:42pm Aug 17, 2020 12:42pm
DM / Swede comments please om my interpretation.

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Trade Without Fear
  • #2,506
  • Aug 17, 2020 12:57pm Aug 17, 2020 12:57pm
I made this, something like Parisboy is using. It looks like it repaint, but it does not. Actually the calculation is not on the price itself. Works lovely. Possible buy today was +49.6 pips. Was not home so I can't trade it, sadly custom indi not possible on phone. Wonder if this will be reality someday... meh..

SF
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  • #2,507
  • Aug 17, 2020 4:24pm Aug 17, 2020 4:24pm
EUROUSD 1 H

Quadrilateral Follow-Up
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD QUADRILATERAL ENVELOPES 2 15 AOUT 2020.jpg Size: 166 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD QUADRILATERAL FOLLOW UP 17 AOUT 2020.jpg Size: 160 KB
  • #2,508
  • Edited 6:52pm Aug 17, 2020 5:51pm | Edited 6:52pm
Quoting parisboy
EUROUSD 1 H Quadrilateral Follow-Up {image} {image}
I am not sure if this is silly question or not but will ask anyway. How is this XABCD leg selected as its bit subjective or there are clear cut definition? I selected like you did but then I saw @rubernet selected XABCD differently. Is that because C is extended beyond A the pattern is invalid? I mean are there any clear cut definition or both pattern are valid?
Even with XA leg selection, depending on the swing selected it can be 382 or 618 or 786 retracement.
Thanks
  • #2,509
  • Aug 17, 2020 11:36pm Aug 17, 2020 11:36pm
Quoting Thakkx
{quote} I am not sure if this is silly question or not but will ask anyway. How is this XABCD leg selected as its bit subjective or there are clear cut definition? I selected like you did but then I saw @rubernet selected XABCD differently. Is that because C is extended beyond A the pattern is invalid? I mean are there any clear cut definition or both pattern are valid? Even with XA leg selection, depending on the swing selected it can be 382 or 618 or 786 retracement. Thanks
Hi Thakkx

My selection was a trial and question to Swede on what he posted how he uses the Quad and Emblem, please do not use what I posted as the way to select the pattern.
Trade Without Fear
  • #2,510
  • Aug 18, 2020 4:07am Aug 18, 2020 4:07am
EURUSD 1 H

Follow up of the previous Follow up

Bingo !

My gratitude to DM and Swede
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,511
  • Aug 18, 2020 4:21am Aug 18, 2020 4:21am
Quoting Thakkx
{quote} I am not sure if this is silly question or not but will ask anyway. How is this XABCD leg selected as its bit subjective or there are clear cut definition? I selected like you did but then I saw @rubernet selected XABCD differently. Is that because C is extended beyond A the pattern is invalid? I mean are there any clear cut definition or both pattern are valid? Even with XA leg selection, depending on the swing selected it can be 382 or 618 or 786 retracement. Thanks
Thakkx

it is not a silly question - but an important one. I will answer it later
  • #2,512
  • Edited 7:34am Aug 18, 2020 5:20am | Edited 7:34am
Quoting Thakkx
{quote} I am not sure if this is silly question or not but will ask anyway. How is this XABCD leg selected as its bit subjective or there are clear cut definition? I selected like you did but then I saw @rubernet selected XABCD differently. Is that because C is extended beyond A the pattern is invalid? I mean are there any clear cut definition or both pattern are valid? Even with XA leg selection, depending on the swing selected it can be 382 or 618 or 786 retracement. Thanks
Thakkx

May be this chart can answer your question.

Notice that my Chart was a"personalized" version of what I have understood a "Quadrilateral" is and how it works.

To build this "Quadrilateral" I have not use the Price itself but its smoothed version of the blue Envelope 32 Time Units based on the Centered Moving Average 32 Time Units.

Hence we get a "smoothed" version of the Prediction point D with a reduced Amplitude if we compare with a Quadrilateral based on the Price
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD QUADRILATERAL ENVELOPES PREDICTION ZONE 18 AOUT 2020.jpg Size: 72 KB
  • #2,513
  • Edited 5:48am Aug 18, 2020 5:38am | Edited 5:48am
Both charts compared incitate us to quote Diamond Miner : " Hi Guys, let me say this: the Quad, and Beck's Emblem are exceptional tools when used properly."

How can we define "properly" ? quote which is de facto appicable to ALL patterns.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD QUADRILATERAL ENVELOPES PREDICTION ZONE BASED ON PRICE 18 AOUT 2020.jpg Size: 65 KB
  • #2,514
  • Aug 18, 2020 5:44am Aug 18, 2020 5:44am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Thakkx May be this chart can answer your question. Notice that my Chart was a"personalized" version of what I have understood a "Quadrilateral" is and work. To build this "Quadrilateral" I have not use the Price itself but its smoothed version of the blue Envelope 32 Time Units based on the Centered Moving Average 32 Time Units. Hence we get a "smoothed" version of the Prediction point D with a reduced Amplitude if we compare with a Quadrilateral based on the Price {image}
Thanks PB for taking time to explain. It does make a bit but I am not entirely sure on which of the Quad prediction will work, i mean what other criteria it needs to tick to have an edge that our prediction will work based on Quad as there are many of this quad pattern forming. For example i have extended the prediction on your one and not sure why that CD leg will work or not work like you predicted the original BC leg. Or is it that i am just thinking too much
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Quad.PNG Size: 656 KB
  • #2,515
  • Edited Aug 19, 2020 5:32am Aug 18, 2020 6:03am | Edited Aug 19, 2020 5:32am
Quoting Thakkx
{quote} Thanks PB for taking time to explain. It does make a bit but I am not entirely sure on which of the Quad prediction will work, i mean what other criteria it needs to tick to have an edge that our prediction will work based on Quad as there are many of this quad pattern forming. For example i have extended the prediction on your one and not sure why that CD leg will work or not work like you predicted the original BC leg. Or is it that i am just thinking too much {image}
Thakkx

IMHO you made a typical and traditional confusion between a "prediction", a "forecast" and a probable scenario.

Since the beginning of "Technical Analysis" you have this confusion.

Price will reach 123456789 next Friday at 18.52 !

I tend much more on following a probable scenario and observe if it comes true or not

The Quadrilateral methodology allows us to build such a scenario .

a) Price is UP
b) Price is UP to Level X
c) Level X is near the outer Limit of the Envelope 256 Time Units (brown)

Target Price 1 (TP1) prediction is slightly under the Envelope 256 limit if we use the Quadilateral based on Envelope 32 Tops and Lows
Target Price 2 (TP2) prediction is slightly above the Envelope 256 limit if we use the Quadilateral based on Price Tops and Lows

Moreover (in this case) TP1 Prediction was exact for the Price Level and the Time when we used the Envelope 32 Time Units Tops and Lows

Next prediction TP2 was only exact for the Price when we used the Quadrilateral based on Prices Tops and Lows

It is not a real problem. We just have to observe and follow the Trend
  • #2,516
  • Aug 18, 2020 8:17am Aug 18, 2020 8:17am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Thakkx IMHO you made a typical and traditional confusion between a "prediction", a "forecast" and a probable scenario. Since the beginning of "Technical Analysis" you have this confusion. Price will reach 123456789 next Friday at 18.52 ! I tend much more on following a probable scenario and observe if it comes true or not The Quadrilateral methodology allows us to build such a scenario . a) Price is UP b) Price is UP to Level X c) Level X is near the outer Limit of the Envelope 256 Time Units (brown) Target Price 1 (TP1) prediction...
Thank you again for explaining the thinking that goes behind the probable scenario.
  • #2,517
  • Aug 18, 2020 4:29pm Aug 18, 2020 4:29pm
Quoting Swede
{quote} Sorry, I only follow GBP for this method... Euro takes too long to react and we all know time = risk...and the range intrday leaves me bored.....but the analyses for the Pound was bang on as it bounced off the 52....would have been a great trade for anyone who jumped on the overall trend....anyway, I totally missed it being away from my office. this was talked about last week...see second chart {image} {image} {image}
Hey Swede,

I note your very interesting diagram, comments about fixing scale and, your comment about price reacting to the 52-degree line.

I thought you might be interested in the screenshot below of the same chart/area of price. This is a "working" chart that I often refer to and I haven't touched/adjusted it for at least a month. A simple 1:1 Gann Line (red dashes) drawn from the last significant low (dated 29/06/2020 - 18:00) on the GU H1 chart is totally respected by price, after also previously respecting the Gann Line above it. I have compacted the screen in order to show the origin point from far back. I obviously don't generally make use the chart from this far out! In any event, I think you can also say that price bounced off the 1:1.

As far as scaling goes, there are no such issues with the Gann Line. Drop one on the chart, set its value and it can serve you very well with little to no attention whatsoever. What's nice about it is that you don't have to be constantly tinkering with your chart(s) and neither do you need second or subsequent price points in order to obtain a result.

Gann Lines from significant highs and lows are very adept at telling the story of price.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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More close up of the same chart.

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Click to Enlarge Name: room2.png Size: 105 KB

Cheers.
  • #2,518
  • Aug 18, 2020 7:25pm Aug 18, 2020 7:25pm
Experimenting with Gartley and measure move theory.
CADJPY H1, Gartley 618 on Angle 38 and Square Root from first bullish impulse. Will see how it turns out tomorrow, if we get the signal on 1H to enter on high of low bar. Retracement bit stretch compare to the first impulse, so will be interesting to see how it pan out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPYH1.png Size: 92 KB
  • #2,519
  • Aug 19, 2020 1:07pm Aug 19, 2020 1:07pm
GBPUSD H1, again will update either way how this one goes. Comment welcome please...

JSA 50% on 1/2 + Gartley TCG618 completion on 26 Angle and JRNL support from first impulse on 29 June.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1.png Size: 112 KB
  • #2,520
  • Aug 19, 2020 1:34pm Aug 19, 2020 1:34pm
Quoting Thakkx
GBPUSD H1, again will update either way how this one goes. Comment welcome please... JSA 50% on 1/2 + Gartley TCG618 completion on 26 Angle and JRNL support from first impulse on 29 June. {image}
Thakkx, well done.... of all the perverted versions and misguided attempts submitted lately of the Beck's Emblem and the proper application of the Quadrilateral, yours looks good, Bravo..... You have my respect. I'm still trading Coin, it's a been a Bull Market with some pullbacks, I buy the bottoms and sell the tops, going in one direction only. Currently even the shit coin can make you wealthy. I'm still +25K for the month, so it can happen to you too. God Bless America.
Good Luck
DM
You NEVER will be the person you could be, without pressure & discipline
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